New England Patriots: Knocking on Seven's Door (Now with Happy Endings) - Page 12 - Single-Team Season Threads -- Two Plus Two Poker Forums

ESPN has analysis giving the Pats the win 79% of the time by punting and 80.5% of the time by going for it on 4th and 2.

http://espn.go.com/boston/columns/pa..._/post/4660828

Any thoughts or refinements to this analysis?

Quote

11-16-2009 , 10:39 PM

#278

feedthabeast

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 8,302

Yesterday was quite possibly the worst Sunday ever. I bricked every tournament I played except for one mini-cash (as did everyone I bought a stake in), and this game...not only that it caused me to lifetilt onto today and brick another full session of tourneys, further showing me I still have tilt issues when I just thought I had them under control. Cheers to cashing out 1/2 my roll again and moving down in stakes til I prove I'm not a tilt monkey....

Ughhhhhhhhhhhh.

Quote

11-16-2009 , 10:54 PM

#279

DeadMoneyWalking

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 32,369

Quote:

Originally Posted by beatdownpro

a difference smaller than error margins doesn't mean much. I trust the SE posters more because they are gamblers and have to know this stuff.

Ha, I type it out to realize how dumb I sound. Anyway they estimated it ranged from slightly better to about 10% better.

Quote

11-16-2009 , 10:55 PM

#280

DeadMoneyWalking

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 32,369

Quote:

Originally Posted by feedthabeast

Do you play live where you are?

Quote

11-18-2009 , 02:58 PM

#281

TheNoodleMan

Wet Noodle

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 16,566

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kneel B4 Zod

Good news: Vollmer is the real deal, no doubt. we are going to have a good problem when Light comes back, which could be as soon as this week. Light or Vollmer to RT? I think they are both good enough that they have to be on the field, but transitioning someone to RT, particularly a young guy, is hard to do.

The Pats were giving Vollmer a ton of help. Not just a TE chipping either, they were putting in an extra O-linemen on a bunch of plays.

Its the sort of personnel change that gets little attention on TV but is really obvious live because the ref has to announce that he's eligible every time he comes in. I have never heard the ref report half as much as I did on Sunday Night. Usually its a strategy that is used in short yardage situations, but the Pats were doing it all over the field. Lots of credit to the coaching staff because it definitely worked.

Quote

11-18-2009 , 11:05 PM

#282

Kneel B4 Zod

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 27,952

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheNoodleMan

you know I have heard conflicting reports on this, and it wasn't what I was primarily paying attention

in FO's Cover 3 today Doug Farrar had glowing reviews of Vollmer. someone mentioned that he had help 85% of the time...which is then in dispute a bit. so yeah I dunno, but anyways the team seemed to do fine, even if Vollmers individual contr is a bit unclear

Quote

11-18-2009 , 11:10 PM

#283

BillNye

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 10,048

just wanted to say that Belicheck going for it on 4th was ****ing awesome and prob the right move (fairly close, but the fact that 0 other coaches consider it means he's the only guy on that level trying to figure out if its good or not). Any pats fans pissed about that really need to live a day in the life of any other team in the NFL where 99% of the coaches suck hard.

Quote

11-18-2009 , 11:52 PM

#284

DeadMoneyWalking

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 32,369

The worst part of it is our rematch will again have to be @ Indy. And we might have to go to Cincy first.

Quote

11-19-2009 , 04:25 AM

#285

MDoranD

MDaddyD

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 10,288

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeadMoneyWalking

The worst part of it is our rematch will again have to be @ Indy. And we might have to go to Cincy first.

lol we will blow thru cinci and if we have to go to indy i dont think they are real excited to play us again either

that said im very interested to see how we perform this week coming off of that loss

Quote

11-19-2009 , 08:30 AM

#286

Toro

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 9,791

During the game they were constantly pointing out that Vollmer was often getting no help and the close ups on him bore this out so I don't know where this is coming from?

Quote

11-22-2009 , 05:30 PM

#287

MDoranD

MDaddyD

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 10,288

Maroney is the worst starting RB in the league

Quote

11-22-2009 , 05:33 PM

#288

feedthabeast

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 8,302

Cool man... HOW THE **** DID THEY CHANGE THE RULING TO A FUMBLE? YOU COULDN'T SEE **** AND THEY RULED HIM DOWN FIRST THIS IS A ****ING JOKE!

Quote

11-22-2009 , 08:54 PM

#289

Toro

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2002 Posts: 9,791

Well we are 7-3 but something is nagging me a little about this team. Can we win on the road? The only road game that we won was against the Bucs in London so that's really a neutral site, so basically we have yet to win a true road game this year.

Quote

11-23-2009 , 11:36 AM

#290

Scary_Tiger

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 21,487

Quote:

Originally Posted by Toro

You watched the game at Indianapolis and questioned whether we could win on the road? At Denver? At New York? This is a ridiculous concern, we're 0-3 on the road, but have only been outscored by a total of 11 points. And no, this still isn't going to be a concern if we lose at New Orleans this week.

Quote

11-23-2009 , 12:24 PM

#291

splashpot

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 8,203

I'd be more concerned with 2nd half performance. Sure, we won by 17, but offensively we played a poor 2nd half. The game was never out of reach for the Jets.

Quote

11-23-2009 , 12:40 PM

#292

Kneel B4 Zod

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 27,952

Quote:

Originally Posted by splashpot

I'd be more concerned with 2nd half performance. Sure, we won by 17, but offensively we played a poor 2nd half. The game was never out of reach for the Jets.

the Jets have a Top 5 defense and are going to make even great offenses look bad in spurts. yeah, we didn't look great for much of the 2nd half but you gotta give credit to a good defense playing well.

on balance though the Pats offense looked great, 410 yards and 24 offensive points. that was as abused as the NYJ defense has been all year. The Saints put up 343 yards and 10 offensive points vs them.

the game was close largely b/c of the blocked punt TD, you don't like to see that but meh it happens maybe once a year.

overall, this was a very good performance...it just looks mundane against the backdrop of their recent performances.

Quote

11-23-2009 , 02:03 PM

#293

MDoranD

MDaddyD

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 10,288

Maroney runs hard occasionally, like 30% of the time, but other times he looks like hes tip toeing around up there. Also he gets hurt a lot and fumbles way too damn much for my liking. His TD stats are inflated by scores from inside the 5. If BB had to cut a starter today can anyone say it wouldnt automatically be Maroney?

Quote

11-23-2009 , 02:04 PM

#294

TheNoodleMan

Wet Noodle

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 16,566

WTF is Brady doing in the game and throwing deep with a 3 score lead and 30 seconds left?

And Moss in the game for Hail Mary defense when you're up 3 scores with 5 seconds left?

What is the upside? Seems like they're just begging for something random and bad to happen.

Quote

11-23-2009 , 02:33 PM

#295

capone0

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 43,152

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kneel B4 Zod

They haven't been a top 5 D since big Jenkins went down a couple of weeks ago. Obviously still good but they have lost some of their edge.

Quote

11-23-2009 , 03:08 PM

#296

Kneel B4 Zod

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 27,952

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheNoodleMan

I think it's easy to overblow the Brady thing. they are in kill the clock mode. on 1st and 2nd down they run the ball. on 3rd and 6 they throw a pass to try to get the 1st down/end the game, and the play happens to be a deepish throw to Moss. I don't think anyone has a problem with this if it's an 8 yard out route by some TE...either way I don't think this is an issue.

Moss being in for the hail mary, yeah thats dumb.

Quote

11-23-2009 , 03:13 PM

#297

Kneel B4 Zod

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 27,952

Quote:

Originally Posted by capone0

They haven't been a top 5 D since big Jenkins went down a couple of weeks ago. Obviously still good but they have lost some of their edge.

since losing Jenkins they have played 2 games. 1 vs Jax, 1 vs Pats. I'm not sure you can really rank just their last 2 games. they have lost Jenkins but were without Pace for 4 games..so...I dunno I think if you are gonna knock them down the rankings they probably only go down a few slots, say #6 to #9 or something

I think we normally overrate how big of a loss these things are, unless it's a QB loss. very good units like the Jets D routinely just march on.