$2.75/5.50 PLO with 1.38 ante in an online mix, 7 handed, $220 cap
Preflop: I raise to $16.50 with AK87 in co, bb defends
Flop: I cbet $16.50 into ~$45 on 227, bb calls
Turn: T checks through
River: 4, villain bets $49.44 into $74.91
Hero is getting a great price but not a ton of missed bluffs here and will have a decent number of overpairs to bluffcatch with. We block 77 and even the bb can't have a ton of 2s, so really we're hoping villain floated flop against the small cbet. I think it's a pretty easy fold against a pot sized bet, but in a tough spot here
Result:
Spoiler:
was about to fold before flicking in the call and was rewarded by seeing AQ65for exactly the float I was hoping to see
Interestingly enough PPT ranks this hand in the 13th percentile, whereas I would not even open the CO with it. I do like your flop and turn play, but would give up the river myself.
It does raise the question, what sort of bluff catching frequency we should have on the river here, and what sort of combos we are actually calling with.
Last edited by PokerPlayingGamble; 09-14-2020 at 01:58 AM.
Hero is hardly getting a great price on river. Betting turn is better than checking imo, we have great blockers to triple barrel and can improve. Flop sizing is okish.
Info on the BB is missing so I guess you want to think about a generic response vs unknown players?
If that is the case, then definitely bet much smaller on the flop. If you bet say 25% pot you can bet for value / denial, you don't need to bet more because the flop is bone-dry.
The problem with betting this size is what hands are calling this bet? I would say all overpairs, 7s and 2s. Random backdoor floats are possible but uncommon for most players - plus he should 3bet a fair whack of his DS hands. Therefore he reaches the river with very few hands that need to bluff and that leaves you exposed versus a very value heavy betting range.
Is this a flop we should c-bet? Seems like we're exposed heavily to anyone with a brain if we're just firing flops like this. River seems like a quick fold.
Yes we should cbet with our hand. We block the best overpeirs and 7s full, and our hand is likely best right now but will lost often by the river to random overcards when checked down, to hands that will find it difficult to continue to a flop bet. We can get thin value vs worse 7s, we have plenty of outs vs middling overpairs. 2xxx combos are rare in either players range.