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1-2-5 Aces flops nut flush draw 1-2-5 Aces flops nut flush draw

06-28-2018 , 12:37 PM
If they are calling/raising $50, they are doing the same with $75. I guess you can bet $35 - $40, let them call with a set or some stupid two pair, and then continue on turn when they hit and fold when they miss. And you can pray you hit the turn or just shove missed turn and pray.

I don't think betting small here is going to induce someone who wouldn't raise a pot bet. What can they have? Given stack sizes, any set should be shoving, and that's about it.

Maybe you'll get lucky and someone will call w/ QhXh and won't be able to fold turn.
1-2-5 Aces flops nut flush draw Quote
06-29-2018 , 06:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Javanewt
If they are calling/raising $50, they are doing the same with $75. I guess you can bet $35 - $40, let them call with a set or some stupid two pair, and then continue on turn when they hit and fold when they miss. And you can pray you hit the turn or just shove missed turn and pray.

I don't think betting small here is going to induce someone who wouldn't raise a pot bet. What can they have? Given stack sizes, any set should be shoving, and that's about it.

Maybe you'll get lucky and someone will call w/ QhXh and won't be able to fold turn.
$35-$40 is def too small to try and balance with our range. We're betting into 5 people so we're not going to be doing it that lightly but at the same time the board isn't too co-ordinated and I'm going to want to bet a hand like AA4 here and fold to a raise. And I feel like a bet of $50-$60 accomplishes the same thing but allows us to save money the times we are folding to a raise.

I also think in general some-one with Kxxx with Q high fd or a low wrap + FD are hands that might raise a smaller sized bet but are only going to flat (or even fold esp if it's just KQT8 with Q high) when you pot it because now it seems like they have no fold equity and/or can be more likely dominated.
1-2-5 Aces flops nut flush draw Quote
06-29-2018 , 09:50 AM
I am never, ever, in a million years folding to a raise. The whole point of this hand is to gii. If you are folding $250 in a 1/2/5 PLO hand with a pair of aces and the nut flush draw on this board, you should quit PLO.

I can't imagine anyone treats $50 - $60 differently from $75 in this hand, but people do weird things. I guess if you would actually consider folding here, they might try to save an extra $20.
1-2-5 Aces flops nut flush draw Quote
06-29-2018 , 06:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Javanewt
I am never, ever, in a million years folding to a raise. The whole point of this hand is to gii. If you are folding $250 in a 1/2/5 PLO hand with a pair of aces and the nut flush draw on this board, you should quit PLO.

I can't imagine anyone treats $50 - $60 differently from $75 in this hand, but people do weird things. I guess if you would actually consider folding here, they might try to save an extra $20.
I think you are missing the point.

Obviously, with our exact hand, we will never fold. However, we want to give the impression that folding is a possibility for us, and opponents may incorrect think they have fold equity and jam. That's why we bet 66% or 80% pot, instead of 100% pot.

In addition, we can balance some of our other hands that we do want to bet fold in this spot.
1-2-5 Aces flops nut flush draw Quote
07-02-2018 , 10:26 AM
Interesting. I don't think I'd ever bet/fold here with a $250 stack, but maybe my opponents don't realize that -- of course, then they aren't very aware players and might take the bait. I still have a hard time believing $50-$60 is going to get a different response than $75 -- at least not against my typical opponents. Maybe if more money were involved.
1-2-5 Aces flops nut flush draw Quote
07-02-2018 , 03:13 PM
You should never bet fold in this situation on the flop, with any hole cards.
1-2-5 Aces flops nut flush draw Quote
07-03-2018 , 10:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerPlayingGamble
You should never bet fold in this situation on the flop, with any hole cards.
This is kind of my point. The entire table should know I'm never bet/folding, so might as well go to $75 and not let them flat some random 45, etc., for $50 hoping to see a good/safe turn.

vanvliet, you checked, and I assume it checked around. What was the turn? Can't give advice on what to do w/o knowing the card -- too many variables.

Last edited by Javanewt; 07-03-2018 at 10:43 AM.
1-2-5 Aces flops nut flush draw Quote
07-03-2018 , 09:39 PM
You can definitely be bet/folding this flop with some hands against multiple people wanting to GII.
1-2-5 Aces flops nut flush draw Quote
07-03-2018 , 10:04 PM
I do think there are players who will call a smaller bet (like half pot) with K2 or 32 but fold those hands to a full pot bet if they have players behind them.
1-2-5 Aces flops nut flush draw Quote
07-04-2018 , 10:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by vanvliet
Hero AA89
Flop K32
1-2-5 live game.
I had raised to 15 from MP1. 5 players see flop, 2 in front, 2 behind me.
Effective stacks 250
Pot 75.
Should I bet?

Reasons to bet: to let a villain make a silly two pair, gutshot etc on turn would be weak poker. I am quite likely ahead at this point (someone know the math?) and if behind then have 11 outs to trips (or 14 outs to 2 pair). Villains may fear KKxx.

I think I really must bet this.

Thoughts on how to proceed if called, on various turns?
If I get raised on flop then I guess I should go all in.
Ya for sure stacking off here. Don't forget the times you get it in against a hand like KQhXh and have him crushed, too. We'd like more to go with our overpair + NFD but this flop is raggedy enough for it to be fine.
1-2-5 Aces flops nut flush draw Quote
07-30-2018 , 03:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wait
Quit PLO if this spot is a question for you.
I really don't understand this at all. I'm a live PLO crusher and I think this spot is extremely close in terms of EV between check, bet small, and bet large. Yes, the part about bet-folding being an option is silly of course, but the situation as a whole is quite interesting. I think the EV of the play comes down strictly to the other players in the pot and how they play their weak, medium, and strong hands accordingly. Some questions would need to be answered, e.g. what happens if turn completes flush and a player is holding a Q-high flush? Does he check or bet? How elastic and/or inelastic are players calling ranges based on bet size (e.g. likelihood of folding medium-strength flush draw to 1/2 pot bet vs pot bet)? Have any of the players in the hand capped their range by checking? Although the capping range part seems unlikely given the number of players behind, it is still something to consider against specific players who might always be leading KK, 33, or 22 here. Ultimately, because it's so hard to answer these questions without a fair amount of history, I actually think any of the 3 options is perfectly fine here and perhaps you should select a default based on your general perception of the games and build your range accordingly. Conventional wisdom says betting these sort of nutty draws in multi-way pots is always the best choice, but with the SPR being so low we lose out on implied odds when we get raised and without a doubt less players will be calling their medium-strength draws vs. pot size bets. To figure out the actual EV of all the different lines in this spot you would have to account for so much that I think it's pure arrogance to say there is a clear and away best decision here.

Last edited by PokerDramaAdvocate; 07-30-2018 at 03:31 PM.
1-2-5 Aces flops nut flush draw Quote
09-02-2018 , 11:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerPlayingGamble
Yes, if you are raised on the flop after betting say 2/3rds pot or more you should call all in, because you would at that point have the equity to stack off against top set.
I never like to idea of betting a hand to artificially boost your equity with your own money, if that makes sense. You could bet enough to justify any call on later streets with ATC. I play a lot of PLO and a lot of times your getting your money in with just a flush draw and set outs. I make my money on people stacking off on essentially naked flush draws . This hand looks to be a monster but it's essentially a flush draw. Of course the aces have a lot of value but if someone jams on me I'm way behind. Its a tough spot you find yourself in a lot with aces, and I'd say most people would be way ahead if they folded all their Aces pre where they can't get a large portion of their stack in. They are just very tough to play in 3-6 way pots, especially when you play against tough opponents who may be check calling sets on you/ flatting in position
1-2-5 Aces flops nut flush draw Quote
09-05-2018 , 09:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by vanvliet
I was angry with myself for not betting flop. I can clearly call a raise with 11 outs twice.

Question: if turn is a brick then should I bet again (~160 bet into 225 pot) ?
My thought is that yes I should.
If I check then I can call a bet because I have 15 outs against 2p and 11 outs against a set, which is 1.8-2.8:1 (and 2p is more likely) and pot odds are ~2.4:1
If I can call when he’s ahead, then I should lead out and charge him for when I’m ahead; he might call with worse flush draw/combo draw.
I thing http://www.propokertools.com/simulations will make your life easier.

You have 10 outs against set.
1-2-5 Aces flops nut flush draw Quote
09-08-2018 , 01:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GTOhhhNO
I never like to idea of betting a hand to artificially boost your equity with your own money, if that makes sense. You could bet enough to justify any call on later streets with ATC. I play a lot of PLO and a lot of times your getting your money in with just a flush draw and set outs. I make my money on people stacking off on essentially naked flush draws . This hand looks to be a monster but it's essentially a flush draw. Of course the aces have a lot of value but if someone jams on me I'm way behind. Its a tough spot you find yourself in a lot with aces, and I'd say most people would be way ahead if they folded all their Aces pre where they can't get a large portion of their stack in. They are just very tough to play in 3-6 way pots, especially when you play against tough opponents who may be check calling sets on you/ flatting in position
First part of post... decent advice.

2nd part is utter garbage... AA is the hand you make by FAR the most money with in PLO and you certainly don't achieve that by folding it pre-flop ever.
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