Quote:
Originally Posted by SaveTheWhales
You are being offered $200 to $1000 so clearly call.
I think it is a mistake to ever bet fold the turn. Unless he holds specifically KJ all 11 of our outs are clean. He plays JJ / 99 like this almost always, no? Also he will play Ax the same way sometimes especially if he holds a T or a Q as well.
Need bigger stacks to find any tough spots imo.
Yeah I have our pot odds a bit wrong, pots odds as you say make it more of a call, but I still prefer a 1/3rd turn bet (bet/fold) for the reasons I gave.
He is only ever raising the turn with a house or the identical hand to ours (diff suits of course) and if he has KJJx we are almost drawing dead.
Stacks are relatively shallow so I don't subscribe to him making some kind of blockers/semi bluff play when we are priced in to call anyway...... he always has a house.
Perhaps it is close between bet/fold, bet/call and check/call a small bet, but definitely $175 sizing is too big, with the only reason to bet that big being to fold out 9s full if our opponent is an exceptionally weak/tight player.
The argument against my view of bet folding an $80 bet is that we are surrendering our own equity by doing so, but I feel this is counter balanced by us folding out a villain's flush draw and by the villain occasionally flatting with bottom house and then re-evaluating on the river.
I think all other plays where we end up just getting it all in on the turn are effectively losing plays as we are behind.
A strange nuance of strategy analysis is that making a play, be it a right or wrong play such as leading for $175, then makes the next play "correct" to call the shove, but we mustn't then forget that the original play of betting $175 may have been incorrect, so therefore the call of the shove is not actually a "correct" play in the overall context of the whole hand, it is only correct as played after the (incorrect sizing) turn lead.
Last edited by SageDonkey; 09-08-2016 at 11:55 PM.