Full Tilt Poker $400.00 Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 2 players
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Hero (BTN/SB): $878.00
BB: $1041.40

Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero is BTN/SB with Q K 2 T
Hero raises to $12, BB calls $8


Flop: ($24.00) 9 K 5 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $20.00, BB calls $20

Turn: ($64.00) Q (2 players)
BB bets $64.00, Hero ???

Villain is very loose, at times he makes plays which are good but other times makes awful mistakes, overall I think he is too aggressive not folding often enough.

PF I think hes going to be calling with a range something like 10%-40%
Flop I think hes calling any 1 pair hand and sometimes GS+A or a wrap. I expect him to very rarely have a hand better than 95.

Turn after counting some combos on propokertools it looks like he will have turned a straight or a set of queens about 10% of the time, whilst having hands which are apt to be turned into bluffs 30% of the time.

Furthermore only about 14% of my range will be boats+ on the turn meaning if I'm not expanding my calling range I open myself up to being hugely exploited by aggressive bluffers.

What do you do and why?

Edit:
If you want to know where I got the %'s from;
the 14% comes from me opening 100% OTB and cbetting roughly 100% on the flop, so 14% of hands are boats+ on the turn (http://beta.propokertools.com/simula...%2CJT**%2CAT**)
Villains flop calling range (http://beta.propokertools.com/simula...*%29+%26+40%25)
And here I count the % of hands given villains flop range which are weak enough to bluff and strong enough to vbet (http://beta.propokertools.com/simula...9+%26+40%25%29)

i don't see any reason to do anything but call with these stacks. call n see what's up on river. proly snap calling a quick pot bet on alot of rivers vs opponent described.

Change your hand to 95 and we can talk about something other than calling.

and why?

Folding seems really absurd (especially after reading your calculations) and raising is bad this deep

with 95, you really don't have that much showdown value, and if you are ahead, you aren't really crushing his range. Where as with KQ, if you are ahead, you are most likely way ahead.

So with 95, you might have to look at bluffraising 95.

this.

fwiw you havent actually explained anything, again you have only stated your opinions and not how they were formed or any argument to back them.

however thanks for all the replies it is appreciated.

ok i had written an essay but it's unnecessary and tl;dr. so here's a shorter version

raising sucks cuz it's tough to be for value, it's not a bluff, it's rarely for protection (you're either way ahead, way behind, or chopping), and you're vulnerable to a shove which surely makes you fold even though there are blocker bluffs and KQ (maybe) in his range.

never folding turn vs this villain as he obv has alot of bluffs and 2pair hands in his turn betting range.

calling works cuz get some river bets from a bluff (which is likely a big % of range), a cheaper showdown vs his made hands (some of which you beat), and a chance to fill up/ chop vs his made straights. just make your decisons easier on river regardless of action.

Always call here.. next card?

Sorry I just think it's a pretty straightforward spot that you're over-complicating. You gave somewhat vague reads with no examples of his spewiness or greatness. It would be bad to raise / get it in in a single raised pot with the information provided, and since there are worse hands / bluffs he could be donking with on the turn folding would also be bad.

ask more specific questions

thanks

lol Boats+
double lol AT**