At Iowa is where you guys are in trouble. It may just be a 50-50 game. Does anyone know what the spread of that game will be, based on the futures? (I've never known what site people get that from)

With Michigan at home, you guys will still probably have around 65% equity imo.

I don't know about Wisconsin. I've had a bad read on them so far this season. Thought they were better and they're not looking so good, but it's still at Wisconsin. Your equity there is probably around 70%.
Toughest games left in order:

1) Iowa
2) Michigan
3) Wisconsin


Everybody's freaking out over the Illinois game, but I don't think it means much. It's one game, and tOSU got the job done, however ugly. A team can't be jacked up every week, so there's gonna be some lackluster games always in there. Look what tOSU did vs Miami when they were fired up, that tells you alot more about your team then anything.

Before the season started, it was -3.5 Ohio State.

Iowa can be a very tough team when they don't make mistakes. When they do, they are very vulnerable. They just seem to be fairly inconsistent. It all depends what teams show up.

I agree that Illinois was not quite a huge deal. I feel that if we did get in trouble, the gameplan would have changed. Tressel rarely wants to force something when he doesn't need to.

I think Wisconsin is > 70%. Until they show they are actually decent, that game doesn't quite seem too challenging. Especially since before the season started, Ohio State was -3.5 @ Wisconsin, which comes out to about 65% IIRC.

Northwestern, Cincinnati, Illinois : 2002

Ok TC - you've set the stage for us to roll these 3 teams! we better put up 50+ each game if they are really that bad ;-)

thanks Draidin! i agree - OSU loves playing games that are way closer than they should be. they should've lost the Cincy game in 2002!

I agree. He has blazing speed and good hands. I think he could be a very effective slot back like Percy Harvin was but Tressel would never do anything like that.

don't assume too much - tressel will use his weapons and i think he knows what he has in saine. do you already forget that this offense put up 73 points a few weeks ago?! i still can't believe that... 73?!?! for osu? wild.

ps roy halladay is very very good at baseball.

What TAKES THE LEAD IN THE PLAYOFFS MORE than AN ANDERSON?

Of those teams, Northwestern is the only one that was really that bad. And we won that one the most easily of those three. And there was just a lot of bad luck at the beginning with a lot of fumbles that we eventually overcame.

There's a difference between playing teams close that we are better than, and teams that are significantly worse that have a shot at winning in the game.

I <3 Tresselball against vastly inferior teams because it limits variance, which is the only thing really crappy teams can to beat us (let us beat ourselves). Tressel is a lot less conservative against good teams when he has the right people in the game.

I'd be willing to offer 10-1 to anyone who picks against the Buckeyes in any of those three games. There are enough chances for slips, but not in those games. At Iowa worries me tremendously. But not those 3.

10:1 against the buckeyes in which games?!

If you have superior talent, then you have an advantage on every play. The more plays the better for the superior team. Tresselball is fine with a lead and a limited amount of time left. Tressel shuts it down too early too often, though.

Indiana, Purdue, and Minnesota.

If you shut it down too early and get into trouble somehow, you can always turn it back up. I've seen this happen before. It's not something you can only turn off.

The more plays Points EV is higher, but not always Win EV. Football games are rarely long enough that "getting a lot of plays" will make a huge difference (maybe the difference between 60 plays and 90 plays), but you can make your variance a ton higher in the process. It may be true that Tressel is too conservative in some cases, but the idea you can't be too aggressive in some spots is silly. If Tressel is making a mistake, it is extremely minor and at worst has accounted for less than half a win in expectation over his career at Ohio State (only counting against vastly inferior opponents). He definitely screwed up against USC last year and against Illinois in 2008, but even then, the win% was probably not changed by a gigantic margin.

I think two classic games that back up this point is the Miami national title game, and Michigan 2006. It felt like tOSU was in the 5 wide the whole time vs Miami, and vs Michigan, Ohio State had so many looks on offense, especially the first 15 plays or so, that Michigan's stellar defense was off balance the whole game. Ohio State had very aggressive smart game plans in both games imo.

One game that I think one could argue undermines your point is the 2009 Ohio State/USC game. It seems that Tressel was ultraconservative in that game, and I think we all remember that famous or perhaps infamous article talking about that after the game. IMO, Tressel's suboptimal "conservative" play calling at crucial moments of that game cost Ohio State a victory that night.

That was against Eastern High. So it dont count. 14 of those points were by accident and the 3rd string offense. If Tressel knew he would score there, he would have benched the entire offense.

haha you're so right too

that 2006 offense was a different story altogether. tressel seemed to open up the offense all year because he was comfortable enough with the entire offense that he didn't feel the need to tresselball it up to avoid mistakes. I don't think the Michigan game was that out of character for the offense that year. last year's rose bowl is a better example. who expected pryor to throw the ball 37 times?

To me it seems Tress plays conservative until he gets into important games then opens it up to surprise the other team.

Last year's rose bowl is a good example. I watched that game. I should've remembered that one. Yeah that 2006 team did have an outstanding offense. I think you're right about that game not being much different than the others. I just seemed like Tressel had a great game plan for that game, which is not surprising given how good of a coach he is and all the tools he had at his disposal that year. Just wondering, do you guys all agree that Troy Smith was the best QB Ohio State ever had? He's at least the best OSU QB I've seen in my sports lifetime.

Yeah I'd have to go with Troy I mean he won the Heisman ffs. Krenzel won the title so I'll always love him for that. I wasn't around for Rex Kern in 68. Hoying could sling the rock around (Galloway and Glenn ftw) and I love me some Joe germaine. Otoh Stanley Jackson and Steve bellisari can suck a dick. Preferably Todd boeckman's.

Hey guys, just passing this along.

Art Schlichter probbaly beats Troy Smith as a QB. It's fairly close, though.

Remind me to tell my belisari story later. I'm on my phone and don't feel like typing it out

God I miss the belisari era.

Joe Germaine was a better QB than Stanley Jackson, but imo, against Michigan Stanley Jackson was the clear better choice. As you guys probably remember, we had a great defense in 96 and 97, but Jackson could always move the ball on us whereas we simply ate Germaine alive. I really believe that if Cooper would've played Jackson the whole game vs us in 96 and 97, Ohio State would've won both games.

Shut your whore mouth