Live 5/10/25 rock texas/omaha split game.

9-handed.

Button: super-action player. will call any raise preflop, and call light until the river. Winning ~40% of the hands.
SB: hero has been very quiet. occasional calls preflop/fold flop entire session.
MP: super-action player. will raise 80% of hands preflop. if he's stacking chips/getting drink/etc. on his pre-flop action he'll raise blind.
MP+1: tight-weakish player.
Cutoff: reputed to be fishy. Played quiet so far.

Hero's only history is 2 sessions with MP+1.


Hero dealt: AAJ7

MP (~$8k): posts $25 rock
Btn (~$10k): posts $150 double-straddle
Hero ($2100): raises to $400
MP (~$8k): pots to $1400
MP+1 ($1625): All-in for $1625
CO: (~$4k): call $1625
Btn (~$10k): call $1625

Pot: $6,685.

Hero ($1700) ?

After reading some other recent threads it looks like the forum consensus is, mathematically, AAxx is an auto-push regardless of other players' ranges.

CO and BTN never have AAxx and MP can easily just be attacking your attack on the straddle (especially since he has position on you and probably thinks he can outplay you postflop). On top of that you are a basically playing a short-stack in a game with $150 straddles. If you found this to be one of the most difficult spots in your session I hope you are just playing for fun and not to win money.

Hoopman thanks for the reply. At the time I didn't necessarily think another player had AA although I was suspicious that with so much action there could be 1 or 2 suited aces in MP+1/COs hands.

When I raised I was ready to insta-push against 2 opponents, but after seeing 4 people each willing to put $2000 in to see a flop, I stopped to reconsider.

FWIW I was not expecting a mix game, I came to play holdem, but I do sometimes play omaha for fun.

probably worst thread ever if not a troll

of course someone has AA, of course thiers are suited. you have a bad omaha hand 5 ways. but u are playing with 10 BB effective. jfc, push and reload.

super action player repops shallow, u wonder what to do w good aces.

csb.

In case you missed it, there were 4 other players in the hand, not just that 1.

What are "good aces" and "bad aces"? J7s doesn't seem like particularly strong kickers.

More players with worse hands = more money for you to win. You should be happier about this going 6 ways than if it were HU. If you are going to play short stacked hands like AAxx and KKxx are what you are looking for. I would have went all in with any KKxx in your spot.

He doesn't know what he's talking about, your aces are terrible. Your kickers are bad like you suggested but being unsuited to either ace is what makes them really crappy. They are bottom 5% of all aces for sure. Still, any AAxx hand is always good enough to stroke yourself because you are so happy to get them in.

What can hero other do than ship? You're playing 10bb poker and you have aces.

That certainly factored into my decision. If my math is right: I can win $8,110 if i push my last $1,700. That's ~4.8:1. So I need 18+% equity. (at the time of my decision, I estimated I needed 20% equity to mathetmatically justify a push).

If I were to pokerstove this, what range would you assign to MP+1/CO ... given my description that they've played relatively quiet/normal, but in this hand are calling a 3-bet?

I actually start the hand with 14x the double-straddle. Not sure if you're rounding down 14 -> 10, or if there's another measure of BB I'm not aware of?

I don't disagree with the forum consensus, but as an inexperienced PLO player, I'm trying to get a handle on exactly why this decision is so obvious.

Thank you for polite reply.

The decision is obvious because you are short stacked and will be hard pressed to find a better way to get your money in. The other short stacked player shoved all in and does not necessarily have aces, and as it has been mentioned the only other player really even capable of holding aces in this spot will be MP, that you described as raising every hand, which greatly reduces that risk.

I understand why you are hesitating because your aces are not "good" ones, but honestly there aren't going to be much better spots than this with that short of a stack to get money all in preflop like this.

For fun I ran the best case scenario I could think of, which gives me 4% edge on my pot odds:

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

493,566 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
AcAhJs7s	21.49%	100,651	10,970
10%	20.43%	96,083	9,631
10%	20.36%	95,723	9,606
*!rrr	18.95%	89,921	7,303
*!rrr	18.77%	89,077	7,227

Shouldnt the 3b sizing be bigger, which would in turn make it an easier decision now? Call either way

^this you should raise pot-sized pre flop

biggest mistake imo not full potting it pre this shallow.

MP+1 should have a top 15% hand that doesn't include KK or AA. CO has a top 25% hand that doesn't include AA and unlikely KK either.

I am shocked at this. I thought you were a complete moron who wasn't capable of even counting when I read OP... if you actually got to this point and were just unsure if you had 20% with AAxx then you just need to spend more time understanding PLO equities.

Why would you exclude AA/KK from the hand of a tight player who's just gone all-in?

I capped MP+1/CO at 10% because they were playing less than 1 hand an orbit even when only faced with a single raise from the action players, and until then they'd never called a 3bet or overcalled another tight player.

I appreciate your thoughtful responses despite your opinion of me. Understanding the game better is why i'm posting.

At the time of my decision... I was unsure about the relative strength of my hand against my opponents ranges.

My thinking at the time was "in a 5 player pot, a single pair isn't going to win at showdown. How likely am I to improve with this hand?"

I wouldn't... I meant CO and BTN. I would say MP+1 could be anywhere from 15-20% of hands but it's not worth arguing about because it doesn't change you equity too drastically.

theyre not terrible , not just good. i thought he was suited to the ace. w/e , ive posted in here for yrs and i misread one OP, it's still a ship, as you point out.

to OP: do some calculations vs 4 villains and you'll find out that folding is weak. yes you won't be a favourite in the hand LDO, but that kind of reasoning makes you look like weak money. you need equity not the likeliness to win the hand.

also, i read this initially like u had a 8k stack, must thought of another hand or smt. uve already got 400 in right? time to ship it and realize u will be losing the pot most of the time, and make money on the decision.

I guess we would have to define "terrible" but it doesn't really matter
Yes, my comment was badly worded and re-reading it now I can it is a pretty big slam. It was not intended that way I just often type too fast and say it as I am thinking it at the time. I've misread posts and obviously one typo or oversight doesn't make you an idiot.

just mad at myself for missing obv stuff like that in a hand lol

im kind of interested in some sims/stats on this situation, but in bed and lazy atm.

this is a really, really bad way to approach spots like this.

also, something i havent seen mentioned on a skim of the thread, apologies if i missed it somewhere, is that often postflop some ppl will get bet off some small to smallish amount of equity which gives your own ev a free bump beyond what an equity sim might suggest it to be.

If I did the pokerstats correctly, then excluding AA/KK from 2 hands and raising the tight players to top 15% of hands means I have ~22.5% equity. Which is about 5% more than my pot odds to push.

At what % +EV do you guys think a hand is an auto-shove? 2%, 3%, 4%?

what's a really, really good way to approach a spot like this, in your opinion?