Game is playing really big. A couple of splashy players are going nuts potting every pot preflop and willing to get it in with any 4. The spalshiest player is UTG and is steaming because he lost a few pots. Sitting with about $6K and had double that an hour earlier when I joined the table. He makes it $100. Hero is playing tight/straightforward and has about $4K. Folds to me on the button with KK45. I call. Small blind folds, middle blind calls(Has about $6K) and 3rd blind calls(He just bought in for $1K and from prior games know he is fairly loose/splashy).

Flop is KJ9 rainbow no clubs. Player in first position who is playing extremely tight pots it to $405. 3rd blind goes all in fairly quickly($900). Splashy player that is tilting surprisingly folds. First player I 100% know has Q10. 2nd player has Q10, two pair or a smaller set. If I just call, pot is reopened.

What would you do?

I'm always a little surprised when I see experienced poker players bandy around '100%'. You can't be 100% about anything until you see his cards. What do you think he does with AJJQ/AJJT, check-fold? Retaining your capacity for surprise doesn't cost you much.

Presumably, if you're 100% about him having QT, you also have some idea of how he's going to play it both with and without redraws, facing an all-in and an overcall?

He's probably not going to want to get it in unless he has a big redraw with his straight, and you're blocking the only big redraw; the correct logic in his shoes, with a hand like QJJT, would be 'it's almost impossible for me to be up against KKQT, and even if I am I'm still getting half the pot most of the time', but he still may not pump that and it certainly doesn't sound like he'd pump 99TQ.

So assuming he flats the flop, you're getting 2.45-1, with your hand somewhat face-up, little in the way of bluffing opportunities, and close to zero implied odds. I still want to call, because I hate folding top set, but you gotta do it here I think.

No responses so must be pretty standard in everyone's mind. I actually folded and disagree with what Wazz thought that the first bettor would call with Q10. In this game there is no way he wouldn't shove(at least in my mind). I folded and both did have Q10. Turn was a Jack so I would have won a nice pot but thought it was the right play to fold.

Well if he has QT 100% and jams 100% you've answered your own question. My experience is that even bad tight-passive types just call here a lot.

If you're sure he has q-10 then yea it's a fold... if you could see a cheap turn that would change things... but he would definitely repop it...

well if he doesn't shove w/out redraw then he's clearly not getting involved when you stuff it in his face

we lose roughly $840 when called and win $730 vs dominated range when nit folds bare QT, so we need him to fold 54% or more for a shove to become profitable

nobody is folding the nuts in the game OP described.

Exactly, no shot of that happening.