Quote:
Originally Posted by Aleksei
I don't think we can fold here, we have 13 nut outs and basically the best possible draw on this board, but...
aren't we behind any range that wants to play with us?
Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
---|
KcQhJc7s | 46.85% | 258,526 | 45,146 |
A$R$R,KQJ,J9,TT,88 | 53.15% | 296,328 | 45,146 |
This is the absolutely most optimistic range I could think of here and we're still slightly behind.
So isn't checking it back a better move?
checking v betting depends on many things, but the most important factor in this case is how often we are going to take down the pot without going to showdown.
Keep in mind that we have 2 BDFDs in this hand, not one. So we have roughly 48.5% equity versus the assigned range. With an SPR of 6.3ish, To B/C +EV we only need ~46.5% equity. So, immediately b/c is showing a profit.
If we expect to take it down something like 10-20% with a bet on the flop, we are just printing by b/c'ing.
So yeah, b/c'ing is very +EV here.
For checking it is a lot harder to measure EV and I don't really feel like spending time breaking it down. Basically the biggest benefit would be getting 2+ streets of value versus a sucker straight if a 9 comes which is going to happen <2% of the time. Its just not as +EV as b/c.