Villian: SB $430 Strong player, VPIP 33 PFR 19 3B 7
Hero: BB $440 We've tangled in the past and he probably views me as a competent player

Pre: Folds to Villian in SB and he makes it $6, Hero pots it to $18 with QQJ10ds, Villian Calls

Flop: $36, K-10-3, rainbow, we have one back door flush draw but flop an open ender with mid pair, Villian checks, we bet $24, Villian calls.

Turn: $84, K-10-3-7, board now has 2 diamonds giving us a flush draw, villian checks, we bet $57, villian calls

River: $200, K-10-3-7-3, board pairs but brings the 3rd diamond giving us a Queen high flush, Villian checks, Hero?

Generally speaking in lower stakes I might consider checking behind, depending on the type of villian... Here, with a strong villian, who may view me as decent, what is the right play?

I actually would check. You didn't mention on the flop if the K was the diamond but if it is not, you now have 3rd highest flush. Do you think he would put you on a full house and fold the A or K high flush if you bet? If not, I would check.

As played, you can have a full but it is doubtful he does since he probably raises KK at some point and you block 1010. The 3 on river makes it less likely he had 33 and hit quads so what has he been calling you with this whole time? If he picked up the diamond draw on the turn he would call your turn bet after possibly floating the flop with a King and other backdoor draws so I would be checking here. You said he is competent so if you bet and he raises, you are in a bad spot as your stack doesn't allow for much maneuverability.

great analysis, thank you. Yes, the K was a diamond so I had the second nut flush on the river.

Pre-flop ok.

Flop bet is too large - with range and positional advantage (this is a good texture) we should opt for smaller sizes. Probably about 1/3 is best, though if you are looking to extract more value 1/2 isn't bad.

Turn is a bit of an odd spot - for that sizing i would normally want to have both stronger value hands and lower-equity bluffs. A and K blockers are quite important here, regardless of sidecards. For that reason, i think turn is more of a standard check. Not to mention the implied odds of checking are pretty good, we may even call river unimproved expecting to win with the queens.

Finally, river - our hand is strong enough to bet, but opponent may put us to the test. Even though kkxx is not likely, villain may have some t3, or k3 hands. And villain can certainly play blockers aggrressively with any k, the a of diamonds or any 3. My strategy in these spots is entirely history based but i will say - don't be afraid go small.

Its funny bulltexan thinks u wanna bet river as a bluff and monikrazy thinks river bet is for value

I thought river bet would be for thin value too but now im not sure anymore

Going for value with non nut-flushes on paired boards is always super-tricky and villain-dependent.

I thought bull was on point about about how important queen high vs king high flush was in this spot, and why queen should be checked often.

I don't really think river bet is thin from a value standpoint, the hand is reasonable strong - its just that we tend to care more about blocker effects when we aren't at the top-top of our range.

Complete river strategy with this hand is complicated because we will encounter many check-raises from good opponents. And we should sometimes call said check-raises.

I think you have to check back river - hard for him to have really anything to call you with, and maybe he has the rare T3,73.

Thread title is misleading. It's clearly 1/2. No suits provided for the board. We had to ask you whether K was of your suit. Is the J-high flush possible? It makes a big difference whether 9-high fish is next best or j-high.

Very difficult for him to have 7-3 or T-3. Only reasonable hand that beats us is nut flush.

I'd be trying to induce here with a quarter pot bet

You are right, sorry about that. Villian normally plays 2.5/5 and this particular night he played at a 1/2 table. I normally only encounter the villian at the higher table so totally forgot.

I will also provide suits going forward.

Just to be precise my hole cards are QJ of diamonds and Q10 of hearts, so jack high flush was not possible in this particular hand.

The flop was Kd 10s 3c

Turn was 7d

River was 3d

So you think the only reasonable thing that beats us is the nut flush; therefore you are in the camp that a river bet makes sense? or do you think checking is best as a 10 high flush would not call the river bet?
Thank you for your patience.

I think villain can have the combos that beat us enough that we aren't really getting the river bet in that well once called. There are so few worse flushes and even then I don't think villain is amazingly happy calling off a complete bluff-catcher flush on this river.

We need to thin value bet to deter our opponent from calling this river light with like AKxx or something but are we three-barelling this guy enough for that to be an issue. Realistically if he backdoored the nut-flush or pot-controlled TT/K3 he will probably check this river because leading doesn't make that much sense.

- Bet smaller on flop
- pot it on the turn
- check back on the river

Getting value from these spots is what going to make you a great player.

A key insight for me when betting thin value on river is: Does my betting pattern so far in the hand includes bluffs in my range? If yes, then a good opponent can see that too and can call light.

Another question to answer is: what worse hands than mine can call? any smaller flushes, a bare 3 here.

So on river, I'm not betting small, Im betting like I bet the nuts or a bluff. Here ill bet 50 to 75% of pot.

Does hero have very many bluffs in this spot though?

I'm not sure it makes EV sense but the more I think about it the more I consider the possibility that in-game I bet the entirety of my range here. I think I'm betting Kx (we definitely have AKQJ & KQJ9 in our range to get here) to get us off a chop or to get AA or KT to fold, using our blockers, maybe even the same but replace K with T, maybe the only hand I don't bet is AAxx without the A.

If its reg dont see him calling with worse flushes so i would check back here. If the boards paired hes not only worried about being beat by a flush but also boats. Its almost like you are turning your hand into a bluff to get him off a higher flush. I think worse hands fold and better hands just raise you off your hand. When he does call this spot you will see better boats that arent the nuts and higher flushes. Now if this is a bad loosey goosey player I would bet on the river if i know they over value weaker flushes. Then its fine. But way it sounds your up a against a good player so I would check here. I think it a little to thin vs a good reg.

A good reg never call river bluffs? If OP never bluffs then yeah. But if OP is a competent player then reg has to respect his poker game enough and sometimes call.