easy fold i think. gotta have it with the speech and turn check.

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

118,092 trials (Randomized)

board: ATT

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
QT97	29.67%	29,256	11,553
T:30%	70.33%	77,283	11,553

You don't want to play for stacks vs him if he has a T.

wait wtf are you talking about?
he plays solid starting hands so he never has like rando KTgarbage
if he had KT its like KQJT type hands which he's always 3 betting pre.

therefore 100% i have the best T vs him.

his most likely hand is T789 T889 etc type hands.
no idea what you plugged into that simulator but i'm pretty confused by that cuz its total nonsense.

you realize i have the 2nd nut non boat T at this point right?
just cuz he might draw out and fill up with one of his kickers which often time we're sharing doesn't mean i don't want to force him to put his whole stack in the middle with a worse ten.

either that or we're playing different games.

That's why we input :30%.

Okay.

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation

Powered by the Odds Oracle (http://propokertools.com/odds_oracle)

board: ATT

Player	Equity	Wins Hi	Ties Hi
QT97	35.1092%	29.2969%	11.6245%
T:15%-30%	64.8908%	59.0785%	11.6245%

Can he not have AT? What about KT98?

If you say so.

You have no idea what something is, but you are confident that it is total nonsense. Okay.

Yes, I realize that.

That's true. If you can be 100% certain that you're ahead, you should want him to get his stack in.

No, we're all playing the same game.

Well... almost.

lol are you for real? your inputing the top 30% or 15% or w/e hands that contain a ten....you realize

A) he never has one of these hands as he's 3betting them in position almost always preflop

B) almost all the hands you put in your simulator with the T contain either a K or an A. my point is he doesn't have any of those hands. he has a T and 3 lower cards the vast vast majority of the time many of which i share with him, so i'm in a super amazing position.
why don't you play with your simulator and see how i'm doing vs a more realistic range of JT89, JT78 etc (even tho i doubt he's even that strong as he's almost always 3betting those hands as well), etc all those run down hands and get back to me about wether i want to play for stacks.
i would say given his flat call pre in position rather then a 3bet he'll never even have as strong of a hand as T987, its actually way more likely he has a hand with a T and a connecting pair in it as those are the hands he won't 3 bet with. and i'm crushing those hands even harder.
when he shows up with a ten in this spot i expect to see like T998, T997, T887, and all those similar hands.


edit: but ya ur right he could have KT89 so i should prolly just flat call and try and keep the pot as small as possible vs someone i have a bunch of history with because of the very small possibility he could have a better hand then me.

No, that's not what I'm doing. I'm inputting hands between the 15th and 30th percentiles. That excludes hands in the top 15%. That's why your equity went from 29.67% in the first simulation to 35.11%. Excluding hands in the top 15% helps your equity a lot, just not as much as you seem to think it does.

If you say so.

I'm sorry for teasing you. I think it's funny that you are so casually dismissive of tools that you admittedly don't understand, but if you can somehow be sure that you're ahead here then obviously getting more money in is good.

i mean i'm not trying to be a dick i just don't see how these tools are really going to be more informative then the information i have gathered over the many hours we've played together.

and its not that i don't understand it, its that i don't think its accurate or particularly useful.

im pretty sure your simulator is just using a static range and isn't weighting his range based on whether he flat calls or 3bets in position with given stack sizes.

i mean thats a pretty ****ing huge/critical piece of information but your simulator doesn't account for it at all.
right away when i see him flat call i can eliminate a whole ton of hands cuz i know for a fact based on the hundreds of hands i've seen him showdown that he's not flatting in position with broadway run downs and if he plays KT89 its going to be double suited so he's 3betting that as well.

basically what i'm saying is the vast majority of the time if he has either a K and a T or a A and a T in his hand he's going to be 3betting in that spot.

when he flat calls IF HE HAS A TEN i believe that almost always the T is going to be the highest card in his hand, (maybe a jack but w/e) and VERY often his hand is going to have a pair in it.

now tell me does the simulations you ran take any of that into account or just say ok here's all the hands he could have with a 10 in them lets take the top 30% or w/e and just see how you do.

thats stupid when there is so much more information you can use to assign him a much more specific range and figure out your equity against that hand.

at this point im not even sure what we're arguing about? you want to use the simulator to give him a range w/o being able to input his preflop action and how that action affects what his actual range is rather then just say blindly that he gets the top 30% of all hands with a 10 ball in them?

that seems pretty absurd to me, but if i'm somehow misunderstanding you please let me know as like i said before i just got done with a 30+hr live session and my brain is a bit fried.

but for some unknown reason i cannot fall asleep for the life of me.

lol yes i do say so, is there some reason you think that statement/read is far fetched or inaccurate?

i mean rather then make a snide remark w/o any reasoning as to why you're being dismissive of what i thought was a pretty clear and lucid position why don't you tell me why it is you think i'm mistaken about how this players preflop action in this position is going to affect the type of hand he can have?

or is it you just don't ever 3bet without AAxx? i mean i'm assuming when someone opens in MP to LP or really any position and you have a hand like KQJT youre 3balling that almost aways right?

if not then like i said i think we're just playing a different game.

and really the only feasible hand he can have with a king + a ten that he's not 3 betting pre (esp vs a pretty str8 foward not too tough opponent) is exactly KT89 single suited and so when you have a whole **** ton of possible combos of hands he can have that you crush and then one single one he can have thats ahead of you are you trying to say thats a bad time to play for stacks?

cuz that was your original statement remember? that "you don't want to play for stacks against another T" given the remarkably useful and accurate information you got from your simulator.

i mean its not very hard to go to pokerstove and find out what the top 30% of hands are but i don't see how that has any real application to the situation at hand.

I am not sure if you are for real, but anyway.

He can have many many hands with ATxx or KTxx. AT98ss, AT97ss, AJJT, AQQT, KJJT, KJT8ss just to name a few.

Also implication he makes when he puts 15-30% in calculator is that he excludes top 15% hands from his range. If you want to exclude more hands from his range - fine, but that would mean that his 3-bet% in this spot is higher than 15%, which is already quite a big number.

i think one disconnect could be thinking about hands from the frame of reference of online play and live.

in online play stacks are so much shorter and ranges are so much more static and in general there are just plays that are always considered bad.

like this hand for example you would just never CR the flop like that etc and doesn't make a whole **** ton of difference who ur playing vs etc (obv there are exceptions)

but when you're playing with the same group of people over a long period of time in a deep stack full ring PLO game you have to start thinking about things a lil differently and also taking in alot more information.

and you also have to be able to take some unorthodox lines and play hands differently depending on who your opponent is in the hand.

i'm too tired to go into great detail but i def think its an interesting tangent to follow up on if you're a online player thinking about putting in some serious time playing live.

obv if you're always going to play 100bb and get up when you get deep w/e don't bother, but often effective stacks are thousands of BB deep and you're playing with people day in and day out and you just cannot expect to be a tough winning player if you just take the same abc lines over and over.

often times the biggest pots you win are because you played a hand in a way your opponent just doesn't believe you would ever play this way, they get confused and when ppl get confused their inclination is to call.

also the faster you can build up the pot the more likely people are to make mistakes.

people don't make many mistakes on the turn/river in small pots, however the bigger the pot gets street by street the more people make really costly mistakes and its a big part of your win.

no idea if i'm getting my point across very well, i think i'll just quit for now and if anyone is interested in furthering the discussion (tho i can't promise that when i return to my senses i'm really going to want to get to in depth about my thoughts on optimal deep stack live PLO strategy. prolly better for people to just think i'm stupid and don't understand how to use a simple simulator duh).

i mean i'm not sure how many different ways i can try to say this but i'll try one last time: OF COURSE HE CAN HAVE AQQT, KJJT, KJT8SS and all the others you listed i'm not saying he is incapable of being dealt those hands.

my assertion is he would almost ALWAYS 3 BET THOSE HANDS IN POSITION AGAINST A MP TO LP OPEN. ALWAYS.

i say this not only because those are perfectly legitimate hands to be 3betting in that position but because I HAVE PLAYED HUNDREDS OF HOURS OF POKER WITH HIM AND IN MY OBSERVATIONS HE 3BETS ALL OF THOSE TYPES OF HANDS. ALWAYS.

therefore, and here is where i seem to be losing people who apparently think "i'm not for real", when he just flats the open i remove all those hands from his range and believe that if he shows up with a ten ball in his hand he's going to have a run down type hand often with a pair in it and def lower then my Queen kicker.

i have no idea why this is such a complicated concept, but i'm done arguing about it. if you don't believe me when i say that then cool beans.

you guys should have fun with your simulators and don't bother to pay attention to what people's 3betting ranges are vs their flatting ranges etc and then realize that you can use that information to help you formulate the best possible line vs them postflop.

now the point is the vast majority of the time neither of them have a ten i'm going to CR and just take it down there w/e.
there is no use to slowplaying as there is no 2nd best hand they are going to make on the turn that can now play a huge pot and i'm still ahead of.
however when the person i'm targeting indeed has a ten like he's representing with his flop call i believe that not only do i have him in bad shape but the best way for me to get his entire stack is to take an unorthodox line and CR the flop for a few different reasons. i'm not going to share them cuz really i don't see what the point is in giving away even this much of the way i think about the game (esp to people who don't seem to have any geniune interest in a productive discussion where both sides actually listen to what the other is saying).

my only real point i was trying to get across and i just can't for the life of me understand why its so complicated is that i believe that the person in question almost never has an ace or a king with their ten due to the preflop actions.

now please if you'd like to disagree with me rather then asking if i'm for real why don't you please tell me why you think i'm wrong.

i can't wait for the ol "well ya sure maybe in the hundreds of hours you've played together he always 3bets those types of hands, but maybe this one time he just decided not to for some reason and look how good it worked to fool you" etc cuz that will really show me.

i guess i'll just keep on trying to use the maximum amount of information i've accured on my opponents to try and put myself in situations where i can try and play big pots with them when i believe i'm ahead and not look for monsters under the bed everytime i have a big non-nut hand and go into check call mode because gosh darn it they could have me beat.

one of the funniest things i ever hear is well ya sure you have a huge hand but what worse hand can call you? when i hear that i know the person doesn't play live poker.

when the pots get big people will show up with all kinds of **** you never thought possible so my philosophy is when you get a big hand try to get as much $ in the pot as possible.....if you don't start building the pot up early you're not going to win a big pot.

people don't start putting in a ton of chips on the turn and river without nutted up hands, but they're sure as **** do it on the flop and by the time the turn and river come now the pots so big people just hate to ****ing fold.

i say it all the time but i'll say it again, people losing big pots, if the pot is already big they auto lose it if they fold. the bigger the pot is the more likely someone is going to make a mistake.

if i have QT on ATT and i'm 80% confident my opponent also has a ten and i know with a high probability its unlikely based on the preflop action that they have a ace or king in their hand as well i'm not going to ****ing check call down and hope to show down my hand for the min to make sure that the very few times i'm beat i lose the min.....i want to get as many chips in the pot as quickly as possible.
and guess what for all the well how will they call with worse people, let me ask you how often you think you're going to be able to bluff someone off trip tens on the flop/turn on a non flush/str8 board (**** it even on a str8 or flush board) when you play your hand fast on the flop?

i emplore you to start trying to get people to lay down trips because gee how can their kicker be any good with this guy putting so much money in the pot and see how it works out for you.

cold decks and coolers are the number one best way to win big pots and if you don't do everything in your power to take advantage of them when you're on the right side of them you're going to miss out on a ton of value.


edit: this is in no means saying that anytime you have a big hand on a scary board you should just get as many chips in the middle of the pot as possible cuz **** it gambol.....there are tons of spots where the best play is to check call and let them keep the lead etc cuz while you may rank to have the best of it the vast majority of the time the fact remains you cannot play a big pot and still have the best hand.
i did not think that vs this specific opponent on this board that was anywhere near the case.
now it didn't matter cuz the ****er didn't have **** he was just floating and the original raiser had the AAxx and so obv when it plays out like that my flop CR looks stooopid. but you can take it to the bank that he's never flatting my flop CR with the intention of repping AA and taking the pot away from me. these players are nowhere near that level.
one last thing to consider is that not all poker players think the way the people who spend a ton of time on 2p2 discussing strategy etc....in fact you should realize you're the vast minority and work a bit better on figuring out how the vast majority of recreational live players minds work. cuz its about a million miles away from how you're approaching the game.

his 3bet % is def higher then 15% ime. way higher. you have to remember in these games 90% of the players don't have a 4bet range aside from AAxx and the very very rare super tilted stuck a ton double suited kings. but it allows you to 3bet with impunity cuz all that ever happens is you get flat called in a bunch of spots and get to play a big pot in position which is the nuts.

Someone please tell me if it's worth the read, cause whatever this guy posts usually isn't.

I was interested in this and still am a little, but that is way more words than I feel like reading/responding to right now. Maybe later.

You're discounting a lot of hands that I'm not sure how you can. You say you 100% have the best ten? You're just completely ruling out any hand with kt in it? How bout 9tjk kktx 8tqk kt89 k8tj, the list continues based on how loose preflop he is, but You certainly can't just rule out those hands and if he's remotely competent he's only going to call if he thinks you have stone air. The dynamic you speak of is something really hard to get advice on from someone who wasn't in the game, but I think you have to have an insanely crazy dynamic to even consider this play. You shouldn't be looking to build a big pot here with such a medium strength vulnerable hand oop, its almost as if you were raising for info which IMO is completely unnecessary bc you get all the info you need on the turn after you flat.

posting for lolz, wp

bump for MADDDDDDDDD

CZI. It's not empty, but its not constructive either.

Spadle and Holla are arguing with RBK's assumptions about the player and his range.. anyone can be right about a hand and if we change the rules, but its pretty arrogant not to defer to his reads over ours.. from a computer.. reading the hand after the fact.

We should be saying 'if player A bet/calls X, Y, Z, its a call, if not its a fold'. Information like that is useful outside of this one particular case.

And Spadle, gotta walk before you can run. Go check out what's actually in the T:15%-30%, range with an enumerator/explorer instead of spitting explains of the 15k combos and calling suggesting its representative of anything.... you can't arbitrarily pick numbers and call it range and hope to get good info out of it

the bottom of that range is T665 ss and hands of the like I'm sure our villian ism't opening these in EP. And above TLLL, or TMLL with gaps.... come on.

You haven't modded out hands for PF range to make it at all representative of what you need here, haven't removed hands that pot control pot, :nt, etc etc... I know its a quick sim, but you can't pretend like there is any value to there.. either need to put some time into the sim or ignore it, you'll only hurt yourself.

And that is assuming the line is even correct.. you can't just start at river equity and say its a fold and expect to make money. You're basically saying he could have these hands, we don't win against these so its a fold. When really its about, he calls my raise with these hands, is he leading all boats on the river? Is he turning AKQx, AKJ, the hands he might/defend on the flop into a bluff. Answer these the best you can, then you would craft his river range from hand groupings that it makes sense for him to hold on the river, not a % range and you have your equity and frequency from the combinatorics.

Its totally possible the raise on the flop is even the most profitable line here, given the ease of the river decision to most people so far, it is actually very likely given calling hands on the flop will be such a small subset of c-betting hands. Just didn't get into that because it wasn't the question. and that line is usually only profitable when the river decision is trivial, which was the initial question.

People wonder why they have tilt problems! For most guys its not their mental toughness, its not too much variance to handle, its just impossible to have lasting confidence in your play f you don't have a foundation behind how you play, and why it makes sense.

No I'm not.

Thanks for the advice.

lol wtf? No it's not.

The villain in question didn't open in EP. The middle-aged guy opened in MP and the villain we're talking about getting it in with called next to act.

Look, I'm as fond of mocking PPT rankings as the next guy, but it isn't true that they're actually worthless.

Also, villain in question called a small bet in position. You seem to think we're talking about the player who opened and c-bet. We're not.

No, that's not something I've said at all.

I'm not going to read the rest of this because it's pretty clear you haven't read what I've written either.

See, here´s the problem: I am not argueing with your read or anything but you should have mentioned that in the op, as tbh: from what it says there these ranges do not make a whole lot of sense vs. someone who is supposed to pretty tight, esp in a live setting.

Looking at the screen of pro poker tools range explorer right now... with my eyeballs, T664, I don't make things up, is yours an optimized run w/ dead cards or raw or somewhere in between?

I can't put together any T:15-30% that doesn't include the hands I mentioned. Yiou want to upload screens and we'll see where the issue is?

The sim is useless because it wasn't done with any accuracy, its not representative of the hands he sees a flop with too sloppy, not because the practice is useless. If you believe what you said to CTS then you know this.

Is my MP and EP mistake important? Yep, I am very forgetful on my own! and I take a lot of medicine for Crohn's disease that doesn't help the fogginess... I forget little details a lot and its annoying and screws up my work sometimes.... But is my personal shortcoming even relevant here!?

I still don't see him opening a lot of hands in that range from MP.

I also never mocked rankings.... I use them for 0-5% all the time, where they are useful and correlate to actual ranges to a higher degree, I use them with a PFR modifier + some extra syntax to capture the hands.... ex. say a 30% PFR opens pre, that range is far more accurate running a top 50% modified to discount out the range elements that don't make sense (like the T665 in this example).

I'm talking about how to apply them because people misapply them all the time, its not a simple clear cut thing.. you disagree? This is recurring problem with my students.

listen I contribute here because I think having a poker community is cool, and I like helping people. I won't argue with you over who is right or wrong, if you want to work on the hand together to solve it, we can do that.

What I wrote will help people, you don't want help, that's fine...its just the obv play for me then is to write you out of existence in my world and ignore, i've seen your analysis, you can't help me, you aren't pleasant in the least, so there's just no reason to associate with you anymore, gl at the tables

T664ds is in the PPT top 30%, but that's not the hand you said. You said T665ss was, and it's not.

He didn't open. He called an open.

I was a t the table w/ rbk for a while and am pretty sure i know who hes talking about as I am a reg in these games and capitol L-O-L at him putting the kid on this tight of range by his button call. He'll play wide on the button including every suited ace on the planet so hands like AsTd2s4c are in there and even KdT86d and the like. rbk you know this is true. Your balls/ willingness to make a read and go with it are commendable but you just spewed in this spot AINC.

i'm saying it because i believe all those hands you're talking about he would 3bet in that spot.
there is just so much value to 3betting in these games....ppl open to 140 you make it 300 just so freaking often and all they ever do is call...and often times you pick up one or two of the blinds and you get to play a nice big pot in position. and everyone generally just checks to you on the flop its great.
there is just no way he's not 3betting almost every hand that has broadway+T in it IMO.

i really don't understand how this is the part of my post that people are taking issue with. how the **** can you argue with me over someones 3bet range you've never played with? thats absurd.
(thats not directed specifically at you holla mostly at the ****** that keeps trying to show me PPT simulations that have absolutely no relevance to the conversation).

just for clarification no one is talking about the opener's range we're talking about the kid who called in position then flatted the flop. that was the person i thought i was going to be playing the pot with post flop.

def think you're thinking about someone diff as the kid i'm talking about is never playing AT24 dont even think double suited. never seen him show down a hand like that from any position in any situation. he could have KT86ds sure just like KT89 tho i still think in that situation he's 3betting quite often. even if he does flat with it like i say again the number of combos of hands that have a k or a +T are so much smaller then the ones i beat that its absurd to not try to play for stacks because vs a very small % of his range i prolly have 9 outs. come on.
also just out of curiosity who are you? just like to put faces to names, esp when we've played together.

also while i did say i prolly made a bad flop CR i had pretty good reasons for it and i'm pretty convinced that if the OR didn't wake up with AA and the kid had the ten i was going to win a big pot so not quite sure how it can be labelled spew.

i'm mostly done talking about it esp love the LOL posts "oh man too many words can't read all that" pretty hard to take someone seriously who's attention span precludes them from reading a few paragraphs.

anyways no real point to continue, was prolly -ev for me to even put any of my thoughts out there. we're playing 20//40 and 20/40/80 PLO everyday at commerce come on down and get some easy money from the spewtastic donkey that doesn't even understand simple PPT simulations!!!