Guess players first, i havent played on stars for a while so i have only old stats on damian and few hands for the others (like 50).

BB 3better is Damiancho, 5/10 10/20 reg, according to some old stats he was 3betting 10% total, in this spot however his range should be pretty strong, but obv not only good aces (do i have to write this?)

CO is greg1osu 20/14, multitables and pretty tight so far, not much 3betting
BTN is javel 48/17 who seems pretty loose and fishy
SB is MauriceSch 40/26 who seems pretty laggy

even though i definitly should call preflop equity wise, i was wondering if my bad position makes this a fold pre because of flop spots like this


Poker Stars $5/$10 Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

CO: $1008.75
BTN: $2599.00
SB: $1686.00
BB: $1000.00
UTG: $1000.00
Hero (MP): $1073.00

Pre Flop: ($15.00) Hero is MP with T J Q Q
1 fold, Hero raises to $35, CO calls $35, BTN calls $35, SB calls $30, BB raises to $210, Hero calls $175, CO calls $175, BTN calls $175, SB calls $175

Flop: ($1050.00) 4 J 5 (5 players)
SB checks, BB bets $790 all in, Hero ...

fold flop...

Absolutely. You got squeezed and BB is gonna jam many dry flops, squeezing you again. How do you continue without a Q or 2pair? or even with a fd ?

Do you know what % this hand flops a set 2 pair or 89? Is there a program for this ?? I've been looking but haven't found one. If you could determine for sure what % we flop X hand or better then we could determine what stack sizes it is okay to call off preflop when we expect $Y return from the implied odds.

Calling preflop and folding flop > calling preflop and shoving flop > folding preflop

fold flop, hand is played fine

Don't know of program
2 pair- 2%
set- 11%
89-4%
ak-4%
fd-13%

No other player hand assumptions

i feel its too big of a raise in contrast to your stack to flat this profitably. your counting on the other guys to flat as well and not "wazz" it up and trap everyone in with their rundowns. Are you prepared to call off $800 more? You position sucks that theres 3 people behind you. It makes such a big difference because we can assume BB is jamming any flop and since your next to act you may kill your action by calling off on flops we hit hard whereas if we were near the back of the pack there can be a BB shove and a light reshove from god knows what that we have crushed. People spazz out a lot in RR pots IMO and its always better being the one sitting in the weeds near the BTN.

Sorry to say, and you are prolly miles ahead of me in plo, but how can you think you are good here?

I think your assumption on his flop leads might be a little too high. Whether thats good or bad is debatable though.

With it going 5 way, I don't think we can expect him to be blindy shoving a ton of flops.

I like calling pre. I like folding the flop.


If we change the hand to AQJT how does that change everyones flop decision? How would having the Ac vs Ah effect your thought process?

the question isnt him being good on the flop, cause he rarely is, its if his call pf is profitable given the context of this hand

raise or fold pre

/thread

i like the way you played it. the hand works well multi-way, so i'm definitely not folding this pre, even with the squeeze.

In a vacuum vs a more standard line-up im actually leaning towards a fold PF...i think, im not sure atm...

i have zero basis to prove this but i think preflop is a fold, but im calling most any unpaired hand

I also think in magic-theory land that this is probably a fold preflop, but show me a player who does it regularly and i'll show you a money-hemorrhaging nit

i snap pre

i have a db with all the flopping frequencies data, at the wrong computer to look it up but i'm pretty sure you've got duplication in here (i.e. you calc'd each of these independently and some flops are in two groups) also, set/boat together is a little over 12%.

if we knew no one would backraise it's gotta be a call, we're getting it in crushing someone pretty often on our good flops. And since greg is the only one I'd be worried about having AA, I think call. The math Recon described is a little trickier when we aren't closing action pre and will often have a 4+ way pot with the chance of multiway allins and I wouldnt be shocked if my instinct is wrong in this exact case. Generally, calling 20% of stack w QQJTss is easily +ev.

Hand is fine, don't fold preflop, definitely fold flop.

With these stacks I don't really like calling preflop, but folding feels really weak. Your hand is so hard to play and you will make some incorrect folds on low flops. I probably just fold preflop if playing well. I call flop as played.

We do have 3 players to act behind us yeah? This is crazy.

crazy is lighting a $1 bill, using the flame to light a cigar, and putting the singed bill back in your wallet.
crazy.

Preflop is debatable (vs that lineup I call without thinking) but calling or shoving flop is pretty close to lighting money on fire.

So vs the top 8% of hands which is tighter than his standard 3 bet frequency we have 32% equity (we need 30% to call). I would imagine he has a tighter than his 3 bet stats would indicate in that spot, but I would imagine hes still 3 betting his good rundowns. So we probably have slightly more equity than this sim shows.

board: Jc5c4h
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
QdJdQsTh 32.32% 189,809 8,230
8% 67.68% 401,961 8,230


There are 3 people left to act, but on this board texture there are very few combos of hands that we don't have equity to get it in with. These combos are mainly sets where we have 10% equity. Since we hold a J the most likely set is much less as people have fewer combos of 44/55 in there preflop range.

Just to clarify, even if we want to give credit to the notion of a "top 8% of hands" (I haven't broken down how PPT assigns it's values, but a system for that runs a hand's allin expectation against a random holding, for instance, is of very dubious value in this game) our decision still isn't based on our perceived equity against his 3betting range, it's based on our perceived equity against those elements of his 3betting range which he open-shoves into four callers.

Similarly, that his 3bet % is 8 in no way suggests that his "3bet pot out of BB after a raise and 3 callers" is anywhere near that high.

Surely we don't think he's open potting hands like AKQ3 with no clubs here? 9988?




The combos that we're actually worried here are hands like 5678cc, KKcc, AAcc, AJKcc; these hands have us in bad bad shape. No wrap is folding behind us; big clubs are sticking around, and any additional player who decides to take this to showdown really cuts into our already marginal EV.