put me on interest for 2k - gl

When rules are made clear im willing to bet 5-40k depending on terms

Just throwing it out there, that you could put out a protected stream that only escrows and biggest bettors could access.

Thing some sort of webcam access, help you get action and prevent foul play theories if you win the bet.

are you guys reserving action for him win 200 or 100bi?

Sounds good

This may be true, but it may also cut out the tilt factor in a high volume prop bet by reducing the variance (assuming he is beast enough to actually just grind this out). Half of why these prop bets are difficult is the mental fortitude you have to have with playing lots of hours combined with high variance, although I somehow feel YaAarnY may be stronger at dealing with the swings than Urubu...

He would also be able to use the AIEV to his advantage in the bet as well. Lets say he is far behind at the end of the bet with a few days left, he could draw out a lot of 60/40 flop ram jams and try and keep money from going in until turn and river to spike the AIEV line (up or down)….

i am actually unclear on this as well

i think its 100bi at 5/10+ as we stand right now but not it might be 200+ with zoom

didn't say how much. prob around 10-30k not sure yet, please reserve some

just to be clear im attempting 100 buyins (10000bb) at 5/10 +

will get all the rules written up tomoro , played 5khands today and feel like a zombie , you guys are a lock

1 - all hands will be played on poker stars and full tilt poker ( most likely 100% stars)

2- hands played at heads up tables wont count towards the bet ( i will probably play 0 hands at 1 on 1 tables anyways but just want the option to be able too)

3- heads up is fine at 6 max or 9 max tables, i can play as many as i like and ask people to come join my tables, i wont be able too request the tables stays HU if people join though.

4- stakes will be 5/10+ with zoom allowed

5 - i will have 31 days from the hour i first play a hand , if i play a hand at 3:41pm it will be 31 days from 3:00pm at whatever date, i say this because sometimes there is 0 action and i don't wanna give up anytime just waiting from the off. (start date and a hour slot will be given a few days before i start)

6 - if someone from my immediate family dies , bet is cancelled, docs will be provided.

7- bettors peace of mind, i want everyone playing too be 100% certain no foul play is happening , but like my privacy and don't want to be on webcam all the time. im open to ideas but im happy to add the main bettors on what's app , and can send them a video with the days date and me playing 3 times a week or something at their random request. ( but if it helps i know no one who plays PLO and i definitely wouldn't trust anyone with my 100k, and most of the guys il be playing against are actually betting vs me )

8- i have to win 100 buyins, 1 buyin = 100 big blinds , if at anyone point i pass the 100 buyin point , the bet is won. this will be confirmed by either a judge or pokerstars.

9 - 3 judges will decide any disputes , i will do everything in good faith towards the spirit of the bet , and i hope all the bettors will just treat it as any normal month, no slowing tables etc

10- if for some reason poker in UK becomes illegal or i get banned from stars from no fault of my own , bet is cancelled.

11- if anything unforeseen happens , like a power outage in my area or w/e i have a week to relocate.

lemme know what you guys think ? i may have missed a few things , so if anyone wants to add or tweak some of the rules , go ahead , Roy kindly agreed to be a judge but wouldn't like to escrow, if anyone can help me on this would be appreciated .

interest list :


thin fold 20k
sira al 30k
whateverson 20k
alexo 5k
doge 2(?)
smokey 2(?)
trollaccount 2(?)
matt 6
blopp 5k
yrmom 4k
plw 4k
jokon 10k
gavz 2k
kareeen 3k
kelnel 2k
alexkp 5-40k
papicolo 10-30k

so far its 120-170 , im happy to take all this action, ive pm'd a few reputable people to help out on escrow/judging , so pending that if you are happy with the rules , confirm how much you wanna bet and were get this party(?) started


12 - I will provide updates 3 times a week , graphs in (bb) but most likely daily

I think a rule about how the results will be checked by the judges is important

Think the main issue is that :7- bettors peace of mind, i want everyone playing too be 100% certain no foul play is happening , but like my privacy and don't want to be on webcam all the time. im open to ideas but im happy to add the main bettors on what's app , and can send them a video with the days date and me playing 3 times a week or something at their random request. ( but if it helps i know no one who plays PLO and i definitely wouldn't trust anyone with my 100k, and most of the guys il be playing against are actually betting vs me )

It would be better if some big bettor or escrow can call you randomly through skype with Webcam like 1 or 2 time during a day you play to see its really you live playing. The issue with sending a vid is that you can swap playing with someone else to make the vid.

2k intrest

Agree , hopefully I can get a rep to post in this thread that they will confirm if I reach 100buy ins, if not I will have to get them to send them to one of the judges , I will email them and see what they say

im a complete computer noob, but I think I can get Skype on my iphone so I don't have a problem with that

Simply putting up a stream donkpredator challenge style is the best way then imo.

I understand its bit annoying but its a 200k$ bet from the community vs you. And safety should triumph your personal privacy as the person offering this to the community.

You might get enough action without a webcam and that's fine for me, but I'm not gonna bet without a stream or similar.

webcam seems unnecessary to me and don't blame yaarny at all for not wanting to be on camera all times. Then again, some people are betting up to 40k so guess I can't blame them for wanting some reassurance that nothing shady is going on. I don't think there's any top notch plo reg that can beat 5-10+ that would compromise their integrity to help him cheat tho

Your privacy is important but when you have a possible $300k+ swing ahead of you its time to make concessions. Make a video feed with a log in and only send it to the people who bet or at least people with five figure bets. It will give you a reason to do your hair in cool and exciting ways every morning.

I thought about it for 1 minute so I might be missing something , but whats to stop me sitting at my desk 12 hours a day with tables up while 10 people in the room next door take over ?

I think this bet has to run on a bit of trust, I trust the people im betting against not too collude against me , and do everything within the spirit of the bet.
I think random Skype calls where I can actually zoom into the screen and show a hand being dealt with me playing is as good, if not better. I can do once a day or w/e and will have a phone that doesn't leave my desk.

I know its me offering the bet , but if you think there is too much chance of foul play id just rather you didn't bet.

Make skype account just for this bet and give it to bettors, put laptop/tablet/phone so that people can see you and screen, change settings to automatically accept calls.

gl

I'm in for 10k I read the whole post...so when is this starting? Who will be handling the money?

Think this live stream thing is hugely disadvantage for Op.
Its psychological effect is huge also the effect of his opponents having free insights into his gamestyle for a full month.

Other things like privacy etc. etc. not included.
Urubus bet was also about 60k i guess so those bets are somewhat similiar.

Gl all will be huge x)
Obv as a rail i would love to see this happening with access to everyone.

You are wrong mathematically speaking.
If OP has for example a true EV winrate of 5bb/100 and he plays 200K hands during the bet he should win the bet 50% of the time. Variance doesn't help him there. The odds he puts in the bet have nothing to do with how he's gonna run or if he will or not succeed the bet.

PS: AIEV is quite far from an real EV line anyway. Most of the time playing optimally is different from making the play that will make this AIEV line look good.

Guess thats what yourm meant.
Think this bet is impossible to master by AIEV.
Because you dont gain edge by getting it in better vs obviously mathbased nittish opponents. You are mixing it up and get them to fold better hands or call with worse because you push them around.