Villain in this hand has 100% VPIP and has been occasionally blind 3betting.

Effective stacks are ~6K and hero has AcAdQc6s

Hero raises to 50 from HIJ over one limper, 2 callers, whale makes it 250 from the BB without looking, I repot to ~870 everyone else folds he calls.

Flop (1860) Qd8d7s
Whale checks, Hero?

Villain's 4bet call range is probably any hand that isn't trips. He has shown down only one bluff in the 3 hrs I've played with him where he donk bet into 4 ppl with complete air on a dry paired board, but other than that he's mostly calling down. If we bet the flop, are we committed to stacking off? Should we bet this flop at all?

check fold no set only one pair

Pretty clear bet/fold. I bet 2/3 pot here. You block top set and block NFD.

yeah too risky to commit against 99% range

bet all nfds and trips+, c/fold the rest

another pro move is to ask to check it down

I b/f like 1k. If he’s really aggro I check back and decide on turn. You have the best aces to b/f with and u should have some naked aa/aq that have good card removal for your b/f range as they have good equity vs c/c range and block c/r range

This is all really villain dependent though as I b/c vs super loose whales b/f against loose passive whales and check back against highly aggressive but thinking whales

I think you have 2 options. Either bet the pot and call off the rest or check behind and see how he reacts to a turn card. Bet/Folding is really weak, he will be check shoving with a lot of hands you have tons of equity against. The value of Bet/Calling really depends on the type of whale you are playing against. Given you are potting and repotting dark I imagine that he'll have enough hands with only 35-40% equity that you actually profit from getting in stacks on the flop

I actually like checking back a bunch. You can still rep the nut flush on later streets and your equity is going to probably go up a ton on the turn too. If you shove over his turn lead you'll probably be in a nice spot where he has about half as much equity. If the turn card is hideous you'll just have to play poker, at least you have position

it's seems like a marginal situation bet or check are both fine.. i think I would bet and hope to take it down since you block a lot of conceivable hands that can continue..

What’s the post flop tendencies of the whale?
I don’t like turning our hand into a bluff yet with two cards to come. I hate b/f here and hate having to call it off on the flop

I basically really like Waylander1’s analysis and thought process.


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I don't think checking back the flop is correct given villains wider than normal range. Bet sizing and whether hero can reasonably bet fold is up for debate but at minimum I have pot/call ahead of checkback.

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You are only about 56% against a random hand on this flop. You are going to have a lower percentage against his non-folding range, but it's not as if his folding range has 0 equity, so you have some fold equity with a bet. If you wait for the turn, you are a coin flip if the 6 hits and a 70% favorite if it is the 7.

It boils down to opponent tendencies. Does he check-raise the flop with a frequency that you will find annoying? If you check behind, will he become aggressive? Is he one of those guys who is just happy to bloat the pot pre, but plays kind of fit-or-fold post-flop? Does a naked ace bluff work against this guy if a diamond hits? Is always going to put you on aces here even if you have non-AA hands in your 4bet range?

Against some players like this, I have had success with checking behind on the flop, calling any turn bet with the intention of folding to a river bet unimproved unless you have a good feel for when he bluffs, and betting the turn if checked to again.

Mr. Mega Ultra Whale having such a wide range preflop makes bet/folding vs this player a really profitable option, especially with our good card removal

He's super sticky postflop but not that aggro. Saw him call a psb with KKJX on T86A board no fds OOP. He also just flatted mid pair + NFD against me earlier. He did make one weird spewy bluff that I described in the OP where he donked pot with no pair no draw into 4 opponents.

It is very unlikely you are crushed on this flop by a set. Pot it.

If the flush comes on turn check back in a suspicious looking manner and then try to rep it on the river. Do some acting.

Sounds like he is the type that it won't be too hard to read if he makes a straight on the turn. He will most likely lead out. I would fold then if so.

Also consider quickly going all in over him on the river if a straight comes in and you think he is betting two pair lightish and will fold.

I honestly cannot tell who is trolling me in this thread.

General consensus seems to be that you should be betting in this spot. The slight disagreement is on the sizing. Bet sizings are one of the most difficult things to determine in poker, given there's almost an infinite amount of sizings to choose from, so it's not a surprise you have varying answers.

Until the game is "solved", we may never know the GTO sizing in this spot. Just bet something.

Nah. I’m in the check back flop camp, especially is he is tighter post flop. Tighter post flop means he is calling flop bets with hands that are ahead of us or drawing.

If we just look at villains drawing range, then there are 12 true brick cards on the turn that hero can assume won’t change villains range much, non diamond K, 4, 3, and 2. So if we bet flop and villain calls, we can double barrel 25% of turn cards ( which will always fold his 1pair hands that have equity against us but only sometimes fold his 2pair hands)

75% of the time we would have to check back, or villain may lead turn and we have to sigh fold or we can bet again if checked to. but at this point we have to go with it because we are passed the commitment threshold. I don’t like going with it because if the aggression after betting turn is from villain by way of check raise, we are almost always way behind.

I haven’t been convinced from the posts itt that mathematically it’s Better to bet flop.
If we check back flop we get the same information about villains range than if we bet flop, especially if he is tightish post flop. So I’d rather not risk surrendering my equity by betting


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This deep I usually dont 4b

Against this villain who blind 3b making this exception is extremely reasonable as he will be 3b/calling extremely dominated hands that arent flopping smooth

I definitely see merits to checking back and take this line 50% of the time

The other 50% i Bet small 20-30% of pot (~$400-450)

Based on your description of villain (Saw him call a psb with KKJX on T86A board no fds OOP), for this bet size villain wont just turbo pot any old draws as he is getting a "good price" to call and he should assume we are stacking aces (how exploitable are you playing if your main 4b hand is folding to x/r on all but the nutted boards, which are obvious to even the worst whales "villain 4b me is ace high board he haz AAA").

If villain x/r we save ourselves a grand or so with b/f line

If turn is clean I would bet maybe 50% of pot as typically fish play this street more face up and will still float off some beat hands

im taking the check back and small bet lines 50/50

If villain is turbo gambler I would take the check back 100%. If villain is loose passive and folds/peels a bunch would take the 20-30% 100%

against this guy the small bet option could be very decent 100%

this is a great way to get looked up on the river
it's pretty horrendous actually

Haha. I especially like the tank, play with the chips, and a soft tap on the table


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Pre is so bad.

I strongly disagree with the bet/fold argument. Here's the thing: You find yourself in a 3.5 SPR situation heads up as the aggressor. Odds of him flopping a set or two pair is only ~12% (unless he happened to have an XXYY type hand, which is fairly uncommon).

So that leaves a **** ton of drawing hands he can have. Pair + flush draw, Pair + straight draw, wrap, wrap with flush draw, naked flush draw, naked straight draw, etc.

Yes it is true that you are an underdog against some of these draws. However if you were to bet 1k and get raised all in.... you're only needing to call 4K and there will already be about 4k in the middle. So ~33% equity needed, and you likely have that against majority of draws.

Not to mention you have great blockers. He can't have nut flush draw. You block a possible straight out. You block top set. The Q also blocks many two pair combos.

So IMO this is an easy spot to just bet and GII. If he was lucky enough to flop a set... so be it.

troll

Tough spot - You want to get to show down but you block top set.

With out the Q or Ad I think it's a pretty easy check back

With those cards it's gonna be a spot where you can go ether way.

I don't mind a check back vs a whale - it's very unlikely he is going to fold to a bet, and the board can get gross and you will have a tough spot in a bloated pot.

He could also very easily over value KKxx Qxxx or any straight draw which is why I don't like a bet/fold. Also fish will go all in with any pair to try and get lucky.

I think the way you played it - if you do decide to bet, you can't really fold.

This is why I kind of like a check back vs this kind of player. Try and get to showdown as cheaply as possible.

If you are friendly with him - ask him to check it down if you want the lowest variance possible. Whales will usually not care - and you would be surprised how often they agree.

Tough to say what the most +EV approach is with these stack sizes.

I think if I do decide to bet though I would do 66% pot.

I like a bet/fold
If he calls , then go to showdown unless A or Q comes obv
As for sizing anywhere between 1k-1.5k is fine imo