Hi all,

T/T/Q live ($10 bb/sb and $25 straddle utg), pro basketball player is sitting to my direct left (cool!). V is to my immediate right, is pretty good maybe semi pro, not sure, certainly one of the non-terrible regs, and will bluff occasionally. In a previous session c/r V potted 689r, x/c my turn bet into dry side pot on 7d (bringing bdfd) and jammed Kd river with naked Qd and the non-nut straight. Hero has a tight image.

Limps to hero in BB who has AcAsKsJh, $125, V calls in SB as does a reg in the straddle.

Flop ($400): KcTc6d. Hero $175, only V calls.

Turn ($750): 3h. Checks through.

River: Kd. V leads $375. Hero? Blocking both value and the most obvious draws here, wasn't sure about this one. Also normally play PLO5 with this V, the PLO4 went tonight only for the VIP.

Thanks,
DT

I think your turn check will cause many Villains to take a shot by leading the river. What I mean by that is that you raised preflop. Then you bet the flop three handed. And then you were heads up on the turn, but checked when a brick 3h hit. The turn didn't change anything, but you checked, which will make many Villains think this entire board isn't so good for you. With your check on the brick turn card, many heads up out of position players on the river will bluff or semi-bluff figuring that is their best/only way to win the pot.

I'm just calling the river, but I'm considered one of the lowest variance posters on this sub-forum. How about we all just agree to disagree on this one. You didn't put stack sizes, which is extremely important if you were thinking about raising river, but my choices for your river play in order would be...

call
raise
fold

River seems like an obvious call to me.

Stacks would be nice, but mostly checking flop - call river as played.

Oh sorry we were $2k eff. Why check flop with great current and future blockers?

Also, would anyone barrel turn?

For those who wanna call, what value do we beat (KQ?), if he is value betting? What are his bluffs (we block the missed draws)?

once villain checks back the turn it's hard to give him credit for a boat on the river. there is all sorts of air he could have and we haven't shown much strength.

The board is insanely straight connected and has a flush draw. I've posted a straight connectedness % list several times. Not counting your cards, on a not straight board, the straight connectedness of this board is the highest possible at 49%. I'm with monikrazy, I'm mostly checking this flop.

Be careful overplaying AA on the flop. Even when you get a mix of other stuff for you and a mixed of blockers. Especially be careful against multiple opponents. An SPR of about 5 on that board might look good but if you get it in on the flop your opponent is going to have a lot of straight draws and flush draws coming out of his butt. Give yourself the nut flush draw instead of the nut flush blocker and then you are good to get it in.

As played you bet the flop and got it heads up on the turn. The turn was a brick 3h. As played heads up in position I barrel the turn to continue telling my story since the turn card changed nothing.

But if you would have checked the flop and it was still three-handed on the turn, I would have checked the turn too.

As I mentioned earlier, as played, preflop you raised, flop you bet against two opponents, then on the turn up against only one opponent you checked-back instead of bet when a brick hit. Many Villains might bluff 100% of the time when the river doesn't bring a new card but simply pairs one of the current board cards. If you play preflop, flop and turn this way, then many Villains are going to lead into you on the river in similar situations. Let's say you unintentionally induced a bluff.

As for what value we can beat, it depends on the Villain's definition of value. The Villain might view many types of two pair as thin value. He might have had pocket AA with bad side cards. Or he might have had QQ and viewed it as medium strong considering how the hand played out.

It isn't crazy to raise river as played, with a better read on villain. Not that it means anything, but I'd be tempted to call as villain with worse. But obviously at least call.

You played this hand like you missed. What you hold is actually the top of your range.

The way I look at it is: what are you scared of? KT, TT, 66, K6? Do you think a semi-pro villain check-calls flop with any of those? Do you think a semi-pro villain checks the turn when it comes out a brick?

You're getting 3:1 on a call. So you have to believe that >75% of the time, he played one of those hands super-passively.

Most likely I put him on either AK, KQ, KJ. He also has a lot of equity for QJT9cc type hands which have all sorts of juicy draws but can't raise because of missing the nut flush draw and because they know you are apt to hold lots of blockers to his straights and back-door boats.

Certainly I think my hand can win >25% of the time against a thinking villain.

Villain's bet looks both like a blocker bet with a KQ/KJ style hand, and also looks like a bluff trying to get you to fold QQ, JJ, or even AA since you apparently have a tight image.

Seems like a clear call. Plenty of missed draws can bluff. If V has TT or 66, he's probably betting the turn. If he flopped 2 pair, does he checkraise? I would think a decent amount, but could wait for safe turn. I could see him leading the turn with KT.

I expect to be good here a lot, probably 50% of the time. Maybe he's betting a king without a pair hoping you call with aces, which your hand looks a lot like. He's only betting half pot, which makes me think he's trying to squeeze value from you.

Was it Russell Westbrook?
I think vs competent reg you have to call river. Yes you have 3 bad blockers but you’re at or near top of range and so many draws missed. Whether to bet or check flop is interesting and I think you should do both at some frequency. Your nf blocker is very useful but your straight blockers will get you in bad spots

Call

Villain could be going for c/r turn… then rivers gin and doesnt want to miss vale and have it check through.

Villain has K10xx a lot here as a flat on the flop. 66xx is also possible as a c/c in plo4 bottom set plays best as a check call.

This feels like a value line and op is right in assuming theres literally no value we beat here.

If im playing my A+ game i snuff this out. But ill be honest abd say i probably call real time… top of range for sure.

size up your flop bet.

fire again on that brick turn. can't be afraid of the dark.

i try to avoid building a pot pre oop but as long as you're including double suited rundowns and only the best of aces i think its okay.

As played, and with $2k Effective, I'm thinking that the "scare factor" on this board, i.e. cards that can come that will kill our hand, are low. We on only fear a club or a 7 on the turn, otherwise, against competent opponents, and after potting the flop, you can bet $1125 and it's efectively all in (you will have bet $1625 of your $2000 effective stacks after the turn). You have aces here, you have blockers to everything but the clubs and lower, but if someone is calling that pot bet on the flop for the low gutter...well that's +EV anyways in the long run. If you get repotted on the flop, I'm folding then and there, because that's what a solid player with a set is doing.

Let's consider another option here:
You pot 375 on flop, he calls, other guy folds.

Turn ($1125):
--6 or T falls, I check ship on anything half pot bet or less from opponent, leaving him about $1k behind (there's fold equity)
-----he checks back, i check call any non club, non 7 non J river bet


Turning top set on the turn
You left out the type of player he is, I know you said "reg" but I need more, anything. If it's live you can get so much information from your opponents tendencies, althought I get you don't want to write a bio on the guy, but still a little bit more would help.

In any case, as played, call river 100% of the time.