Originally Posted by Requin
Im new to PLO but ill take a stab at this.
Flop: I was thinking CR but now I favor a lead. A bit shorter stacks and I like a CR though. You checking the flop looks like you have Axxx and want a cheap showdown or have 2pair+ and the nut or 2nd nut FD, right? I'm assuming your range is pretty narrowed to this since that looks like a decent cbetting flop to me, a flop you'd cbet when you mostly missed it more often than not. I'd guess a guy like this would fire any semireasonable draw at you intending to barrel. You're obviously not c/cing with this hand (I mean, straight out cbetting is better than c/cing for protection from being outdrawn/value vs. Axxx/better protection from bluffs since you have more very strong hands in your betting range than your c/cing range, even IF you try a balance your c/c's a bit its usually only with high FD hands to go along with your big made hand which is rare and so is still pretty unbalanced). But CR gets a good amount of money in the pot and also gets a lot of folds if he fires the flop as often as I think he would.
Let me try and look at our equities vs. a few reasonable shoving hands. Say he bets 75, you CR to 321 and once he calls the pot is 738. 1085 back, you'd have to call off needing 37.3% equity if he jams. That is basically your equity vs. A7**. Vs. say KK68 NFD you have 46.22% equity. Vs. 6789 with a FD we're 41.36%, so average these two as big draws and call it 43.8% equity. Vs. a set of sevens we're 29.85%. Vs. a set of fives we're 39%, so lets average those two set possibilities and call it 34.4%.
So vs. a set we're 34.4%, vs. A7** we're 38%, vs. big draws we're 43.8%. I don't really know how to weigh things very well in PLO, obviously sets will be way less weighted due to our blockers, A7 and draws with 68 slightly less weighted, A7 should be alot more common than FD + 68... I'm going to just treat it as equally likely and hope my overweighting of sets offsets my underweighing of A7. But overall this gives us 38.7% equity, when we needed 37.3% so CRing is slightly better than CR/folding air in the instances when he jams. That makes it a viable semibluffing hand but not by that much. Of course we also consider the playability of this hand vs. a flat call of our CR, frankly its not good. On the other hand I DO think we get a decent amount of straight up folds..... mmm omaha gets complicated. I think overall if we were a bit shorter, say 1200 to start, this would make a very nice CRing hand with significant equity on our calling off to a RR (effective) jam, but that here a lead is best. Oh and please let me know if my assumption that he straight up jams bare A7 is reasonable, or if you think he'd peel looking for a safe turn.
Man I'm having a really tough time coming up with good flop CRing ranges with around 3 PSBs left on multiple draw boards, in PLO it just leaves you in a sick spot on the turn. I almost feel like you never should but then you get semibluffed to all hell on the flop...
Anyways, on the turn I'm thinking c/f frankly, I don't think we fold him off many 2 pair aces hands (right? actually I don't know about this since we have AK pretty often) or his decent draws by betting, I think he'll keep checking down Axxx on the turn and always on blank rivers (right? not sure about this). Don't like c/cing we're against better hands and good draws AND we get bluffed to hell on the river.
As for the river I really hate the bet, he can rep a full house really easily and he has mostly missed draws, don't see why we don't just c/c. I'd like a bet to induce if we had A5 more than this hand and even then I still prefer c/c.
Anyways thems my thoughts, please let me know if you think my assumptions are off anywhere as I'm still new to this game and I'm still trying to work out what all the standardized lines are.
