UTG is a loose aggro fish, MP is a solid reg. When MP raised, based on timing and history, I strongly felt like he had a set. According to propoker tools, I have a approx 38% against qq**,77**, and 55**. If i start adding in really strong wraps + FDs, and random two two + FDs my equity rises slightly to 40%. If my math is right, I need 46% to get it in w/ MP assuming UTG folds. If utg comes along, then I'm assuming my GS is dead as are some of my clubs prob if he has like KKxx of clubs or something, tho I think I have to assume hes going to fold a lot if I ship... Anyway, would like your guys opinion before I show my move.

Full Tilt Poker $5/$10 Pot Limit Omaha Hi $1.50 Ante - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: $1187.50
BB: $4885.00
UTG: $3964.00
MP: $1973.00
Hero (CO): $2555.00
BTN: $1789.00

Pre Flop: ($24.00) Hero is CO with 5 3 A 6
UTG raises to $40, MP calls $40, Hero calls $40, 2 folds, BB calls $30

Flop: ($174.00) Q 7 5 (4 players)
BB checks, UTG bets $130, MP raises to $560

Interesting hand.

I think this depends on how often the fish cbets, and how light he stacks off. If he cbets alot and folds to raise a lot, this is a fold. If the fact that he cbet here = he has a hand he's going with, then it's (marginally) a call or ship, whichever you think will keep the fish in. Notice that you have like ~600 only covered by the fish, which helps.

I've always just folded and can't see a better option

yeah, since you'll be committing a big mistake if you think the fish is calling and he folds, I think folding might be the more sensible option this deep.

welllll what kind of fish folds here?

I hate it but I guess I fold. If you think you have any significant FE with MP than its a ship though. Would MP fold a hand like Q987 no clubs or 55xx no clubs to ur reraise?

Also exactly how loose aggro is this fish?

ye i just fold here too, but i agrree with 2handed that if you think MP has a folding range here you should proly shove.

i never ever fold hands like this. as other people said, nut fd + gs. but you also have 1pair, which can make trips or aces up and give you the best hand. plus backdoor fd... never ever folding. snap shove imo.

I ship.

200 shallower I ship faster.

200 or 300 deeper I go into tank and probably go away very unhappily.

ship

for all the same reasons im always shoving here.

+1

it sucks but you have to toss it in the garbage bin.

Give me this hand and i ship all day everyday man

if you fold this.

I am scared. Borat style

this

Way above my stakes, but isn't just calling IP an option?
If UTG comes along, we're getting great odds to draw to our GS + NFD 3 way, if UTG wants to stack off, we're happy to stack off 3 way.

If UTG drops out, we're IP on the turn and depending on his actions, his hand will be face up and we can play perfectly against it on whatever comes on the turn without risking our entire stack that deep.

Either way, I think folding a hand that strong on the flop is terrible. If you're folding a flop on which you hit a GS + NFD 3 way IP, why are you even calling with that hand PF?

Surprised more didnt mention call as an option. During the hand, as I said, I really had a strong feeling he had qq. I figured I could make pretty good decisions on a lot of different turns. Hearts, clubs, a 4 and an 8 I think I can pretty easily get it in. Also I figured calling would let me get AI if UTG reshoves and might tempt UTG to flat a decent amnt. As it turned out the turn was pretty crappy and I didn't think I was getting odds, although it was close.

It's hard to model the EV of the flat accurately imo, esp with UTGs actions/hand unknown, but what do you guys think?


Full Tilt Poker $5/$10 Pot Limit Omaha Hi $1.50 Ante - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: $1187.50
BB: $4885.00
UTG: $3964.00
MP: $1973.00
Hero (CO): $2555.00
BTN: $1789.00

Pre Flop: ($24.00) Hero is CO with 5 3 A 6
UTG raises to $40, MP calls $40, Hero calls $40, 2 folds, BB calls $30

Flop: ($174.00) Q 7 5 (4 players)
BB checks, UTG bets $130, MP raises to $560, Hero calls $560, BB folds, UTG calls $430

Turn: ($1854.00) T (3 players)
UTG bets $1854, MP calls $1371.50 all in, Hero requests TIME, Hero folds

River: ($4597.00) 6 (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $4597.00
UTG shows A 7 7 3 (three of a kind, Sevens)
MP shows J Q Q J (three of a kind, Queens)
MP wins $4594.00
(Rake: $3.00)

callling on flop and folding turn in this spot is like the absolute worst way to play it.

Think you have to call turn once it goes in 3 ways, flop is close to anything but a fold.

Think you can be confidant your gs is cleaner based on the way money went in, basically. Not many draws either player gets in this way because the fish gets any big draws in on the flop and other villain has to be worried about you holding lots of his outs. I'd be more excited if MP snap-shoved than tank-shoved.

Folding is correct turn, shouldn't be called.

I mean our equity against 55**, 77** and QQ** are = 24,71%

And we need to be good 40 % of the time to make turn a valueable call?

But i think the decision should be taken on flop.
There are to many turns where we are not going to continue when he pots, cause our equity sucks - so i would shove it flop and get it in - even though he got QQ we still have around 38-39-40 % of winning the hand + the times that UTG ends up calling talks for shoving.

we need around 27% to call the turn, I think its real close because there is very often dead clubs and someone blocks our gutshot or has a wrap that leaves it dead

On the flop, given you have Ac, MP has a set v often. And assuming UTG is folding most of the time given action, you have:

Board: qh7c5c
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
ac3c5h6h 39.41%
qq**,77**,68*c*c 60.59%

Against him (I even included 68cc). You need waaay more to ship profitably (it's not even close, so i won't bother calculating it... it's >45% i think).

On the turn, you have:

board: qh7c5ctd
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
ac3c5h6h 23.72%
qq**,77**,68*c*c 59.55%
77**,kck*c*,qt** 16.73%

You need approximately 27% (no not 40%) to call profitably. So it's a fold again

made a post, then looked at comp eng's sims and agree with him