Full Tilt Poker $600.00 Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (CO): $684.00
BTN: $639.00
SB: $550.00
BB: $876.00
UTG: $940.60

Pre Flop: ($9.00) Hero is CO with K 7 K 8
UTG raises to $21, Hero raises to $72, 3 folds, UTG calls $51

Flop: ($153.00) 8 6 2 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $114.00, UTG calls $114

Turn: ($381.00) 3 (2 players)
UTG bets $381.00, He has $117 more, I need 36% equity to go with it

he shoved turn pretty fast


Villain seems like a basically functioning ******, hes like 70/30, just 25 hands, we played one other pot that he won, dont think its too relevant.

My basic question is, what hands do people show up with here most of the time? My own intuition/experience with fish would say that they usually check the nuts here because but if all the cards were slightly higher on the board I think it becomes a pretty easy fold, but in this situation I think I see a decent amount of spazzy stuff, but is it enough?

Vs a 70/30 villain I think i'm folding here. Presumably he's calling the 3b with any 4. As the 3 doesn't add any draws it makes it more likely he has 2p, I think you're right about him not having the straight though. I've been in this spot too many times and called to see crap like 7643 or something similar.

this doesnt look like 54, but i still think he has you beat. if he had a hand like 89TQss hes potting the flop, so on the turn he doesnt have less than two pair in my opinion

the type of player you described don't show pair + w/e draw in this spot often imo.

i expect any 2 pair 83 or worse most of the time and the straight sometimes too.

i get really pi$$ed off when i shove and i see they open potted with the nuts.

Folding in this spot is very exploitable, IMO. Obv villain doesn't have a fd, most likely he has turned 2 pair but it could be just a turned gutter to go with his pair so he is shoving for some fold equity. Easy shove with the oesd.

I would fold pretty quickly. dont think he has less than 2p very often with this line and the nuts is probably a pretty big part of his range with this board structure.

i'd fold for sure.

he has 2pair

i'd fold, and wait for a better spot to stack him. no need to play guessing games with just one pair on a draw heavy board

Meh, I somehow saw that 8 as a 9 on the board, we don't have oesd so it's a fold. After running some simulations it looks like even if we have oesd it's close.

Hmmm I'm kinda surprised at Cole's reply, I thought it was way closer. Are we folding mainly because we're facing such a fishy and hence presumably uncreative player? Are we calling against other types of players?

i mean what do you expect him to show up with? i think he will

A.) have the nuts a lot
B.) have two pair. against an awful two pair we are only 25%

board: 8s 6s 2c 3h
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
Kd 7c Ks 8d 25.00% 10 0
2h 3c 9d 9s 75.00% 30 0

he has to be running a semibluff a TON and there just aren't that many that don't semibluff the flop and then go nuts on this turn.

Good point. The simulation is kinda eye opening.

Just a quick reflection: from villain's POV, if we are folding overpair+pair here, I guess it's more profitable for him to take this line (check/call flop, openshove turn) rather than check/shoving flop with the bottom of his continuing range, e.g. QT98 type of hands.

I mean, thinking/tough villains are sure to use this thought process at least some % of the time, right? That's why I initially figured the turn decision was closer. I guess against this type of villain you could fold it everytime though.