Quote:
Originally Posted by VerdantDevil
General consensus seems to be that you should be betting in this spot. The slight disagreement is on the sizing. Bet sizings are one of the most difficult things to determine in poker, given there's almost an infinite amount of sizings to choose from, so it's not a surprise you have varying answers.
Until the game is "solved", we may never know the GTO sizing in this spot. Just bet something.
Nah. I’m in the check back flop camp, especially is he is tighter post flop. Tighter post flop means he is calling flop bets with hands that are ahead of us or drawing.
If we just look at villains drawing range, then there are 12 true brick cards on the turn that hero can assume won’t change villains range much, non diamond K, 4, 3, and 2. So if we bet flop and villain calls, we can double barrel 25% of turn cards ( which will always fold his 1pair hands that have equity against us but only sometimes fold his 2pair hands)
75% of the time we would have to check back, or villain may lead turn and we have to sigh fold or we can bet again if checked to. but at this point we have to go with it because we are passed the commitment threshold. I don’t like going with it because if the aggression after betting turn is from villain by way of check raise, we are almost always way behind.
I haven’t been convinced from the posts itt that mathematically it’s Better to bet flop.
If we check back flop we get the same information about villains range than if we bet flop, especially if he is tightish post flop. So I’d rather not risk surrendering my equity by betting
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk