Quote:
Originally Posted by wait
Quit PLO if this spot is a question for you.
I really don't understand this at all. I'm a live PLO crusher and I think this spot is extremely close in terms of EV between check, bet small, and bet large. Yes, the part about bet-folding being an option is silly of course, but the situation as a whole is quite interesting. I think the EV of the play comes down strictly to the other players in the pot and how they play their weak, medium, and strong hands accordingly. Some questions would need to be answered, e.g. what happens if turn completes flush and a player is holding a Q-high flush? Does he check or bet? How elastic and/or inelastic are players calling ranges based on bet size (e.g. likelihood of folding medium-strength flush draw to 1/2 pot bet vs pot bet)? Have any of the players in the hand capped their range by checking? Although the capping range part seems unlikely given the number of players behind, it is still something to consider against specific players who might always be leading KK, 33, or 22 here. Ultimately, because it's so hard to answer these questions without a fair amount of history, I actually think any of the 3 options is perfectly fine here and perhaps you should select a default based on your general perception of the games and build your range accordingly. Conventional wisdom says betting these sort of nutty draws in multi-way pots is always the best choice, but with the SPR being so low we lose out on implied odds when we get raised and without a doubt less players will be calling their medium-strength draws vs. pot size bets. To figure out the actual EV of all the different lines in this spot you would have to account for so much that I think it's pure arrogance to say there is a clear and away best decision here.
Last edited by PokerDramaAdvocate; 07-30-2018 at 03:31 PM.