Full Tilt Poker $400.00 Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 2 players
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Hero (BTN/SB): $878.00
BB: $1041.40
Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero is BTN/SB with Q
K
2
T
Hero raises to $12, BB calls $8
Flop: ($24.00) 9
K
5
(2 players)
BB checks,
Hero bets $20.00, BB calls $20
Turn: ($64.00) Q
(2 players)
BB bets $64.00, Hero ???
Villain is very loose, at times he makes plays which are good but other times makes awful mistakes, overall I think he is too aggressive not folding often enough.
PF I think hes going to be calling with a range something like 10%-40%
Flop I think hes calling any 1 pair hand and sometimes GS+A or a wrap. I expect him to very rarely have a hand better than 95.
Turn after counting some combos on propokertools it looks like he will have turned a straight or a set of queens about 10% of the time, whilst having hands which are apt to be turned into bluffs 30% of the time.
Furthermore only about 14% of my range will be boats+ on the turn meaning if I'm not expanding my calling range I open myself up to being hugely exploited by aggressive bluffers.
What do you do and why?
Edit:
If you want to know where I got the %'s from;
the 14% comes from me opening 100% OTB and cbetting roughly 100% on the flop, so 14% of hands are boats+ on the turn (
http://beta.propokertools.com/simula...%2CJT**%2CAT**)
Villains flop calling range (
http://beta.propokertools.com/simula...*%29+%26+40%25)
And here I count the % of hands given villains flop range which are weak enough to bluff and strong enough to vbet (
http://beta.propokertools.com/simula...9+%26+40%25%29)
Last edited by Huggy; 03-30-2010 at 06:55 PM.