Hi All,

Below are my results so far in Pot Limit Omaha and No Limit Omaha for this year. It has been pretty frustrating for me overall, I feel I have been running terrible and not able to make any substantial $$. I need your thoughts on how much does the actual winnings vs All In Adv EV winnings matter. As you can see my All Adj EV Winnings and All in Adj bb/100 is far superior than the actual results.

How much should I be paying attention to those differences. Does it make sense to not look at actual winnings and only focus on All In Adj EV?? That will at least make me feel better about my game maybe.

Those look like solid numbers 4bb/100 is definitely a decent winrate. I think you are making the wrong assumptions from the data bc the bb/100 is the number you should really be paying attention to. The problem with all-in EV is that it will only show your equity when the entire stack goes in. So if you happen to get 95% of the money in on the flop and u suck out on the turn when the rest of the 5% goes in, you can see how this stat won't be representative of what actually occurred. Yes you ran below all-in EV but you also made 24 buy-ins over 90k hands. If your actual win-rate was let's say 5bb/100(that would be an extremely good win-rate) you could easily lose 10+ buy-ins in 90k hands. Out of the 20 samples I just simulated 4 of them show a net loss over 90k hands with the worst sample showing a loss of 54 buy-ins! I suggest using the poker variance calculator on prime-dope to simulate what your results will could look like at different win-rates and # of hands played if you haven't already. It will show you how much of a role variance will play in your end results.

TLDR
To answer your question, no it does not make sense to only look at your all-in EV adjusted BB/100

Thanks btcwinner, your response makes a lot of sense. I have never looked at any poker variance calculators, I will definitely do so.

People keep posting nonsense like this, like maybe the variance of PLO destroys people's mind.

Yes, even when you look at AI-EV adjusted values there is still a lot of variance that is unknown. But bb/100 also contains all of those unknowns as well as containing the known variance after you are AI, and EVbb/100 doesn't the last part. No, b/100 is never "more representative" than evbb/100 on your theoretical winrate.

If you are winning then look at your bank account and delude yourself however you want, but if you are losing then don't pretend that EVbb/100 is lying to you and you "must" have got unlucky in all the unknown spots ... that's not how math works.

To OP, you seem to be playing well and running bad (as far as can be seen), welcome to PLO.

stay away from no limit omaha...its like crack in the pokerstreets

Running bad in all-ins is bad for the wallet fa 'sho. Nothing to do but keep on keeping on and playing. PLO variance is a ******ed beast which you can't escape, only hope to not get one of the bottom runs possible over large samples..


Also, god that idea about AIEV by btcwinner is tilting. AIEV is on average a better measurement of true winrate than green line/winnings is. I've written lengthier posts on this in the past mapping it out, but basically: Poker is full of variance of many sorts, and AIEV gets rid of one of those variance spots. Thus: on average better for true winrate measure than green line/winnings. No, it doesn't show your exact real winrate (whatever the heck that idea would even mean), but it's on average closer to it than the green line is.

Pretty sure that's zoom PLO, shows up like NL omaha in tracker

Thank you all for the input. I will keep grinding with a positive mindset, and come back here and post when I reach a total of 150k hands and see how things turn up by then

What is the point you are trying to make here? Bc all-in EV is only a very small portion of the hands played so it is not more representative of our results than our BB/100. I mean really how often do you think we're going to be all-in over this sample? Depending on the game I would guess under 3% of our total hands played. All-in EV is such a misunderstood stat it blows my mind how this fellow thinks he just ran absolutely terrible and yet he's showing a 4bb/100 win rate over 90k hands. If we run the numbers and assume he has a theoretical win rate much higher than 4bb/100 over 90k hands we would still see a bunch of samples that were negative. Based on the numbers he's showing I would say he ran slightly below average. Yes he ran badly in all-in situations but that's not the most important thing to pay attention to. It's just one small aspect of the data set.

LOL

Indeed. One might even say some people in this very thread appear to have no idea what it is.

All-in EV doesn’t come close to capturing all the variance that comes with poker but it’s better than nothing, as Loctus said. btcwinner’s response makes no sense, AIEV captures those all-in spots AND all the other spots, so it’s slightly better.

But yes look at a pokervariance calculator. Lots of variance in stuff like bets getting called, flopping sets, hitting draws, etc.

I’d be relatively happy with running 11 bb/100 over 65k hands. Remember that the difference between your sample being a slight loser and a slight winner at 1/2 PLO is winning literally only the difference between losing a 100bb pot and winning it

Tl;dr there’s no point in looking at the green line as opposed to the AIEV line except for considering variance/BRM factors (do I have the bankroll to move up? Should I drop down? How much variance can I reasonably expect?)