New England Patriots: Knocking on Seven's Door (Now with Happy Endings) - Page 227 - Single-Team Season Threads -- Two Plus Two Poker Forums

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New England Patriots: Knocking on Seven's Door (Now with Happy Endings)

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09-08-2014 , 11:45 AM

#5651

LetsGambool

banned

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 26,568

15-1 obviously wins for you LDO

Quote

09-08-2014 , 12:28 PM

#5652

gs3737

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 4,719

Quote:

Originally Posted by kidcolin

I'd bet a sizeable chunk on 7-9 vs 14-2. 8 more losses is more likely than only one more loss.

Make it 13-3 and I will bet on this.

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09-08-2014 , 12:30 PM

#5653

gs3737

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 4,719

I somehow find myself agreeing with Goodie here. It was a ****ty half in the hot Miami weather. Hardly ready to throw in the towel on this team. Way, way too much talent, and enough of a track record to not get too concerned over a single game.

If anyone wants action, I will take the Patriots winning the division + -1.5 games over 2nd place.

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09-08-2014 , 12:43 PM

#5654

LetsGambool

banned

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 26,568

Certainly no reason to throw in the towel on the season, but its not a forgone conclusion they right the ship and win 12+ games.

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09-08-2014 , 12:52 PM

#5655

gs3737

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 4,719

I agree Gambool, nothing is a given. But this 7-9 talk is pretty silly IMO.

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09-08-2014 , 01:08 PM

#5656

LetsGambool

banned

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 26,568

I think its a perfectly reasonable pessimistic case. Its going to happen some year, no team stays near the top of the league for every season forever.

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09-08-2014 , 01:21 PM

#5657

gs3737

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 4,719

I agree that is will happen eventually, but I don't see how that happens this year. Teams don't stay at the top forever, but how often do they drop off a cliff in one season? This team went 12-4 and made the title game last year. I think they are vastly improved overall (assuming health). 7-9 this year, barring an injury to Brady, isn't reasonable in the least. Just my $.02.

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09-08-2014 , 01:27 PM

#5658

LetsGambool

banned

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 26,568

Houston Texans: 12-4 '12 2-14 '13
Washington Redskins: 10-6 '12 3-13 '13
Atlanta Falcons: 13-3 '12 4-12 '13
Minnesota Vikings 10-6 '12 5-10-1 '13

Id certainly bet on something closer to 11-5 than 7-9, but teams drop 5 wins+ in a season fairly regularly. Seems like a reasonably pessimistic case to me, YMMV.

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09-08-2014 , 01:33 PM

#5659

Jbrochu

banned

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 16,054

Quote:

Originally Posted by Goodie

Let's also not forget that we gifted the Dolphins their first touchdown. People tend to forget what happens early but this game should have been 20-3 at the half.

Patriots miscues are a gift, but the 3 Fins turnovers are all credits to the Pats D?

We know fumble recoveries have a large component of luck involved. And Dennard's INT really should have been a TD for the bad guys.

I think talk of 7-9 is premature, but if the o-line and run defense doesn't look much improved against the Vikings I might jump into a grease fire.

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09-08-2014 , 01:38 PM

#5660

LetsGambool

banned

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 26,568

Philbin also gifted the Pats a point or two of equity with that hilarious decline decision before the half.

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09-08-2014 , 01:40 PM

#5661

gs3737

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 4,719

I respect your opinion and get what you are saying, but none of those teams are like NE. Those were one year outliers for average/below average teams.

Texans went 10-6 and 6-10 the previous 2 years.
Redskins 5-11, 6-10
Vikings 3-13, 6-10

2012 was a spike for these teams with everything falling into place. The dropoff for them was not only reasonable, but expected. Falcons were consistently good, got destroyed by injuries.

We can agree to disagree. Let's see what happens in Minnesota. I think they lay it to the Vikings, call it a homer hunch.

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09-08-2014 , 01:50 PM

#5662

LetsGambool

banned

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 26,568

Hope you are right, no chance that I bet them as road favs again right now.

Again, if I had to bet on one specific record right now, Id bet 11-5. Just think the range is a bit wider than people think.

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09-08-2014 , 01:53 PM

#5663

gs3737

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 4,719

I don't blame you. Hopefully we will all be singing a different tune a week from now.

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09-08-2014 , 02:02 PM

#5664

kidcolin

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 109,033

Quote:

Originally Posted by gs3737

Make it 13-3 and I will bet on this.

I'll do 8-8 or worse vs 13-3 or better for up to 1k.

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09-08-2014 , 02:02 PM

#5665

Goodie

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 5,694

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jbrochu

Patriots miscues are a gift, but the 3 Fins turnovers are all credits to the Pats D?

We know fumble recoveries have a large component of luck involved. And Dennard's INT really should have been a TD for the bad guys.

I think talk of 7-9 is premature, but if the o-line and run defense doesn't look much improved against the Vikings I might jump into a grease fire.

Of course the turnovers by the Phins weren't all credit to the Pats D. So, they clearly gifted us some points as well.

I just wanted to remind everyone of that blocked punt since it's easy to forget as it happened so early in the game. That's all.

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09-08-2014 , 02:56 PM

#5666

Habsfan09

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,552

Being optimistic: The last time we lost week 1 we went on to win the whole thing. I would take that outcome in a heartbeat. Really sucks to have to wait a whole week for next game after such a game.

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09-08-2014 , 03:09 PM

#5667

gs3737

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 4,719

Quote:

Originally Posted by kidcolin

I'll do 8-8 or worse vs 13-3 or better for up to 1k.

Ok that works. Let me get back to you with a $$ amount (def not going $1k)

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09-08-2014 , 04:01 PM

#5668

kidcolin

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 109,033

Yeah it's fine. I'm cool with as little as 50. I think we push 98% of the time anyway.

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09-08-2014 , 04:20 PM

#5669

gs3737

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 4,719

Quote:

Originally Posted by kidcolin

Yeah it's fine. I'm cool with as little as 50. I think we push 98% of the time anyway.

True.

How about $100??

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09-08-2014 , 04:42 PM

#5670

kidcolin

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 109,033

Booked

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09-08-2014 , 05:14 PM

#5671

Toro

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 9,791

Quote:

Originally Posted by Goodie

Booked. Yeah, I assumed 7-9 or worse.

Goodie, you're my least favorite poster but I have to congratulate on booking what is essentially a free roll. Chance to win $1000 vs permaban on SE. Please someone offer me a prop bet where if I lose, all that happens is I can't post. Well done Goodie!

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09-08-2014 , 05:41 PM

#5672

LetsGambool

banned

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 26,568

Its a free $25 of equity or thereabouts.

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09-08-2014 , 05:52 PM

#5673

Toro

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 9,791

Quote:

Originally Posted by LetsGambool

Its a free $25 of equity or thereabouts.

Yeah, probably. Neither 7-9 nor 14-2 are very likely.

Quote

09-08-2014 , 08:46 PM

#5674

Prawney

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 5,646

What im struggling to make sense of was I thought this team was one of the better ones of the last few years, while the 2nd half vs the Fins was one of the worst halfs ive seen them play in recent years.

Next few weeks will show whether i massively over-rated the team or if that 2nd half was just an outlier

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09-08-2014 , 08:58 PM

#5675

LetsGambool

banned

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 26,568

So what changes should they make going into the Vikings game? Jordan Devey and Joe Vellano not getting snaps is where Id start. Devey might be the worst OL getting playing time in the league, and Vellano trying to play in a 3-4 is in the same ballpark.

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