Quote:
Originally Posted by TomCollins
I'm more worried about Iowa and Wisconsin than Miami. There are a lot of chances to drop a game or two.
Chances of running the table are a lot closer to 25% than 95%, and I am pretty optimistic. It's just a very hard task to do when you don't have a Boise State schedule.
75% to win 3 games, and a 85-90% to win a few others puts us very close to 25%. Our odds of winning a championship this year are probably higher than they have been since 2006. Next year is always possible if Pryor comes back, which is a decent chance. I'd rather have a good season this year, though, even if it means losing him.
I'm a bit worried I am going to miss that Miami game. My wife is due Sep. 26th. I can live with missing Eastern. OU always plays closer than they should, plus I can talk trash to my sister. @ Illinois is fine to miss too.
That's the kind of math that most people ignore, especially around NCAA tournament time. It's just too much of a reality check to bring out the calculator and realize that no matter how great your team is, they're still a HUGE underdog to win it all.
That said, I do think tOSU is the best team in the nation given what they accomplished last year and the copious amount of starters coming back. If I had to pick Ohio State's biggest game this year, it comes down to this: Iowa lost a lot on its offensive line. Miami lost a lot on its offensive line. Wisconsin lost a lot on their defensive line. Whichever team handles that loss the best will be tOSU's toughest opponent. Based on last year's records and returning starters, all 3 opponents look about the same. That is they all look pretty damn good. With Miami at home, I would be more worried about Iowa and Wisconsin also. IMO, if Ohio State wins 2/3 of those games, and cleans everyone else up, their fans should be very proud. I wonder what the odds are of tOSU winning the BigTen championship? I would guess around 90%, and that actually feels conservative.
Anyways, I can't wait til 9/11. Michigan vs ND and Ohio State vs Miami. Should be a fun day. Would be nice also if Penn State can actually stay with Alabama for 3 quarters, but I think that's just fantasy talk.