2/4 PLO. V is playing about 44/20/8. Winning reg, plays pretty well post-flop, capable of bluffing but usually with equity and can be sticky in the right spots.

V has about $950, H covers.

H has Ac4c4h7d in the SB. Folds to H who pots, V calls.

Flop (24) - KhJc6c. H bets 16, V calls.
Turn (58) -5h giving H the OESD too. H bets 37, V pots, H raises to 450, V calls.
River (958) - Td. Hero?

My questions:
1. Assume everyone pots this hand in the SB?
2. Thoughts on turn play? I like the initial double barrel when I pick up a bunch of equity without any showdown value. Then once I'm raised, I've got 7 outs to the nut straight, 3 outs to the nut straight (one of them completing the BD flush) and 3 outs to the second nut straight (again one of them completing the BD flush), so I'm getting odds to draw against a set and can't fold. By re-raising, I'm representing basically KKK and JJJ and would hope to be able to get him off a set of 6s or a hand like KJ.
3. Shove or check/fold river? On the river we have about $500 back. I find his call very curious, would've assumed he's folding or shoving, especially if he has a set. So think he can have combo draws here. That said, one of the combo draws that makes the most sense, a Broadway wrap with a heart draw or a non-nut club draw, just whiffed. Also, would prefer to be slightly deeper to shove since I barely have a 1/2 pot sized bet. On the other hand if we check we're never winning the pot.

What’s hero’s perceived image to villain?
Do you use similar betsizing with sets?

Depending on your answer I like shoving.

if stacks were deeper a better and more credible line would be to bet small to induce and 3bet all in.


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H has played w/ V in a different club under a different name, so doesn't have much of an image to V. However, H has a lot of hands played so should look like a reg. If V knows me it should be as aggressive winner, capable of bluffing, maybe a bit too sticky.

This is definitely my sizing with sets. 2/3 is my standard c-bet and barrel sizing in a raised pot. If I had KKK I would definitely just pot as the re-raise. i don't usually pot, but once I'm putting in a big raise that doesn't leave much room on later streets I'll just pot.

What does 44/20/8 mean? thanks

He’s playing 44% of all hands, raising 20% of them pre and 3-betting 8% of the time.

Thank you!

Villains line is weird.... I shove and expect a lot of folds. He prob turned more equity like hh or straight draw. If he had tons of showdown equity he just shoved turn a lot I imagine. Broadway wraps get there but most 3b pre or flop so I think it's not enough combos to be worried about. Random double gutters and hearts hitting seem more likely but just need a fold like 33% of the time ffs

im shoving here all day

A broadway wrap didn't whiff it just made the nuts. QT9 wrap isn't folding either.

I think a smaller turn raise would be better, *not* to get folds but to keep his weaker hands in which can then fold to a river bomb, while losing less on bad runouts.

Unfortunately I think this qualifies as a bad runout. Even if we *did* have KK/JJ here we wouldn't be feeling too thrilled about it given his turn action. I'm not sure we would even shove here vs check/calling hoping to pick off a bluff, particularly if we didn't have clubs in our hand.

I'm trying to find something in his likely preflop defend and turn play range that a jam will work against at the river and am coming up short. If he has a draw it had to be a monster and monsters mostly got there. QT78hh I guess? Maybe a few low club draw rundowns that got wrappy at turn, but we block some of those (and in fact beat some of them if he chickens out). Seems like too few combos.

This hand has been rattling around in my head and thinking about it some more, and given:

- Description of villain
- Heads up closing action
- Very small flop bet relative to stack sizes

I now believe my previous analysis put too much emphasis on flop action to define range.

I now think he could have a number of heart floats that could have turned a combo straight/flush draw or 2pr/hearts, and a number of those could fold to river jam.

Again we beat a few of them but a "just in case" bluff is probably better, especially if we think he's capable of bluffing river when we check.

I still think a smaller turn raise is better, but as played bomb river and pray.

Results - H shoves, V insta-folds. He must have had a similar hand to mine, something like Kx that turned a bunch of outs or a double flush draw.

While playing I liked the shove. On thinking about it afterwards I think I got a little lucky that he was at the bottom of his range, and that a lot of the time he shows up here with something like the Broadway wrap + something else and gets there on river.

Sweet, I snuck my revision in just before results. WP at river.

(Spoiler: V was me and I had T978hh, almost called you with the T.)