Didn't know that rule myself - just wiki'd it - and it's very interesting. So we make 'em run it or kneel it three times and force 'em to punt out of their end zone. If they're stupid enough to kick it in bounds, we get a good shot at a 60-yard FG? Seems like a no-lose situation to me.
We would have lost our three timeouts heading into halftime.. Chili is not a fan of that, he likes to take them to the locker room so they can play with the second half timeouts
Didn't know that rule myself - just wiki'd it - and it's very interesting. So we make 'em run it or kneel it three times and force 'em to punt out of their end zone. If they're stupid enough to kick it in bounds, we get a good shot at a 60-yard FG? Seems like a no-lose situation to me.
Didn't know that rule myself - just wiki'd it - and it's very interesting. So we make 'em run it or kneel it three times and force 'em to punt out of their end zone. If they're stupid enough to kick it in bounds, we get a good shot at a 60-yard FG? Seems like a no-lose situation to me.
FGs of that length are more likely to get blocked, so its not necessarily zero risk, but its still plenty low, so its something they should have tried. Of course Chilly never would have thought of it. Also you could return the FG if its short. Still its something we should have tried.
if they are punting from the 2 yd line there's a good chance it's less than 60 yds. and it's not going to be blocked when they have to be 10 yds downfield.
For fair catch kicks the defenders are 10 yards down field before the kick, which makes blocking rather difficult.
Yeah I wasn't paying attention. I guess returning a short kick for a TD is the only worry.
What kind of EV do we think Chilly gave up here? Imo it is pretty small (maybe .2 points?) but still positive.
Also, reports that EJ may be able to run again in 8-12 weeks = wtf super awesome shocking. I was thinking he wouldn't be able to walk 4 months from now.
i think it's probably higher than .2, i'd guess like .8. i mean it's a freeroll so why not. other **** that can happen besides the free kick FG are blocked punts, safeties and turnovers. (or 98 yd TDs for them, i guess). and we were behind double digits so why not?
edit: the main reason i think it's higher than .2 is that the only way AZ can really avoid having the vikings get a decent FG attempt is A) kicking the ball over 50 yds w/ heavy pressure. B) kicking the ball OB farther than about 35 yds w/ heavy pressure C)running plays and getting 5 or 6 yds
and none of those are going to be real easy for AZ to be successful at
There was only 14 seconds left. A punt going out of bounds is going to take 5+ seconds when you include the snap. That means they only had to average 3 seconds per play or so to run the clock out which isn't all that hard. Plus sometimes they get a 1st down.
yeah but they already ran one play that took 1 sec. so if the vikings called TO it would be 2nd down w/13 sec left. which means they have to kill like 8 sec in two plays, which is hard if you want a zero % chance of a safety.
regardless of the exact EV, it's a 100% certainty that the expecation of trying it is positive. so they absolutely did leave points on the table.
not that i blame chilly for this - i didn't even know the rule. 99% of coaches do the same thing he did and i can't expect him to be smart enough to figure it out at that instant. but in hindsight, lippy is right that they definitely should have tried it.
yeah but they already ran one play that took 1 sec. so if the vikings called TO it would be 2nd down w/13 sec left. which means they have to kill like 8 sec in two plays, which is hard if you want a zero % chance of a safety.
regardless of the exact EV, it's a 100% certainty that the expecation of trying it is positive. so they absolutely did leave points on the table.
not that i blame chilly for this - i didn't even know the rule. 99% of coaches do the same thing he did and i can't expect him to be smart enough to figure it out at that instant. but in hindsight, lippy is right that they definitely should have tried it.
Are you factoring in the time when Arizona decides to go PA and bombs it deep to Fitz? The timeouts wouldn't even matter if they did that. They'd be taking plenty of time off the clock with a deep pass.
Are you factoring in the time when Arizona decides to go PA and bombs it deep to Fitz? The timeouts wouldn't even matter if they did that. They'd be taking plenty of time off the clock with a deep pass.
i don't think they'd do that, even if its the highest EV play.
that play has a positive EV for the vikes too though, i think. a safety or INT is more likely than a 98 yd TD, i'd guess...even with fitzgerald/boldin.
but i'm betting on the cards being tremendously risk averse and just kneeling and punting, even if it's worse.
Ya I came here to post this as well. I'd be happier knowing the Vikes oline was getting blown up on run plays because of a tell than because of larger problems that are hard to fix.
Brinkley & Sanford appear to be the starters this week. Cincy has been pretty one dimensional this year (run only). I think we'll be ok this week. fingers crossed
Cincy has been one dimensional because Marvin Lewis is a ****ing idiot who runs the ball 50 times a game eventhough if he were to pass he would have easily covered a bunch of games. He makes the Vikings playcalling looking inspired and original.
Cincy has been one dimensional because Marvin Lewis is a ****ing idiot who runs the ball 50 times a game eventhough if he were to pass he would have easily covered a bunch of games. He makes the Vikings playcalling looking inspired and original.
