One of the most debated points among draftniks each spring is, "Which skillsets are most transferable from college to the pros?" Is it pure scoring? Great perimeter shooting? Ability to get to the free throw line? Rebounding? Defense?
But there is no debating the impact extremely long players can make defensively. The defensive changes the league went to a few years back, coupled with the evolution of defensive-minded coaches combine to make NBA Ds tougher to score against, provided they have the right material on the floor. And the strategies overwhelmingly value freakishly long players who know how to use their length (having quick feet helps) to change the shots of offensive players and inhibit dribble/passing penetration. What does all this mean? Well, for one, it means that John Henson is rated too low on everyone's mock draft board.
Watching Henson play, it's not hard to envision him being a force on the defensive end much quicker than most experts are thinking now. For starters, he's not going to be weak forever. The NBA is filled with stars who were not strong when they were 20 years old (like Kevin Durant and Joakim Noah).
College kids do not have anywhere near the time, compared to NBA players, to properly train their bodies. It does not seem that Henson is a lazy kid who won't work on gaining strength, but if he is, a year or so of getting overpowered inside by men should do wonders for his work ethic. It should be noted that Noah, in need of extra work on his body two summers ago, moved his strength coach into his home. Again, with the will to work, gaining strength is a foregone conclusion. Henson at 22 will be much stronger than the guy we see today.
Henson does some things, naturally, that are not easy to teach to anyone, much less a player close to 7 feet with extra-long arms. His nimbleness as he covers ground is good, but I'm more intrigued with his defensive stance and overall posture. It's very easy for him to get low and wide, with his arms spread. When defending on the perimeter, he looks like a world-class goalie in soccer getting ready to stop a penalty kick, spreading out to make the goal look smaller. His length is so surprising to players facing him for the first time that they suddenly put extra arc on their shots off drives just to get them off, which means they will almost always leave them short. And though he does not yet have the confidence to really step out and guard perimeter guys who are behind the line with no fear of getting beat, he projects to be able to do just that quite well too. He understands how to use angles to cut off guys and he's aware of his help responsibilities more so than many young NBA players I've watched. Undoubtedly, he's been coached up well on that subject.
I also love the fact that he's not just a good rebounder because he's tall and long (though averaging a double-double for any reason is good). Watch him on defense -- see how he almost always looks to see where his man is when someone shoots and then goes to put a (thin) body on him, moving often from the ball side of the floor to make that contact on the other side. Most athletic players just turn to the rim and hope the ball comes their way, even when they are standing next to the guy they are guarding. Henson does a better job than most bigs of getting off his man and toward the ball, but he still makes the box-out effort. That takes discipline and an interest in doing what he's told. Both are valuable commodities to NBA personnel.
Defense alone is not going to get Henson into the top five of this draft, but I believe he is heading there because he looks to be a solid offensive talent as well. Unlike many tall, thin guys with some dribbling ability that float around the perimeter looking for drives or jumpers, Henson is comfortable playing as a true post-up player. It's not something he'll be great at in the NBA, at least not for years, but the willingness to spend time inside means he'll be around the rim more, which allows for him to make plays on the offensive glass. It's working for him now, as he's pulling down four offensive rebounds a game in just 24.6 minutes per game. That's more than Kevin Love averaged as a freshman, though Carolina plays much faster than UCLA did. It's also a better average than Noah ever reached at Florida.
Henson has a high release on his face-up jumper, like Rasheed Wallace, which is quite literally the best way possible to shoot for a big inside. Over time I'd expect big improvement on this, but the important fact is that it's very difficult to get someone to learn to shoot that way, and he's already doing it before his 20th birthday.
People who know him and have watched him for years suggest that he has the skills of a small forward. I've not seen evidence of that, and his poor free throw shooting makes me suspicious. But his agility is excellent for someone with his build and it would not surprise me to see him develop an attacking dribble move from the perimeter against NBA competition. I love the fact that even though he was a perimeter-based player for much if his prep career, he's bought into the Tar Heels' plan and plays in the paint for the most part.
There is one more thing I like about watching him, and that is the passion he plays with. He clearly loves to play and has accepted strong coaching in an effort to get better. The NBA is a coaches' league, and players like Henson will undoubtedly get better when coached well. Unfortunately not all teams employ good coaches, and if Henson gets stuck with a bad franchise or coach, it's possible his development will stall. Some guys can grow in any environment, but he looks like he needs the right one to reach his potential.