5/10 I got berated for this - Small Stakes Pot Limit Omaha

40 BB CAP PLO

Opener is LAGgy. I have a tight image and havent 3-bet a lot. Is this shove profitable or just spewy?

Full Tilt Poker $1000.00 40BB Cap Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (SB): $1740.25
BB: $961.20
UTG: $517.00
MP: $396.75
CO: $4077.95
BTN: $664.25

Pre Flop: ($15.00) Hero is SB with Q

2 folds, CO raises to $30, BTN calls $30, Hero raises to $130, BB calls $120, CO calls $100, BTN calls $100

Flop: ($520.00) A

(4 players)
Hero bets $270.00 and is all-in

Quote

04-02-2010 , 11:52 PM

yellowsub

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 4,095

i think u should c/f, but anyone berating anyone in cap plo is pretty lol

also i have no math to back that up, just spidey sense

Quote

04-02-2010 , 11:53 PM

spino1i

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 8,711

So i suppose trying to get someone off a weak ace is out of the question given the LOL POT ODDZ they are getting right?

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04-03-2010 , 12:09 AM

ChuckBass

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 1,908

i don't think this is that bad, BB and button can't really call (unless they're fish) with less than A8 with people left after them to act + how strong you've played it. once you've 3bet pre i think the shove is +ev.

don't like 3betting fairly weak KK pre here where we're almost always guarenteed callers though, so many flops we have to c/f on multiway, feels like a waste.

Quote

04-03-2010 , 12:35 AM

cts

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 7,736

i think it's pretty close. i would jam but i could be convinced otherwise.

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04-03-2010 , 01:20 AM

CompEng

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 446

I never play cap but I can't understand how can this not be bad with 3 others in the pot?

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChuckBass

I reaaaaally doubt AKxx folds here after calling pre, let alone AKxx+gutter or more. AJTx is never folding, etc

Quote

04-03-2010 , 02:12 AM

spino1i

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 8,711

Quote:

Originally Posted by CompEng

I never play cap but I can't understand how can this not be bad with 3 others in the pot?

I reaaaaally doubt AKxx folds here after calling pre, let alone AKxx+gutter or more. AJTx is never folding, etc

yeh im not sure what chuck's talking about. Pre is super standard and very +EV in cap/shallow.

Quote

04-03-2010 , 08:16 AM

jamiezig

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 605

did you get berated when a K fell on the turn?

someone might fold like A765 here if you bet, but that's a very small % the hands with an A out there. the rest of them are obv. calling. but it's still close. you almost always have between 15-25% equity, so you'd only need 3 folds a pretty small % of the time to make shoving the right play.

Quote

04-03-2010 , 09:00 AM

Micturition Man

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2003 Posts: 5,159

I would ship versus two people, check versus 3.

ETA - Hmm.... for 1/2 pot... maybe I would just ship.

Quote

04-03-2010 , 09:15 AM

#10

grizy

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 20,573

with just over 1/2 pot left, I'd bet praying nobody got an ace.

Getting an A to fold is lol.

Quote

04-03-2010 , 09:22 AM

#11

HeyEveryone

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 639

fold, its pretty often ur only outs ar runner runner.

Quote

04-03-2010 , 09:36 AM

#12

Micturition Man

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2003 Posts: 5,159

Yeah going to backpedal and say that I would ship it. The problem with checking is you can't necessarily even fold to a bet depending on how the action goes.

Quote

04-03-2010 , 02:11 PM

#13

cts

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Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 7,736

I mean if you get it in heads up you only need 25.5% equity.

Against a best case for you A*** you have 31.5%. If he has one of your side cards covered you still are getting the right price with 26.0% equity.

Combined with the chance you have the best hand, everyone folds, etc. Gotta ship.

Quote

04-03-2010 , 02:53 PM

#14

spino1i

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 8,711

results: I shipped and the table fish snapped me of with QQxx which held and then him and another guy at the table started berating me. lulz

Quote

04-03-2010 , 08:36 PM

#15

Foldemlow

banned

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 1,716

Against three players with top 20% of hands ranges (I doubt anyone's in there with weaker than that), you have 12% equity on that board...

Against 3 hands in the top 15%, your equity drops to 10.5%.

Of course, you're folding some of the hands that have equity against your hand when you shove the flop.
You might fold bottom 2 (maayyyybe), etc...
But still, I'd be surprised if this were +EV. Considering it's BE at best, I'd probably just fold and avoid the unnecessary variance

Quote

04-03-2010 , 08:53 PM

#16

HeyEveryone

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 639

I actually think fold em low did the best analysis of this situation.

Quote

04-03-2010 , 10:21 PM

#17

Micturition Man

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2003 Posts: 5,159

I actually think fold em low did the worst analysis of this situation.

Quote

04-03-2010 , 10:51 PM

#18

HeyEveryone

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 639

Can u 'splain? This is probably the most right vs CTS and other solid posters such as urself I've felt in awhile.

Quote

04-03-2010 , 11:07 PM

#19

ChuckBass

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 1,908

Quote:

Originally Posted by HeyEveryone

Can u 'splain? This is probably the most right vs CTS and other solid posters such as urself I've felt in awhile.

im guessing he's referring to the part about the other 3 never having worse than top20% hands, which I have to agree with. Calling the 3bet definately does not indicate this in your average cap game.

Quote

04-03-2010 , 11:19 PM

#20

Poker monkey

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 2,642

cts is nearly always right, but here the 26% he mentions is for your hand vs Axxx, which is a lot different from top 20% etc, and as he says, is a "best case" when you get called.

Foldemlow's analysis probably doesn't take out AA** from the top 20%, in which case our equity is better than the figures he gives.

Quote

04-03-2010 , 11:26 PM

#21

Foldemlow

banned

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 1,716

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChuckBass

im guessing he's referring to the part about the other 3 never having worse than top20% hands, which I have to agree with. Calling the 3bet definately does not indicate this in your average cap game.

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

board: a

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
kcqckh2s	16.29%	94,657	6,295
35%	27.97%	159,296	17,277
35%	27.84%	158,548	17,179
35%	27.91%	158,899	17,303

Perhaps 35% is still too narrow of a range.
I should try with 75% PF and see what I come up with.
Wait, this is 5/10, not .5/.10, right?

There you go, this is what you need, 25% equity.

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

board: a

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
kcqckh2s	25.66%	151,085	5,804
90%	24.75%	143,130	10,890
90%	24.83%	143,605	10,883
90%	24.75%	143,102	10,958

You'd better be pretty sure they're calling the 3Bet with at least 90% PF, because it's still BE.

Otoh, I'm always happy to learn something and would be glad to hear a well articulated argument about why this analysis is the worst in the history of 2+2, rather than "this is the worst analysis ever, the end".

Trust me, I'll be the first one to admit I'm wrong. Just find it hard doing that without any given reasons.

Btw Micturition, perfect location, you don't say....

Quote

04-03-2010 , 11:30 PM

#22

Foldemlow

banned

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 1,716

Quote:

Originally Posted by Poker monkey

This is a really good point, I actually hadn't taken out AAxx from the top % of hands.

But to my own surprise, it really doesn't change much:

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

board: a

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
kcqckh2s	17.91%	104,114	6,782
35% ! aa**	27.36%	154,818	18,890
35% ! aa**	27.31%	154,481	18,947
35% ! aa**	27.43%	155,320	18,762

And 35% is a really optimistic estimate.

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

board: a

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
kcqckh2s	26.92%	158,532	6,016
90% ! aa**	24.34%	140,451	11,269
90% ! aa**	24.41%	140,896	11,220
90% ! aa**	24.33%	140,390	11,340

Quote

04-04-2010 , 12:48 AM

#23

Praetor

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 11,807

lol gaining 9% doesnt really change much?

Quote

04-04-2010 , 01:15 AM

#24

Foldemlow

banned

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 1,716

Quote:

Originally Posted by Praetor

lol gaining 9% doesnt really change much?

lol, need glasses?

The two tables aren't for the same PF range. One is for our hand against top 35% and the other against top 90% of hands.

Compare with the same ranges in my previous post (AAxx included) and you'll see that taking away AAxx makes our hand against three top 35% go from 16.29% to 17.91% equity and our hand against top 90% from 25.56% to 26.92%.

Not a 9% diffence, around a 1.5% difference. Not much, like I was saying.
Please take the time to read the post before laughing out loud...

Quote

04-04-2010 , 02:02 AM

#25

Praetor

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 11,807

Quote

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