Grabbed by Holdem Manager
PL Omaha $6(BB) Replayer
Hero ($1,174)
BB ($360)
UTG ($1,917)
CO ($684)
BTN ($465)

Dealt to Hero T A J 9

fold, fold, BTN raises to $21, Hero raises to $69, fold, BTN calls $48

FLOP ($144) 2 Q 8

Hero $396 in play


Villain is a fish 70/28, no real reads other than that, I have one note that he cred v light with 50bb on the flop
Is C shove or bet call superior?

Neither, check/call is better than bet/call. Bet fold is not great with our exact hand though. Check fold is probably superiorest though

i wouldn't love it but i think c/f against a reasonable bet is the best play. you don't have any backdoors or pairs and i don't think you have enough leverage to c/r successfully.

maybe a small bet/fold?

check with the intention of folding.

Bet/Call.

You're getting better than 2 to 1 on a call once he shoves.
You'll need around 30% equity.
You probably have 25% equity against his shoving range.

If you're planning on calling every time he shoves, you're effectively risking 400$ to win 150$.

When he calls, you lose 400$ 75% and make 550$ 25% = -160$
When he folds, you make 150$

You need him to fold to your Cbet a little more than 50% of the time, around 52%.

If he's really fishy and shoving a pair + GS thinking he has FE, your equity obviously goes up and your needed FE goes down.

It's actually pretty close. Not a great spot either way but I think I still jam.
Since you're calling, make the flop bet big to let him know you're not folding.

Although a fairly straight forward hand. I'm pretty surprised by the c/f line. As I usually play I stack off here 100% of the time.

Like Foldemlow said we need around 30% equity to get it in which translates to villain folding ~52% of the time. With that said, in the games I play (400 PLO) I dont think I'm getting a fold near 52% at all...I guess I've got some work to do

Foldemlow, I havent done any numbers but spontanesly I dont really agree with much in your post really and you havent thought about that villian has a call button etc. but this is part is pretty absurd:

"You'll need around 30% equity.
You probably have 25% equity against his shoving range."
...
"Since you're calling, make the flop bet big to let him know you're not folding. "

why would you call in that case at all?

My bad. At first I thought about bettin 100$ and folding, that's where 30% comes from.
If you pot, gaining a little FE in the process, you're much closer to 3 to 1, 250$ to win 700$.

In this case, it's so close that stacking off with tiny -EV is fine given you can't really be sure his range isn't wider than what has you on average at 25%, which was a pretty pesimistic estimate to begin with (albeit not by that much, imo)

Fold equity makes up for it. I think getting him to fold 52% of the time isn't out of the question and it's good for your image as well when you get caught stacking off like that.
I also think B/Folding getting 3 to 1 is extremely exploitable.

C/F isn't disastrous by any means but I like B/C a lot more. C/shoving is the worst imo, because then you have no FE at all and end up stacking off against a ton of hands you would've folded by jamming the flop.

Check and let him check back. If he's a random 70 vpip fish he probably wont spot the free pot for taking.

Also there is a good change he bets something silly small which you can c/c.

That is a pretty dry flop to be check-folding. WTF. Rep a big hand pre, then fold because he might have gotten lucky? Weak.

A 70/28 is way too loose pre to be giving up to on this flop with this hand. Bet/folding is almost certainly better than check/folding even if neither option is best.

This is not a wrap and is basically a pretty weak draw, especially on a flushy board. Just check/fold, you're dominated by any pair and crushed a lot.

I think if I bet my standard size I would have a thin call here, so I would just go with that. It's obviously not a great spot at all.

Has anyone who is not Foldemlow determined our equity versus a reasonable shipping range?

If Villain is stationy I think c/f > b/f on this board texture but it is close. Check/calling OOP with what could be a 9 out draw without clubs, no pair is pretty ugly with not much money left to go in after the flop.

Thanks. I'm the only person agreeing with you itt fwiw, but I guess hater gonna hate (and never change his mind), right?
Why don't you do it yourself and then tell me what's wrong with my calcs, ok?