UTG : $ 2400
CO (Hero) : $ 2400
BU : $ 1600
SB : $ 200
BB: $ 200

Pre Flop: (pot: $6.00) Hero has A A (cant remember the other 3 cards)
UTG raises to $14, Hero raises $48, BU calls, SB and BB folds, UTG calls

Flop: ($150, 3 players) A T T
UTG checks, Hero bets $74, BU folds, UTG raises to $278, Hero calls

Turn: ($706, 2 players) 5
UTG bets $470, Hero calls

River: ($1646, 2 players) 9
UTG bets $1646, Hero ?

Same Villain from >>>> this hand

I been having a lot of issues with Nut House versus such aggression. Any pointers to knowing when's a good time to fold? Maybe 100bb I would just go and forget about it but maybe 200bb onwards I should really put in more considerations when facing such situation

Does he really c/r TT here OTF? Doesn't he have AT some % of the time?

That also has been on my mind since the start too, maybe he wanted all the chips to be in so he realised he has start from the flop?

what kind of adjustment will you do if you realised he actually does such a move.

extra note: my image is quite a REG/Grinder on the table.

What about the portion of your 3b range that isn't AA? I think you're overthinking his logic - he didn't pot the turn so clearly he isn't thinking that you only continue on turn with AA.

If he's got TT - not really that rare - he can combine the fact that you've 3b pre, and he's blocking Tx, you've most likely got aces. Given there's a decent chunk of money left to play and that we're conditioned to think that a c/r is rarely quads, it's the right play.

It's difficult to balance the whole c/r, bet bet line with bluffs though. From your point of view, you're hoping he's overplaying AT or bluffing. Which he might be, and I'm probably not finding either at any point, but they're would be done villains against whom I can find a fold here.

With 16x the pot left to play, the temptation is to start building a pot now, but for the sakes of balance, and the ability to induce bluffs, and the difficulty of getting 3 streets of value, you can consider checking the flop sometimes.

yeah if he has quads he's blocking the **** out of that 5th T

no one ever bluffs like that so you just have to decide whether he suicidally overplays his hands or just wants all your $$ based on a past history. river is probably a fold just don't tell anyone about it

If you check the flop does it make it any easier to fold later? How deep do you need to be to consider folding this (or is it entirely read-dependent)?

Or do you theoretically lose less based on the action? i.e. if you check flop he will likely lead turn in which case you can flat and raise a river-lead (and then fold to the 3-bet all-in on the river since it has to be 10-10 more often then A-10)

If we check the flop or turn, it's not with any plan to fold. We check the flop sometimes because it strengthens our check-back range, induces bluffs, and pot-controls the rare time we're beat.

There may well be action sequences where we consider raise-folding river but that's rare, don't plan for it. Instead, think of how many streets of value we can expect from worse hands. 4 streets (i.e. one in which there is a raise) is too many for our hand strength and stack depth; 3 may be difficult to balance, so we go for 2 instead, because it comes with other benefits.

The same logic applies to having the nut flush on straight flush boards. The difference is that you generally go for three streets of value because it's much more feasible that you're bluffing, and you need to play your nut flushes that way far more often than the occasional pot-control / bluff because otherwise your nut blushes won't get through. But on ATT you're rarely pot-pot-potting Ax as a bluff, so you can take the tricksy line more often without being unbalanced.

Thank you for the detailed explanation, I think I understand what you are positing about how many streets of value you can expect.

Obviously when we 3-bet AA pre-flop and flop Aces full we are never planning on folding, but I was interested about what situation we would fold in - i.e. what if it's the same hand with the same pre-flop action but it goes:

FLOP

Check-Check

TURN

Bet-Call

RIVER

Bet-Raise-Re-Raise

*******

If he puts in the a re-raise on the river can he ever have anything but 10-10 here? Some lines in PLO just are so obvious that it would seem obscene to take that line and bluff....so could we ever fold here?

The vast vast majority of players are not capable of putting in a 3rd bet on the river without the nuts. The rest are either suicidal or have balls of steel. If the action goes as above, yes you can fold, because river bets differ from flop and turn bets in that there's no equity to deny, it's value or bluff, and hand ranges are stronger as there are more cards out, so you need a stronger hand to bet or raise for value yourself.

Against some players, you would consider just calling the river if it played out as you've described, because checking back any street and then raising the river looks super strong. It's a great bluff line, and of course, for the sakes of balance, we ought to do it with aces full too, but we don't have to, as we'll do it with quads too, which is enough to balance the rare time we choose to take this line to bluff with.

I really don’t see how this can be a fold until you are about 500-1 SPR and have seen this triple barrel line with same sizings from him before when he had the nuts.

Combinatorially-AT can be part of an unknown players line on average IMO, he has twice as many combinations of that as TT for nuts.

I think he could take this line with a T some smaller percentage but non-zero percent. And made TTT99

Or likely a pure bluff with one T if he is a good player capable or steaming tilted and just goes for it definitely does happen even with rocks for some percentage of the time.

He can also obv have super overplayed broadway and flush draws when he thinks he can rep TT type strength and get you to fold to a river bet after building a healthy pot like this. It can be a very profitable line. You just have to call.

TT should try to let you catch up somehow not raise a lockdown flop like that. And who can’t see that? Pretty much everything but crazy ass floats and AA you already get stacks from will fold to that bet so it’s crazy

You must play in some crazy games if people bluff like that