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New England Patriots: Knocking on Seven's Door (Now with Happy Endings) New England Patriots: Knocking on Seven's Door (Now with Happy Endings)

11-01-2011 , 03:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by youtalkfunny
When you come on here and demand that the man responsible for this be "held accountable", that's just laughable.
When I said that I was thinking more along the lines that the organization is structured such that BB has complete authority over all football operations, and when a systemic problem arises (such as the defense over the past several years), there is no other voice to be heard. Nick Caserio is the director of pro personnel, but does anyone think he actually has a say in anything? From all accounts Pioli and Dimitroff actually contributed to scouting and development.

The bottom line is that BB has full control over the team and has had years to rebuild the defense and has ended up with crap ... even KBZ admits that the DB situation is a complete failure. BB isn't infallible, not every move he makes is "genius." Why are you some of you incapable of admitting that in certain instances, he just flat out has failed?

I don't feel "entitled" by criticizing one of the worst defenses in the league, created and developed at the hands of one man only.
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11-01-2011 , 06:04 PM
Just listened to Simmons/Cousin Sal "Guess the Lines" podcast. Simmons fits right in with you guys.

--Asked to pick which team was coming out of the AFC, Sal went with New England. Simmons was shocked. Shocked!

--Simmons guessed the Pats would be favored over the NYG this weekend by 4. FOUR! The line is 9. Simmons was shocked. Shocked! I've been following Simmons forever, it's rare that he's three points off, he's NEVER been five points off.

Every time this team loses a game, people act they've lost ten in a row.
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11-01-2011 , 06:49 PM
Quote:
PPG isn't a stat. It's THE SCORE. It counts. Yards don't count. Yards are irrelevant. When we come out and say, "We're taking away the deep ball, you can have all the underneath stuff you want," I'm not going to call it a failure when the other team takes what we give them.
the problem with just sortbypointsallowed is that

- it ignores luck
- it ignores the effect the offense has on you (starting field possession, # of possessions, ie a great offense will make a bad defense look better by always putting the other team in bad field position)
- basically it's all that matters in hindsight but there can be better things to project how good you actually are.

kind of like doing a power ranking just by sortbywins. wins are all that matters, right? so why would power rankings look any different than just all the teams in descending order of wins?

my guess is if you asked your man with the 1980's webpage how he does his picks - and asked him about the Pats defense - he would tell you an awful lot matters beyond just looking at points allowed
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11-01-2011 , 07:19 PM
Pats defense was atrocious last year but improved as the season went along. In fact, PPG was not bad at all by end of season - like last 8 games.

This year the defense sux but the Pats will make adjustments. Unfortunately, the secondary is awful right now.

Vs Pitt, the defense, for as bad as they played, they still only gave up 23 points (before the safety). Before the game, if you said Pitt would score 23 points, I would think the Pats would win.

Offense was not good at all this past game.

Pitt game plan was excellent on both sides of the ball and its the blue print to beating the Pats.
1. Pass the ball vs Pats terrible pass defense.
2. Jam Pats receivers at line of scrimmage.

Unless the Pats pass defense drastically improves, its going to be tough.
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11-01-2011 , 07:38 PM
I think the defense sucks. I also think that the pats are still the most likely team to come out of the afc and would challenge anybody to pick a team that they think has a better shot and we can do a bragging rights bet.
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11-01-2011 , 09:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Donkey OT
I think the defense sucks. I also think that the pats are still the most likely team to come out of the afc and would challenge anybody to pick a team that they think has a better shot and we can do a bragging rights bet.

Thinking about this actually makes me feel better about the Pats chances. Despite their terrible defense, I can't find a team in the AFC that I honestly feel has a significantly better chance than the Pats to reach the SB.

Despite this, I still can't wrap my head around the idea that a team with a defense this bad can actually win a SB.
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11-01-2011 , 10:17 PM
Nobody has a significantly better chance than really anyone anymore, but the Steelers and ravens are 2 teams, and the Pats will have to play one of them. Basically any good to excellent defense will match up well with the Pats because the opponant will have more room for error vs the Pats defense as opposed to the Pats offense vs a good/excellent defense.
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11-02-2011 , 08:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kneel B4 Zod

kind of like doing a power ranking just by sortbywins. wins are all that matters, right? so why would power rankings look any different than just all the teams in descending order of wins?

my guess is if you asked your man with the 1980's webpage how he does his picks - and asked him about the Pats defense - he would tell you an awful lot matters beyond just looking at points allowed
Now that you mention it, all the teams with the most wins are at the top of his list; the teams with the fewest wins are at the bottom; and the teams in the middle of the pack are in the middle.

So MY guess is, he'll tell you that you guys hammering the panic button are silly.

(Heh, I just went to Yahoo to compare the list to the standings, and the top headline on Yahoo's NFL page is complaining about the Patriots' lousy running game. So now we can't run, can't pass, and can't stop anybody. All that's left is to call Gostowski the worst PK in the league because he missed a FG this week...)
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11-02-2011 , 08:27 AM
By the way, if you don't like the players BB has brought in to play D, and you think he's not as good as he once was, remember this: back when we were winning SB's, Brady wasn't eating up half the team's cap number like he is now. I'm sure if BB had the money, he'd be happy to go after some big names on D.
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11-02-2011 , 09:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kneel B4 Zod
the problem with just sortbypointsallowed is that

- it ignores luck
- it ignores the effect the offense has on you (starting field possession, # of possessions, ie a great offense will make a bad defense look better by always putting the other team in bad field position)
- basically it's all that matters in hindsight but there can be better things to project how good you actually are.

kind of like doing a power ranking just by sortbywins. wins are all that matters, right? so why would power rankings look any different than just all the teams in descending order of wins?

my guess is if you asked your man with the 1980's webpage how he does his picks - and asked him about the Pats defense - he would tell you an awful lot matters beyond just looking at points allowed
This all makes sense except the "ignores luck" part. Luck goes into every single part of every single stat. There's luck everywhere. However, I don't think there is more luck in being able to keep a team out of the endzone and hold them to field goals then there is in any other stat. In fact, I would say there is less. The Pats have a good red zone defense. I wouldn't think a ton of luck factors into that.
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11-02-2011 , 11:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Goodie
This all makes sense except the "ignores luck" part. Luck goes into every single part of every single stat. There's luck everywhere. However, I don't think there is more luck in being able to keep a team out of the endzone and hold them to field goals then there is in any other stat. In fact, I would say there is less. The Pats have a good red zone defense. I wouldn't think a ton of luck factors into that.
Before this week the Pats red zone defense was ranked 20th in terms of TD%. It probably went up after the Steelers game, but is league average a "good red zone defense"?
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11-02-2011 , 11:56 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Debo9
Before this week the Pats red zone defense was ranked 20th in terms of TD%. It probably went up after the Steelers game, but is league average a "good red zone defense"?
How much did it go up after the Steelers game? Because yes, I would imagine it went up enough to make them a good red zone defense.
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11-02-2011 , 12:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by electricladylnd
Nobody has a significantly better chance than really anyone anymore, but the Steelers and ravens are 2 teams, and the Pats will have to play one of them. Basically any good to excellent defense will match up well with the Pats because the opponant will have more room for error vs the Pats defense as opposed to the Pats offense vs a good/excellent defense.
The ravens offense isn't very good. A little better than the pats defense but not much. Why doesnt that make it near impossible that they can win the afc?
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11-02-2011 , 12:46 PM
Although I would snap call a 7-1 bet on the bills vs the pats. They are really good.
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11-02-2011 , 01:05 PM
Although I do suck at math. I guess the fair line would be +466
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11-02-2011 , 03:36 PM
FYI at 8PM tonight ESPN2 is doing The Year of the Quarterback on Brady.
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11-02-2011 , 07:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dynasty
I'd rather the Patriots gave up than see Welker take another hit like that.
Welker missed practice with a neck injury.

http://espn.go.com/boston/nfl/story/...ts-neck-injury
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11-02-2011 , 09:57 PM
one thing i havent seen mentioned is NE's SOS this year, its been pretty brutal. when one of your easier games has been SD at home its been a tough 7 games....i predict weeks 11-16 people are like "wow defense has improved a lot" whether thats the case or not.
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11-02-2011 , 10:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Donkey OT
The ravens offense isn't very good. A little better than the pats defense but not much. Why doesnt that make it near impossible that they can win the afc?
The Ravens have score 29 or more points 5 out of 7 games, it's a little misleading b/c they scored a few td's by the defense but they are pretty decent compared to the Pats D, especially vs a defense that will give up a lot of yards. Add their defense being able to slow the Pats down and with the Pats letting teams move the ball, field position will be a big factor too. Can't expect to go 80 yards per drive vs the Ravens defense in the postseason. The field position issue might be a problem vs any good defense.

edit - I think the Pats are going to give up about 24 points a game in the playoffs, I just don't see them scoring more than that 2 games in a row.
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11-02-2011 , 11:09 PM
You don't see the pats scoring 24+ points two games in a row. I hate to break it to you but you might be delusional.
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11-03-2011 , 07:38 AM
Quote:
edit - I think the Pats are going to give up about 24 points a game in the playoffs, I just don't see them scoring more than that 2 games in a row.
lol. i like how the ****ty patriots defense has now gotten so bad in has spoiled the offense...... the the #2 offense in football cant score 24 points in consecutive games? despite having already done that 6/7 games this season vs:

a likely division winner (SD)
a likely wild card team (BUF)
a top 15 defense (DAL)
a top 5 defense and possible WC team (NYJ)

and of course the only team they didn't do it vs was a top 5 overall team on the road.
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11-03-2011 , 09:09 AM
Who are we rooting for this weekend in the Jets-Bills game? I feel like with a Pats win, it would be more beneficial for the Bills to win to really make it tough on the Jets to make a run at the division. And if we lose, it would be obviously better for the jets to win to put us in a three way tie and not have Buffalo have a game on us.

I'm going to rooting for the Bills because of my hatred for the Jets but I'm not sure it effects us all that negatively no matter who wins.

What's everyone else think?
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11-03-2011 , 09:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Donkey OT
You don't see the pats scoring 24+ points two games in a row. I hate to break it to you but you might be delusional.
How many points do you think the Pats score in the postseason? The last few postseasons they scored 10 ppg less than their regular season totals.

2010 - 21
2009 - 14
2007 - 14, 21, 31

They didn't even do it with the highest scoring offense in NFL history, now we expect them to do it now? Even with a defense that gives up yards that will hurt them in field position?
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11-03-2011 , 09:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sublime
lol. i like how the ****ty patriots defense has now gotten so bad in has spoiled the offense...... the the #2 offense in football cant score 24 points in consecutive games? despite having already done that 6/7 games this season vs:

a likely division winner (SD)
a likely wild card team (BUF)
a top 15 defense (DAL)
a top 5 defense and possible WC team (NYJ)

and of course the only team they didn't do it vs was a top 5 overall team on the road.
As you know, playoff football is not the same as regular season football, scoring gets harder. Most teams can't score 24+ points two games in a row in the playoffs.
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