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New England Patriots: Knocking on Seven's Door (Now with Happy Endings) New England Patriots: Knocking on Seven's Door (Now with Happy Endings)

12-06-2011 , 11:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Salva135
Well we can play semantics but after watching games from all three teams recently it's my opinion that the Steelers and Ravens are better teams right now. If you want to say "it's close," then go ahead. As I said above, they would be dogs on the road and small faves at home. Chim agrees and so would most outside of this STT.
nobody with any idea of what they are talking about would agree with your assesments. sure, the average person might agree with you, but that means squat.

ffs, NE closed at something like -20 at home TWO days ago, BAL is -16.5 vs the same team TODAY, yet you say BAL is favs at home vs NE....i mean you are looking at irrefutable evidence that says you are wrong.

i anticipate your "but NE only won by x points vs indy" argument, which is silly because of lolsample size but feel free to use it anyway.

regarding PITT, NE was a field goal favorite vs them IN PITT like 6 weeks ago...not a lot has changed since then.....i will say they probably wouldnt be a field goal favorite now.

doesnt matter anyway, cuz those ****** ass teams are coming to gillette come january!
New England Patriots: Knocking on Seven's Door (Now with Happy Endings) Quote
12-06-2011 , 12:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sublime
its about gambling, a sharp marketplace, and football and you want cliffs? read it, its great.

cliffs though:

salva has no idea what hes talking about.

the efficient marketplace has NE as a few notches better than both PIT and BAL, advanced NFL stats has NE and Pit as interchangeable and both clearly better than BAL...FO has NE better than both of them by a small amount.

even a simple look at point differential has NE looking better....yet, apparently salva watched the games more intently than people who bet sports for a living so hes probably right.
ANFLS has Pit better than NE by a decent margin.. and NE better than Balt by almost as big of a margin.

It has Houston way better than all of them, but that does not take into account the Schaub/AJ factor. Poor Texans.
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12-06-2011 , 04:31 PM
If you were wondering why the Pats/Broncos game hasnt been flexed to primetime yet, it's apparently because CBS/NBC are fighting for it

http://www.denverpost.com/sports/ci_19481626

Apparently Robert Kraft wants the game to stay at 1pm. The Ravens/Chargers game would be moved if it gets flexed.
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12-06-2011 , 04:37 PM
I get the marketing reasons of flexing it.. But uhh pats by at least two scores.
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12-06-2011 , 04:41 PM
I wonder why Kraft wants it to stay?

must be b/c he he is tight with CBS, and this would be good for CBS. but still, you would think he wants a primetime game. or maybe it's BB whispering to him that he doesn't want to play a night game out west
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12-06-2011 , 05:43 PM
Kraft has no say, right?

Besides his pull with CBS maybe telling them to protect it.
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12-06-2011 , 10:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chim17
ANFLS has Pit better than NE by a decent margin.. and NE better than Balt by almost as big of a margin.

It has Houston way better than all of them, but that does not take into account the Schaub/AJ factor. Poor Texans.
wrote my post before the new ANS was out.

Closing line is more important than either of them anyway, imo. obviously because of injuries but also because of less obvious reasons. ANS is supposed to be predictive, but is based on ypp metrics which BB has basically shown to be flawed over the years. FO iirc weights for red zone performance but again probably not correctly. im not saying this to disparage either of them, those guys are way smarter than i am. i am just a HUGE believer in the marketplace....when there are groups out there that can bet 100's of thousands on a game, those closing lines are going to be the best information we have as to what the reality of team strengths are in the league.

i feel bad for HOU....i really wish they were even reasonably healthy.

Last edited by sublime; 12-06-2011 at 10:36 PM.
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12-07-2011 , 02:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sublime
nobody with any idea of what they are talking about would agree with your assesments. sure, the average person might agree with you, but that means squat.

ffs, NE closed at something like -20 at home TWO days ago, BAL is -16.5 vs the same team TODAY, yet you say BAL is favs at home vs NE....i mean you are looking at irrefutable evidence that says you are wrong.

i anticipate your "but NE only won by x points vs indy" argument, which is silly because of lolsample size but feel free to use it anyway.

regarding PITT, NE was a field goal favorite vs them IN PITT like 6 weeks ago...not a lot has changed since then.....i will say they probably wouldnt be a field goal favorite now.

doesnt matter anyway, cuz those ****** ass teams are coming to gillette come january!

I've never used an argument like that, although giving up 21 to Dan Orlovsky in the 4th quarter even in our herp-derp prevent mode is a little bothersome. I mean, the NFL is all LOLsample size. Feel free to just look at the lines and compare/contrast to outright declare your opinion of the relative strength of teams. If right now you aren't questioning if the Pats could beat the Ravens or Steelers in their house, then good for you.
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12-07-2011 , 06:54 AM
just typed out a response, then lol'd at myself and erased it....dunno why i fall for these traps.
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12-07-2011 , 09:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sublime
just typed out a response, then lol'd at myself and erased it....dunno why i fall for these traps.
so sorry I wasted your precious time.
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12-07-2011 , 09:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chim17
Kraft has no say, right?

Besides his pull with CBS maybe telling them to protect it.
link

basically it's the NFL's call, but CBS is kind of pissed about this. and since they pay the NFL huge $$$$ every year, it's not really in the NFL best interests to tell them to go screw. even though they technically have the right to

the part I mentioned about Kraft is referenced similarly at the end
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12-07-2011 , 04:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Salva135
If right now you aren't questioning if the Pats could beat the Ravens or Steelers in their house, then good for you.
Right. Pats are incapable of beating the Ravens or Steelers on the road. You are bat**** insane.

I mean, if you want to argue they are 40% or whatever, fine. But stop saying stupid **** like "questioning if they can beat them." That's the rambling of a lunatic.
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12-07-2011 , 06:37 PM
I think Kraft has two reasons to lobby against the flex. His partnership with CBS at Patriot Place; and maybe he believes, like I do, that home-ice advantage is magnified in a prime time atmosphere.

BTW, the Patriots NEVER win in Denver. If I were in charge, I'd fly from Washington after the game directly to Denver, and give my guys the whole week to acclimate to the altitude. And I'd work their asses off in practice at that altitude. Hell, forget Mile High, we might spend the week at 8000-9000'.

I'm telling you, Denver's altitude advantage is the most under-rated thing in sports. The only thing that could beat it is if we got an expansion franchise in Atlantis, and visiting teams had to play us underwater.
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12-07-2011 , 09:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by youtalkfunny

BTW, the Patriots NEVER win in Denver.

8-18 lifetime is slightly better than never

Maybe we just take an intentional safety right away to guarantee the win stategery wise

Last edited by MDoranD; 12-07-2011 at 09:16 PM.
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12-08-2011 , 02:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Salva135
so sorry I wasted your precious time.
you didnt, but i spend 10 minutes on a response that you either dont read or misinterpret to such a degree that its basically the same and it happens over and over.
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12-08-2011 , 02:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Donkey OT
Right. Pats are incapable of beating the Ravens or Steelers on the road. You are bat**** insane.

I mean, if you want to argue they are 40% or whatever, fine. But stop saying stupid **** like "questioning if they can beat them." That's the rambling of a lunatic.
+1
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12-08-2011 , 02:59 AM
Broncos game will not get flexed to prime time...maybe Kraft does have as much pull as it looks like he has, in every single area.

Haven't seen it mentioned in here, but with a win in Washington and a Jets loss to KC, we would clinch the division.
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12-09-2011 , 08:01 PM
The Ravens and Steelers are our scariest matchups en route to a SB berth. The Ravens are a bigger problem because their D can make Tom eat more grass than see touchdowns, and Ray Rice is a problem for this defense, we've seen it before.

I never said we were incapable of beating them, I just pointed out that we will probably be dogs if they are at home and slight faves at home.
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12-10-2011 , 07:54 AM
Belichick's weekly press conference. I really enjoyed him talking about the evolution of defense, starts at about 9:45...but the first 9:45 ain't bad, either.

http://www.patriots.com/media-center...a-0b579cec903e

The reporter he's chatting with at the beginning is the Globe's beat reporter who is leaving to take a job in Baltimore.

EDIT: He doesn't look too worried about the Redskins, does he?
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12-10-2011 , 09:47 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Salva135
The Ravens and Steelers are our scariest matchups en route to a SB berth. The Ravens are a bigger problem because their D can make Tom eat more grass than see touchdowns, and Ray Rice is a problem for this defense, we've seen it before.

I never said we were incapable of beating them, I just pointed out that we will probably be dogs if they are at home and slight faves at home.
actually, what you said is "if you're not questioning if the patriots can win, good for you" which implies you are not sure if they can win.

and yes, we know, you are smarter than the books.
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12-10-2011 , 10:47 AM
i could listen to Belichick for hours and hours and hours
New England Patriots: Knocking on Seven's Door (Now with Happy Endings) Quote
12-10-2011 , 02:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sublime
i could listen to Belichick for hours and hours and hours
Me too. I also like reading the transcripts of his press conferences.

http://www.patriots.com/news/article...5-93907decd850

Quote:
I don’t think that that’s necessarily - let’s put it this way, at whatever point a coach takes a player from offense and puts him on defense, there is usually a reason for that. I would say the reason usually is that he’s not enough of a playmaker on the offensive side of the ball. What coach is going to take your best playmaker and put him on defense? You just wouldn’t do that, all the things being equal. If the guy can’t catch but he’s a good athlete or he’s everything but he doesn’t have great hands, at some point you get a receiver who is a better pass catcher and you put this guy over on defense. You get a guy who is big and strong and tough, but he’s just not elusive enough runner, he just can’t run over everybody, you can run over guys that are smaller than you but at some point when everybody is the same size, you just can’t run over those guys and he doesn’t have the elusiveness then you put him over on defense and you get a more elusive running back. Whether that’s at high school, college or wherever it is, and I tell the defensive players all the time, ‘Don’t kid yourself. If you were a big enough playmaker, you would have stayed on offense. Either at the high school or the college level they would have put you out there and you’d be out there having 100 yard receiving game or 150 yard rushing games. You’d be doing that. Don’t kid yourself.’ It’s like the defensive specialist in basketball, if you were that good of a shooter, you’d be the point guard but you’re not so start covering these guys or we’ll get somebody else in there.
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12-10-2011 , 02:33 PM
Haha awesome
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12-10-2011 , 07:04 PM
Thanks for the transcripts link!

Quote:
BB: I don’t think so. I think going back to when I first came into the league, you just didn’t have as many personnel groups as you have now. A lot of times, those 11 guys never left the field. Like the Hail Marys from [Roger] Staubach back in the ‘70s, it’s just their regular offense, a guy running a go route. It wasn’t all those guys together jumping it and tipping it and that type of thing.

When I came into the league, you rarely saw - you saw a tight end, you saw two receivers, you saw two backs. Whatever, you had four backs, those four replaced those two, those two replaced the other two. If you had two tight ends, then your tight end replaced the other tight end. There were no two tight end sets. Even in goal line, short yardage on the one yard line, you still usually had two spread receivers, there were no third receiver.

There were a few teams that played some nickel defense, like the Redskins when George Allen was there but it wasn’t really nickel, it was just the defensive back came in for a linebacker. They played the exact same thing but it was just a DB instead of a linebacker having those coverage responsibilities so he was maybe a little more athletic and had a little more coverage skill. If something happened to him, they would just put their linebacker back in and just run the same thing.

It really wasn’t until like in the late ‘70s to early ‘80s when you had teams running two tight ends and one back and even starting to get into three receivers.

I remember being with the Giants in ‘81 and we didn’t even have a nickel defense. That was a big step. I can’t remember what year it was, maybe it was ‘82 or ‘83, we were like ‘Okay, we’re going to put in the nickel this year.’ It was like ‘Oh my God, this is going to be a big step, how are we going to do this?’ and terminology and all that. We didn’t even have that. You had maybe if it was third and ten, you had a third and ten call that was different than your first and ten call, I’m not saying that but as far as substituting guys in.

Therefore, what we have now in terms of depth is more of an issue. There were fewer players than but honestly there were fewer positions. Now there are more players but you have three receivers, you have two tight end sets, you have all your five DBs, maybe your six DBs, you’ve got your pass rush guys, which is the whole, it’s like college football where it’s expanding rosters to go on and on. You’ve got your backup punter, you’ve got your plus-50 punter, you’ve got your short field goal kicker, you’ve got your field goal snapper, you’ve got a punt snapper, you’ve got an onside kick guy, you’ve got four tight ends on this formation, you’ve got five wide receivers on this formation - it’s just more and more substitutional groups if you have more and more players. It gets further away from just the 11 guys that you had out there.

You can take it all the way back to the ‘50s in college football when you didn’t have free substitution, guys went both ways. You look at some of the old defenses there, why were teams playing a 5-3 and a 6-2? Because it was the same guys that had to play offense. You had to take your offensive players and put them on defense or more importantly, you had to take your defensive players and then fit them onto offense. If a lot of fullbacks looked like guards it’s because they were linebackers on defense.

The game, in terms of substitution and all that has expanded tremendously. Your depth now, you have to have, if you’re a three receiver team, you don’t go to the game necessarily with six receivers or if you’re a two tight end team, you don’t necessarily go to the game with four tight ends, so you can’t have a backup for each guy like it used to be. You have to have either different personnel groups or one guy backing up multiple spots, stuff like that.


Q: Was it Washington that kind of spurred all the different packages?


BB: I’d say they were ahead of the curve on that, yeah. George Allen was ahead of the curve on that. I think he also was one of the guys that started to take the middle linebacker out. They would take their outside linebacker, [Chris] Hamburger and slide him into the middle. You had a Sam, Mike and Will and your inside guy a lot of times was the least of those three coverage players. If you took your Will and bumped him into Mike and then put a DB in, which a lot of teams do now, similar thing, you’d just have a more athletic, better pass coverage on the field. Allen was, I would say, ahead of the curve on that.

Once the multiple receiver sets came in then defensively you have to match those. Really defensively you have to match what the offense does. If you can just put one group out there and defend everything, great. But it’s hard to do, it’s hard to do. They bring in bigger people, well somewhere along the line, you’re probably going to need to match it with bigger people. They keep bringing in smaller people, like in the ‘80s when Mouse Davis and June Jones and those guys ran the run and shoot offense where you’re in four wide receivers on every single down, the 3-4 defense just wasn’t built for that! The 3-4 defense is built for I-formation. Now you match that with another DB or maybe two more DBs, depending on how you want to play it. But the more of those guys they put out, then you have to have somebody to put out there and match them.

Defensively, you don’t control that. Offensively, you control who is on the field, you control what formation they’re in and to some degree you control who gets the ball. Defensively, you don’t have control of any of that so you have to defend whatever it is they do.
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12-11-2011 , 06:26 AM
woo hoo! Pats are on local tv out here today! And I have a DVR! I can sleep in, skip commercials, watch the game, and still have time to get ready for work afterwards!

What a contrast in franchises. The absolute model franchise, versus the absolute nut-low franchise. Are Skins fans wearing bags over their heads yet?
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