Game is 4 handed 25/25 with optional $75 button straddle

Villian has 3k I cover.. Only reads are he bet river in 3b pot big as bluff and got called by me after I cb flop, ck back turn..

I open As Js Jd 8c UTG and folds to big blind who 3b to $300, I call..

Flop Ks 10h 5s (Pot $625)

He checks, I bet $300 he slowly calls

Turn Kd (Pot $1225)

He checks, I bet $500 he snap calls

River 2d (Pot $2225)

He leads $850


Thoughts on what he may have and what you do in my spot? Are you guys betting the turn?

I think you should check behind the turn. River I would fold. Very weird line for him to take i mean he would have needed to call the turn with a draw and decided to bluff it small after just beeing caught by you couple hands before... I think fold is best here

Def cback on turn imo. He will never fold a better hand to a bet and you block his drawing hands. I think he has AKxx here and he just blocker bets the river to get called by a weaker K or some hero call with a hand like yours and I think he'd fold to a shove but that's too spewy to do with our hand 'cause he might just cry call. So as played I'd fold the river.

If the 5 were a 6 I'm probably betting turn, but there are just no draws to worry about.

As said above, cb turn, as played snap call 1/3 pot river and expect a lot of AA/QQ but not enough to make this a fold.

Srsly snap calling this? What do we beat that villain turns to a bluff?

A lot of busted draws, AT included with them.

Given he 3b pre don't you think most of his Kxxx have a strong fit with this board?

A few thoughts:

This hand started with just over 100BB stacks. I can't think of any hands villain should play like this. Also, high stakes players think it's cool to call draws on paired board, definitely moreso shorthanded. So which hands could he have butchered this way:

AAxx disconnected - yes, though he should prob just b/gii or b/f depending on hero.
AKxx disconnected - Another b/gii.
QQxx with gutter - probably should just keep the lead or c/f
AT + weak draw (AQT, bdnfd) - maybe.
really weak fits like T + bad gutter + bdfd (89TJ) - fine.

I think if I ranked the likelihood of these I'd go:

AA, AT, AK, air, QQ.

We're getting 3 to 1. Call and move on with your life

I still think it's a bad call considering that we've been betting all the way. Don't see any point in donk betting anything that has sd-value here (ATxx, QQxx) if hero isn't folding JJxx here. Don't you think any ATxx hand would connect to this board also and I think JT98 etc would just b/f or c/f to this board. Would think c/c would be the worst play with that kinda hand oop and also we block those combos. More likely him to have some AKxxds with bdfd+bdsd because of the 5 or AAxx.

Strange for him to try and represent K2. Problem is his line is so weird and foolish I honestly think you see quads most when you lose. Raising to bluff out aa or qq seems ambitious considering him having those would be silly. Unless its some weird bluff with AAQJ or QQJ. he did peel twice tho so hoping its a complete air ball miss is tough. Guess its a sigh fold...maybe call in this spot once In a blue moon

Always bet the turn to get folds we want from a ton of hands.

Maybe AKQx he didn't wanna get raised off on flop.

nobody advocating a river shove yet?

Has villain been 3bing a lot? If he had a monster wouldn't he bet big on river again and also v weird line to take to get value. I feel the v top of his range is k2xx the bottom of his range is AAxx maybe QQJx and all bluffs/busted draws (I don't think there are that many tho) if u think villain can fold AKxx or weaker kings I feel a jam/raise is the best play> fold > call.

Lol posting while u posted

problem is there's not really enough info provided here to know if shoving can be good. however if we can say with confidence that shoving will fold out all non fh and AKxx hands then i think it's worth bringing up.

He can be nutted here and he can also just be not believing you if you do jam, fold >>> call > jam imo

ATJ9, ATQ9, AT98, AQT8, etc.

My point is that he really shouldn't play any hands this way with a low SPR - trying to put him on a hand that doesn't exist gets me to call since I think he usually has AT/QQ/AA as blocker bet and sometimes air.

I so don't understand jamming. You beat his bluffs, so a call is just as good for those. The only value to jamming is moving him off AA/QQ/Kx, which he bet because why? That seems like a big risk to beat a small range of hands that he shouldn't be betting.

I.e. I think I agree with wazz.

Regards, Lee

jam is really bad...