UTG: $739
MP : $237
CO : $1373
BU : $ 1860
SB (HERO): $ 2083
BB: $ 439

Pre Flop: (pot: $96.00) Hero has K T T 9 9
CO calls $6, BU calls $6, HERO raises to $30, CO and BU calls

Flop: ($96, 3 players) 524
All checked

Turn: ($96, 3 players) 9
Hero bets $68, CO calls $68, BU folds

River: ($232.00, 2 players) 2
Hero bets $174, Co raises $754, Hero ?

A loosey doosey game, but yet to see CO made any big plays.

Flop checked as I dont see any value for betting and a free cards would be great.

Turn i assume none of them has straight at best some 2 pairs?

river standard value but getting raised here really stumped him here.

1. raising I feel I am only running myself into Quads or SF
2. Folding is abit too weak

Please advice!!

you missed showing us the river card

Standard jam when villain has only 400 more.

honestly, I call and often Remember myself how i hate this 5 card game cause they often have it

standard call. you beat several other fullhouses

I think we can pretty easy rule out all the straight flush combos given villains line A3ss,63ss is going to be putting in some heat before the river since you "never" have a straight given the line you took, So left are 55/44/22 combos, we beat two out of 3 combos so put in the last $400 and hope that we are facing the 66% range we beat.

you really can’t rule out those sf hands though. It’s less likely because you’d expect 63 to bet flop but he could have been going for check raise, and a3 might not bet flop. Similarly he can slow play the turn waiting to raise river with a sf.

OTOH does he even raise 44 for that sizing? Your river value bets are primarily full houses (I think betting 3/4 pot with ace high flush is a mistake) and you probably fold a lot of the weaker ones to a full pot raise. SHOULD he be raising 44? If you posted this hand and you had 52xxx or 42xxx a lot of people would be saying to fold to the raise In which case, when called, he’d more often be behind than ahead which would make it a mistake.

I fold river but playing 5 card and literally never seeing some1 reraise River las a bluff might have turned me into a nit.
I disagree I think he can have a3ss pretty often plus 22 plays like this if he has many combos pre

Folding seems pretty bad. We can look at the hand in retrospect and say that raising 44 and even 55 for value is a mistake but people are likely to overvalue hands in 5 card the same way they did in Omaha before people became acclimatized to hand strength.

There are twice as many combos of 44/55 as 36/a3ss and 22 and you have to heavily discount 63 when he doesn’t bet the flop or raise the turn, and slightly discount a3. So 3x as many when weighted roughly. And so even if he only raises those hands 1/3rd of the time you’re still good 50% of the time getting 2:1. He has to raise 44/55 less than 1/6th of the time he has them AND have zero bluffs for this to be a fold.

But surely he would have raised the turn with that holding, no? I would not reraise this hand pre out of the blinds. Don't build big pots out of position.

you are over simplifying a complicated situation in your favor.

Is he always limping as many a3ss combos pre as 44/55 combos pre?
Typically people play like 100% of axs hands but not 44kt6 type hands or 444xx.

is he taking this sizing with ALL hands or is it skewed? His sizing is targeting full houses so i mean makes more sense to have a hand that doesnt block them when going for value. People sometimes raise smaller in this spot trying to get crying calls w/ 44 and maybe 55 and with bluffs exploitably.

Is he checking flop/calling turn w/ 44 or 55 as often as a3ss? This is obviously villain dependent but I tend to think not. Especially not the hands he would play preflop like 5567x or 4436x etc.

There are other factors that can skew statistics even though it looks mathematically unlikely he has a straight flush. He also could have quads w/ a double paired 22 type hand or 22ass type hand i guess. It's really villain dependent but unless you can't assume he's playing somewhat reasonably preflop he actually ends up w/ a lot more a3ss combos then simply counting combinations would show. Hero's hand looks pretty transparent too tbh especially if he calls/raises which is what villain would expect w/ 99 so I mean idk about the player but should factor in for discounting worse hands. I dont think hero ends up w/ as many 42 52 44/55 type hands when raising pre flop and the first 2 dont bet turn or call river anyways.

You have the 4th nuts in live 5card and getting raised on the river. Folding is anything but weak.

If you think he does this every time with 55 and 44 then it's a call. If you think he just flats or raises smaller with some of these, then you have a close decision. We are only in the middle of our value range on this river.

It's an interesting spot to wonder if he folds those hands if we rejam river. He certainly should.

I don’t disagree with your premise of a3s being played more often than hands with 55 but if we’re making those kinds of considerations then we have to also consider that hands that include a suited ace are a lot more likely to raise pre. The balance of those two effects probably will lean more heavily towards him having suited aces but not by that much and I think discounting for the way he played the hand is a lot more impactful, especially for 63s.

Wrt how he played the flop - I would expect a lot more to bet flop with a3ss than 55/44 for obvious reasons. The turn action then thins out more 55/44 hands - but by how much is unclear. Of the hands that include 55/44 that he plays pre there will tend to be An open ended straight draw to go with it so I don’t see most folding but as always player dependent.

I doubt the net of all of this shifts it that dramatically and people’s tendency to overvalue hands when they aren’t familiar with 5 card o shouldn’t be minimized. evidence: some people in this thread are saying to 3bet the river even after having a lot of time to think about it.

Raising is the only bad option.
It's a weird raise because all the hands he could have for value could bet the flop.
You raised out of the SB. You almost never have a boat here so he could think 55 and 44 are gold. I call