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New England Patriots: Knocking on Seven's Door (Now with Happy Endings) New England Patriots: Knocking on Seven's Door (Now with Happy Endings)

09-14-2015 , 07:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jbrochu
Pats are favored by 1 point I think. How does that translate to winning probability?

Looked it up: basically 52:48.
Line shifted to PK now after opening -1. I agree with Tiger that it seems like a pretty favorable line for the Pats given history.
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09-15-2015 , 02:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kneel B4 Zod
Get out the jump to conclusions mat, but things broke well for us this weekend. The Colts lose an AFC game and don't look great in the process. Peyton throws 40 passes and manages 175 yards...that offense looks pretty unlikely to bounce back to 2013 or early 2014 form. Ravens are the 2nd best team in the AFC but lost Suggs for the year (and lost an AFC game). I know it's early to be looking at stuff like this but these tiebreakers often come down to tiny differences. Broncos were the team with the highest upside (if Peyton came back to being Peyton) but short of that happening I don't think there's gonna be a great team for us to contend with in the AFC.
Nice post.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DrawNone
thinking about it like that actually makes it more hilarious because, afaik, the line is black and white on defense and grey on offense. if a player on D isn't in the neutral zone, it's fine.
I remember when KC was good, Neil Smith would flinch (ie, wave his hand suddenly forward, as if he were springing from his stance) to get OL guys to jump, leading to the league banning that practice. I don't think he was entering the neutral zone.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kurn, son of Mogh
FWIW, it's way more enjoyable to be a fan of a winning team that's hated thought of as "The Evil Empire" than it would be to be a fan of a winning team that's loved and thought of as "America's Team."
Great point. It *was* annoying watching the Red Sox Nation bandwagon load up, and it *is* odlly satisfying that that didn't hapen with the Pats.

Quote:
Originally Posted by heh
Line shifted to PK now after opening -1. I agree with Tiger that it seems like a pretty favorable line for the Pats given history.
All of you who think the line is low: what do you think the line should be if the game were in Foxborough? If you think the Pats should be -7 at home, and if you agree that Home-Ice Advantage is worth about 3 pts in the NFL, that means you think NE should be -4 on a neutral field, and -1 at their place.
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09-15-2015 , 02:37 PM
BTW, if you're ever on the Cape and need to find a sports bar to watch the Pats game, Red Face Jack's in West Yarmouth is the ONLY place to go. I was staying in Chatham, went to two places there (including one so-called "sports bar"), and didn't spot a single Pats jersey. I barely made it to RFJ's in time for kickoff. Place was full, and all eyes were on the tvs, it was a great atmosphere.
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09-15-2015 , 03:51 PM
To give credit where due, Rex has defended Brady very well.

In the past 6 seasons, Brady has had one great and one very good game on the road vs Rex's Jets. (2012 144.5 QBR, 2011 118.4 QBR), 2 subpar ones (2014 76.1 QBR, 2010 72.5 QBR) and 2 bad ones (2013 53.5 QBR, 2009 53.1 QBR)

Pats won only one of the subpar/bad games games (2014). 3-3 vs Rex OTR since '09.

So sure, this is a tough game, but big deal. Under Belichick, the Pats always improve throughout the year
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09-15-2015 , 04:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by youtalkfunny
BTW, if you're ever on the Cape and need to find a sports bar to watch the Pats game, Red Face Jack's in West Yarmouth is the ONLY place to go. I was staying in Chatham, went to two places there (including one so-called "sports bar"), and didn't spot a single Pats jersey. I barely made it to RFJ's in time for kickoff. Place was full, and all eyes were on the tvs, it was a great atmosphere.
Didnt know about this place, have to check it out, thanks!
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09-20-2015 , 05:16 PM
Strange game to try and digest. D played great after the 1st drive until the 4th quarter. Then they seemed to lose discipline and contain and just start going for sacks and got burned several times for it. I think they will keep improving and be serviceable or better.

Not sure I like all those plays going for the fu when we should have used the time to our advantage. Otherwise offense is amazing. Brady's arm still super strong. Game ball to the young offensive line guys.

Felt like there were a ton of drops, yet Amendola pulled off a miracle catch so that balances out.

5 or 6 fumbles and the Bills got every one of them. This could have been a 35 point blow-out.

Not sure yet how we cheated.
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09-20-2015 , 05:27 PM
Yeah happy with the win and I dont think the final score reflects how the game really went. Only real annoying things to me was when imo they got too cute on the 2 4th and 1's.

Thought the OL was great, considering the matchup Brady had alot more time than I thought he would. Was happy to see Dobson have some catches. After a great rookie season he was just never right last year so hopefully he can regain some of that form this eason.

Chandler Jones had a great game. He has show flashes over the years and made some plays but this might be the first game where it looked like he was just a constant nuisance all game and threatened to take the game over.

Would love to see BB pull off a trade this year akin to picking up Talib a couple years ago.
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09-20-2015 , 06:49 PM
Any update on who is going to step up on offense after Gronk and Edelman?
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09-20-2015 , 07:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kneel B4 Zod
Any update on who is going to step up on offense after Gronk and Edelman?
HOUSE OF HORRORS

Wonder how long Salva will go into hiding this time.
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09-20-2015 , 07:18 PM
8 rushing attempts in a game we led for 50 minutes is such elite game-planning and coaching discipline.
New England Patriots: Knocking on Seven's Door (Now with Happy Endings) Quote
09-20-2015 , 07:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jbrochu
HOUSE OF HORRORS

Wonder how long Salva will go into hiding this time.
Hopefully forever.
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09-20-2015 , 07:27 PM
I'm not sold on Tyrod Taylor QBing a team to the playoffs.

Dolphins lost to Jacksonville.

LOL Jets always.


Have we clinched the division title yet?
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09-20-2015 , 07:32 PM
Brady's stats this year are sick. He's really struggling with those inflated balls.
New England Patriots: Knocking on Seven's Door (Now with Happy Endings) Quote
09-20-2015 , 07:32 PM
Ravens go to 0-2, Dez and now Romo out for @Cowboys. Things breaking our way early.
New England Patriots: Knocking on Seven's Door (Now with Happy Endings) Quote
09-20-2015 , 07:43 PM
Absolutely loved to see Dobson get some catches today. Offense looks super elite to me and Brady is on point. That catch by Amendola was truly outrageous. Top ten catches I've ever seen I think.
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09-20-2015 , 07:56 PM
Offense is still going to add Stork, LaFail, and Wendell.
New England Patriots: Knocking on Seven's Door (Now with Happy Endings) Quote
09-20-2015 , 08:10 PM
Oline is the best surprise so far with 3 rookies holding up. and today was the best pass rush we have seen since...?
New England Patriots: Knocking on Seven's Door (Now with Happy Endings) Quote
09-20-2015 , 08:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kneel B4 Zod
Oline is the best surprise so far with 3 rookies holding up. and today was the best pass rush we have seen since...?
definitely. I don't remember any significant pressure up the middle and Solder returned to his expected form.

Brady's quick decision making takes a lot of pressure off the line no matter how they're playing, and when they're protecting well the game is like 7 on 7 in practice.
New England Patriots: Knocking on Seven's Door (Now with Happy Endings) Quote
09-20-2015 , 09:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kneel B4 Zod
Any update on who is going to step up on offense after Gronk and Edelman?
Lewis and Dobson pretty useful too, but I'm sure there will be whining about the defense this week.

With Romo out the QBs the rest of the year are not good.
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09-20-2015 , 09:39 PM
Ravens, Colts, Seahawks, Steelers, Rex. This has been a whirlwind of hatred going back to the playoffs last year. Frankly, it's exhausting. But now somehow the Jaguars are up and coming to town. Can never take any game for granted, but there will be a week off of home-based journalists tweeting "suspicions" and head coaches making digs. Feels like a vacation. Phew.
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09-20-2015 , 10:55 PM
If the Pats beat Indy they go undefeated.
New England Patriots: Knocking on Seven's Door (Now with Happy Endings) Quote
09-20-2015 , 11:20 PM
Team is flawed but obviously ridiculously talented. Defense is iffy but opportunistic enough i think to win. Offense seems absolutely locked in with Brady/Gronk/Edelman. Game after game it's all "how do we shut down Gronk" and he still goes for 0.85 tds/game and 80ish yards or whatever.

Edit: also, sample size is weird especially with dropped passes and the fact that they had 60 attempts this game but Brady seems scary accurate this year. I think they've kinda come to accept what that offense can and can't do and they're gonna be in that groove. What was Brady's longest completion vs total yards? It's just 10, 20, 20, 10, 20, 20...
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09-21-2015 , 12:18 AM
What does everyone think of Dion Lewis? How good can he be? I think he has tons of upside for us. I'm super excited about this offense. I'm actually loving McDaniel's play calling this year, and our scheming/ game planning has been on point. Brady is playing mother****ing lights out.

Im loving some of the goalline plays we have been calling this year. That formation they keep running down there, which motions and isolates one TE to the right (Williams I think?) , and then Gronk and Chandler out to the other side. Those plays are for the most part unstoppable right now.
New England Patriots: Knocking on Seven's Door (Now with Happy Endings) Quote
09-21-2015 , 01:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by EddyB66
If the Pats beat Indy they go undefeated.
Seems a bit premature imo, however I do think their schedule is soft this year. I'm glad we got the NFC East as our crossover division, that was a nice bit of luck. I count maybe 4 tough games remaining, and that includes the Cowboys which might be too generous without Romo and Bryant.
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09-21-2015 , 08:40 AM
One impression from the game: Belichick really likes Dion Lewis.

They just put up 40 on the road vs a top 5 defense.

Love the 4 TE sets.
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