UTG : $ 1500
MP : $ 1800
CO : $ 1000
BU : $ 3200
SB : $ 2600
BB: $ 300

Pre Flop: (pot: $9.00) Hero has J J986
UTG straddle $12, MP calls, CO folds, Hero raises to $57, SB reraises to $201, BB UTG MP folds, Hero calls

Flop: ($432, 2 players) T 7 4
SB bets $288, Hero ?

Villian is a reg, 3bet% about 4.5%
Read was even though he 3bets me more than usual, when OOP he will usually play fit fold.
When he cbets usually minimally AA with nut flush draw, rarely he will be a naked AA( a few times seen him c/call with naked AA)

With this kind of read, should i just call since if i go broke here, it will usually be against a better hand or strong draw?

yes you should just call. good chance he has diamonds. but with 12 nut outs we have no problem seeing a turn, and sizing dependent, a river.

I would just try to get it in, your hand is a monster and there are lots of action killing turn cards. We are never too unhappy if villain folds nows.

you have about 30-40% equity against AA with diamonds and if you think that's the worst he'll tend to show up with, it's not like he's folding it with an spr of 2 so obviously you wouldn't raise.

your read kind of makes the decision for you - and it's impossible for us to judge how accurate it is. we'd have to expect that sometimes he shows up with worse and is bet/folding (or has a bare set against which you have pretty decent equity) but how often is really tough to say. there may be people out there who are exactly as you described but it would take many, many hands to be able to infer it without being able to see their mucked cards. it's more useful to explain what you're basing that read on.

5-Card Omaha Hi Simulation ?
1,734,681 trials (Exhaustive)
board: Td7d4h
Hand Equity Wins Ties
JhJd9d8s6s 44.85% 774,020 7,807
Ad2dA 55.15% 952,854 7,807

What site/program? Pro poker tools gives wonky numbers not sure if that’s what you’re using

assuming the sim is correct and it’s treating the remaining 2 cards as random it still is overestimating your equity because 2 is a below avg card for him to have and he’s a lot more likely raise the flop with hands that chop some of your straight draw outs than not.

board: Td7d4h
Hand Equity Wins Ties
JhJd9d8s6s 42.81% 76,168 1,955
AdxdA 57.19% 102,099 1,955

Are u guys like 400bb deep or did I read that wrong. I flat and expect his hand to be transparent on later streets

And the other 2 factors? His read was not that he’d raise with all of those hands, just that he would generally not raise without at least that. Depends on what he means by usually obviously but this was just hypothetical if he always has it, and with those assumptions < 40% is likely.

Pretending it was slightly > 50% though because his range contained some big pairs without bigger diamonds that are equity dogs where you can get them to fold out their 30%ish equity, it’s still not clear that raising is better than calling.

In those spots where he doesn’t have higher diamonds you get him to fold out $300 in equity but are losing 250ish when he has “it” and puts his stack using your 42.8% equity number. Or 150ish if he just calls leaving himself with 1k behind in a 3k pot. He’d need to not have “It” quite often even based on equity.

And that’s not even considering that the alternative to raising is calling and playing the hand in position against a fairly transparent range.

Yes games here run deep

What i observe is more of when he CB here either he has total air or monster, Usually single pair or over he will check call or fold

I call with the intention of calling it off on most turns. Could even jam a T if he checks to you.

Things play slightly differently on sites where people get routinely very deep but at the same time you can expect most villains to become more straightforward the bigger the pot, and this is will be a big one. Keep it smaller until you have him down to like 20% or whatevs.

13 nut outs

I prefer calling this deep and IP.