Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

High Stakes PL Omaha Discussion of 2/4 and above pot-limit Omaha poker

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 10-09-2017, 06:29 PM   #1
BirdsallSa
grinder
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 668
1/2/5 Live Bottom 2 Pair +AA + NFD

Very soft lineup during this hand. Guy to my direct left is on tilt and getting it all in bad every chance he gets. Other villain in this hand has the capacity to spew big time when he's on tilt but he hasn't showed any signs of that yet. 5 players limp including V1 on the button. I'm sb with AA34cc. I call. Bb checks.

We start the hand with about $600. V1 on the button has us covered. V2 in the BB just rebought for $200.

Flop ~35
Tc3s4c

I bet pot 35. V2 on tilt calls 35. Folds around to button who raises to $135. Unfortunately this is the type of game where people are limping every combo of TT and don't have significant combos of anything else to be raising with. Seems like this is just a fold but at the time the hand felt a little too strong to let go of, especially with V1 ready to stick it in with who knows what.

Against a set of 10s we only have 36% equity so it seems like we are just putting in too much money bad here. Thoughts?
BirdsallSa is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-09-2017, 08:37 PM   #2
SolarAU
old hand
 
SolarAU's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: popping bottles w/ the boys
Posts: 1,455
Re: 1/2/5 Live Bottom 2 Pair +AA + NFD

If you have 36% equity you can make a slightly profitable call vs. a pot sized raise (getting 2:1, 1/3, 33% equity = breakeven). If you think your tilted villain is also likely to call if you call the raise it makes it way more profitable to come along because your implied pot odds will be better than 3:1 which you only need some less than 25% to make a break even call when you potentially have 30%+.

Hope this makes sense.
SolarAU is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-09-2017, 08:45 PM   #3
0MAHADEG3N
enthusiast
 
Join Date: May 2017
Posts: 50
Re: 1/2/5 Live Bottom 2 Pair +AA + NFD

let me go over this without the weed influence.

ship it.

Last edited by 0MAHADEG3N; 10-09-2017 at 08:54 PM.
0MAHADEG3N is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-09-2017, 10:28 PM   #4
BDHarrison
adept
 
Join Date: Nov 2016
Posts: 874
Re: 1/2/5 Live Bottom 2 Pair +AA + NFD

Hero should have slightly more than 36% equity heads-up against a set and is a favorite against a hand like T654. Solid favorite over a wrap and a flush draw. Huge favorite over a hand like kings and the second-nut flush draw.

Hero could outperform actual equity if he has fold equity if he calls the flop and jams a straightening turn card.
BDHarrison is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 10-09-2017, 10:42 PM   #5
BirdsallSa
grinder
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 668
Re: 1/2/5 Live Bottom 2 Pair +AA + NFD

Quote:
Originally Posted by SolarAU View Post
If you have 36% equity you can make a slightly profitable call vs. a pot sized raise (getting 2:1, 1/3, 33% equity = breakeven). If you think your tilted villain is also likely to call if you call the raise it makes it way more profitable to come along because your implied pot odds will be better than 3:1 which you only need some less than 25% to make a break even call when you potentially have 30%+.

Hope this makes sense.
Wouldn't that only be true if I had 36% equity going to the turn? I'm 36% with two cards to come. Probably something like 20% with one card, so 2-1 isn't good enough to call. Pretty sure tilted V is calling, but he likely has my a few of my outs as well.
BirdsallSa is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-10-2017, 10:40 AM   #6
MIB211
veteran
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 2,659
Re: 1/2/5 Live Bottom 2 Pair +AA + NFD

I would have potted pre.

As played, we have 11 outs to the nuts (or effective nuts if an Ace hits). If V has TT, we turn the nuts over 25% of the time. If V2 calls we're getting direct odds to draw to the turn, if V2 folds we're almost getting direct odds and certainly have implied odds (our Ace outs are particularly good). We definitely have odds against some made hands that aren't TT, and are crushing any draws. I call, hope V2 calls, and evaluate turn.
MIB211 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-10-2017, 04:15 PM   #7
BirdsallSa
grinder
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 668
Re: 1/2/5 Live Bottom 2 Pair +AA + NFD

I agree i should have potted pre. I'm not convinced there are enough draws in V1s range to make this a call/shove. If we call, what are we evaluating outside of folding if bet into unimproved? Are we just potting any 2,5,6, or 7? Honestly, I don't think this V will fold very often to that with a chance to boat up, even if he's not getting odds to do so. I think we can check on straightening cards and expect a check back pretty frequently, especially with V2 calling.
BirdsallSa is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-10-2017, 05:41 PM   #8
MIB211
veteran
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 2,659
Re: 1/2/5 Live Bottom 2 Pair +AA + NFD

Quote:
Originally Posted by BirdsallSa View Post
I agree i should have potted pre. I'm not convinced there are enough draws in V1s range to make this a call/shove. If we call, what are we evaluating outside of folding if bet into unimproved? Are we just potting any 2,5,6, or 7? Honestly, I don't think this V will fold very often to that with a chance to boat up, even if he's not getting odds to do so. I think we can check on straightening cards and expect a check back pretty frequently, especially with V2 calling.
All this makes it a pretty standard call. If V2 calls you are basically getting your direct odds, and you should be able to squeeze at least one bet out of your flushes if he has a set, and may be able to stack V1 if you turn an ace. With 11 outs you're going to have either the nut flush or top set 25% of the time on the turn.
MIB211 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-12-2017, 05:12 AM   #9
borg23
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 7,079
Re: 1/2/5 Live Bottom 2 Pair +AA + NFD

you don't even have to pot pre but def juice it pre

how agressive is villian with draws?
borg23 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-12-2017, 06:39 PM   #10
BirdsallSa
grinder
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 668
Re: 1/2/5 Live Bottom 2 Pair +AA + NFD

I have seen V be aggressive with draws while on tilt by leading with initiative and shoving/raising big on draws. However, I've never seen action like this from V which made me think that he was strong at the time and weighted heavily towards TT. I also think combinatorically he is weighted heavily towards TT.
BirdsallSa is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-13-2017, 09:10 AM   #11
ReGen
stranger
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 11
Re: 1/2/5 Live Bottom 2 Pair +AA + NFD

Based on your reads, I would probably call around 2/3 of the time and ship it around 1/3 of the time.
ReGen is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-13-2017, 09:53 AM   #12
MIB211
veteran
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 2,659
Re: 1/2/5 Live Bottom 2 Pair +AA + NFD

Quote:
Originally Posted by BirdsallSa View Post
I have seen V be aggressive with draws while on tilt by leading with initiative and shoving/raising big on draws. However, I've never seen action like this from V which made me think that he was strong at the time and weighted heavily towards TT. I also think combinatorically he is weighted heavily towards TT.
Even if V has TT, isn't this a call especially with V2 in the hand and likely to call? Again we have 11 outs to the nuts here. Having the 4 and 3 in our hand makes it less likely that V will boat up. We are definitely going to get paid if an A hits. May be harder to get paid on hearts unless V2 also has a FD (which then hurts our odds) but I bet if a heart hits we can still get basically a PSB out of V if he has TT. He'll be drawing to the effective nuts (not realizing two of his outs are in our hand) and people don't like to flop the nuts and then fold turn even if they should.
MIB211 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-14-2017, 06:30 PM   #13
BirdsallSa
grinder
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 668
Re: 1/2/5 Live Bottom 2 Pair +AA + NFD

After doing math on this I'm confident the right play is to call here. We need 4 to 1.V2 is almost always calling which would give us 3.4 to 1. Since V2 is calling on pretty much any turn for 60 more we are essentially getting our 4 to 1. Then there's the chance (pretty likely) that V1 calls a pot sized bet when we hit our flush, and he definitely calls when we hit an Ace.

Actual results: Hero pots, V2 calls with flush draw and V1 Shoves with TT. Hero calls.
BirdsallSa is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 09:12 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2010, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online