Quote:
Originally Posted by Toro
Count me as one who also was yelling at the TV to try the 62 yard FG at the end of the game. But looking back (and maybe it's just because we won) but if you work out the percentages I'll bet the chances for a successful hail mary are at least as good as making that kick. Then factor in that the Hail Mary is nearly 100% safe and the FG is not, I can see why BB didn't try it.
this is the only thing I was able to find. of course, the sample size of guys attempting 60+ yard FG's is really small, but going by the below, it can't be more than 15% or so to make it. it is literally...off the charts. the below chart is by line of scrimmage - Pats were on the 45 iirc. see that after 53 yard field goals or so, there is a very steep decline in probability, that seems to be the "tipping point".
Hail Mary's are probably even less, but the only thing that makes it close is a potential PI call. then again it's pretty rare to see PI called on a true hail mary.
either way your win % is extremely small, but I tend to agree with the FG %. I'm quite sure BB ran through the same #'s and has exactly prepared for this decision, so he has to disagree with some of those assumptions,
now, Gost does have a huge leg, one of the biggest or the single biggest in the league. but I doubt many coaches have weak legged kickers attempt 55 yarders, so the #'s probably already reflect that these kicks are only taken by strong kickers.
Last edited by Kneel B4 Zod; 10-18-2010 at 12:00 PM.