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01-17-2013 , 07:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BillNye
What is a starting CB and OG going to do when we don't have a great HC and we don't have a good QB?

We have had 6 seasons of HoF RB play maybe the GOAT. Had Allen put up 20+ sacks and save for Favre's amazing year it's yielded 0 playoff wins. Without a QB "guaranteed starters" at other positions don't matter. There's 2 positions that could give us real hope at winning the superbowl and they're HC and QB.
yep. pretty sure it'd be a good move to trade our entire roster for rodgers or luck if that was possible.
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01-17-2013 , 11:47 PM
As bad as Ponder is, our need at other positions is actually higher.

Namely WR, OG, and a cover LB.

Ponder showed some signs of being serviceable this year. Those other positions showed none.
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01-18-2013 , 12:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NLSoldier


saying this years class has ponder ceiling b4 seeing any of them take an NFL snap is absurd. im sure plenty of people said that about guys like wilson and kaepernick too.
this
Quote:
Originally Posted by Schwatt
As bad as Ponder is, our need at other positions is actually higher.

Namely WR, OG, and a cover LB.

Ponder showed some signs of being serviceable this year. Those other positions showed none.
QB is like a million times more important than those positions though, having a mediocre/bad QB is way more detrimental to to the team and title equity than having some mediocre/bad WR, OG or LBs...Ponder is awful, this team has no real shot at a SB as long as keeps playing like he has
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01-18-2013 , 12:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Schwatt
As bad as Ponder is, our need at other positions is actually higher.

Namely WR, OG, and a cover LB.

Ponder showed some signs of being serviceable this year. Those other positions showed none.
wat. you just don't get it. the worst OG, LB, and WR in the league can all be covered up by a great QB. whereas no amount of other great players can make up for an awful QB. if you don't have a good QB, other positions are basically irrelevant.

the super bowl equity equation goes "do you have a good to great QB?" if "yes" move onto...HC, pass rush, WRs, oline, etc. If "No" your equity = ~0. You can stop calculating right there, until you get that QB.
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01-18-2013 , 12:29 AM
I do get it.

There is no QB this year to get remotely excited about IMO.

I can't remember a draft ever where most pundits didn't have any QB in the top 25.

I don't want another high drafted QB unless he is nearly assured of beating out Ponder.

All of the guys this year are on his same level.
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01-18-2013 , 12:57 AM
I mean if at any point, a QB on their board is close to BPA, then yea go ahead and take a shot.

But blindly drafting QB's like some of you want to is ******ed. You still need value at the draft spot. When we blindly drafted for need, that's how we got Ponder in the first place.

Look at Spielman's 1st rounders since he's been here:

Ponder
ADP
Harvin
Kalil
Smith

One of these things is not like the other. The other 4 picks were outstanding, elite in fact. That is what happens when you draft solely on need.
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01-18-2013 , 01:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Schwatt
As bad as Ponder is, our need at other positions is actually higher.

Namely WR, OG, and a cover LB.

Ponder showed some signs of being serviceable this year. Those other positions showed none.
Our guards played fine this year. Way better than our QB.

Quote:
Originally Posted by NLSoldier
wat. you just don't get it. the worst OG, LB, and WR in the league can all be covered up by a great QB. whereas no amount of other great players can make up for an awful QB. if you don't have a good QB, other positions are basically irrelevant.

the super bowl equity equation goes "do you have a good to great QB?" if "yes" move onto...HC, pass rush, WRs, oline, etc. If "No" your equity = ~0. You can stop calculating right there, until you get that QB.
Obviously we'd like to get a better QB.
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01-18-2013 , 01:47 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JayTeeMe
Our guards played fine this year.
WAT. They were pretty terrible by most people's standards. (PFF anyone?)

Here's the thing. Assuming we resign Loadholt, we could draft an elite OG prospect in round 1 or 2, and have potentially the best OL in the entire NFL. (and 4/5 of them would be locked up for the next 4 years )

The same could be argued of our d-line if we hit on a DT.

That's pretty awesome, and of waaay higher likelihood than finding a Russell Wilson or Kaepernick. Both of which I'm not convinced are franchise type QB's yet anyway. They had 1 season, and 9 games respectively. Wait to see what happens when teams can gameplan for them, and find weaknesses. Hell, there are a lot of Cinci fans who want Andy Dalton out of town, they think hes crap, and a product of AJ Green.

How many teams would have traded their QB for Cam Newton after last year?
How about this year?

Last edited by Schwatt; 01-18-2013 at 01:56 AM.
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01-18-2013 , 02:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NLSoldier
wat. you just don't get it. the worst OG, LB, and WR in the league can all be covered up by a great QB. whereas no amount of other great players can make up for an awful QB. if you don't have a good QB, other positions are basically irrelevant.

the super bowl equity equation goes "do you have a good to great QB?" if "yes" move onto...HC, pass rush, WRs, oline, etc. If "No" your equity = ~0. You can stop calculating right there, until you get that QB.
Tell that to the Seahawks, 49ers and Ravens. QBs are really important, but I do we really have a better option than Ponder, unless we want to spend a lot on Flacco/Alex Smith. Do you really want to draft Mike Glennon so we can have this exact conversation in three years. Ponder was been above replacement level and below average in his first full season as a starter and had the worst WRs in the league for the second half of the season. I'd rather wait to see what he can do while he is still on his rookie contract than sign/draft/trade for a similar asset.
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01-18-2013 , 02:06 AM
Those teams all have QBs far, far better than Christian Ponder tho.
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01-18-2013 , 02:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JayTeeMe
Those teams all have QBs far, far better than Christian Ponder tho.
That's the point.

There is nobody far, far, better than Ponder in this year's draft.

I don't want to play lotto with potential stud picks in round 1 and 2.

1st round Interior OL has a 0% bust rate from data between 2002 and 2009

http://www.swoopsnest.net/1/post/201...iskreward.html

Last edited by Schwatt; 01-18-2013 at 02:24 AM.
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01-18-2013 , 02:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Schwatt
I mean if at any point, a QB on their board is close to BPA, then yea go ahead and take a shot.

But blindly drafting QB's like some of you want to is ******ed. You still need value at the draft spot. When we blindly drafted for need, that's how we got Ponder in the first place.

Look at Spielman's 1st rounders since he's been here:

Ponder
ADP
Harvin
Kalil
Smith

One of these things is not like the other. The other 4 picks were outstanding, elite in fact. That is what happens when you draft solely on need.
whew for a second there i thought the bolded was referring to "the other 4 picks" and had a good LOL. im assuming bolded was meant to refer to ponder.

id say we got fairly lucky on those other 4 in that the BPA happened to fill a huge need for us but thats kinda beside the point.

i realize there are no can't miss QBs in this draft class (yet-these perceptions can change between now and the draft) but that doesn't mean they are all guaranteed miss.

and if we really hate the draft class then we can go after a guy like flynn or even smith or vick (gross but prob > ponder).

i really wouldn't be mad at all if we spent like 5 picks on 5 different QBs though. (obv realize this would never actually happen) compared to QB our other needs don't really matter. and our 2nd biggest need is prob WR which this class looks weak for as well...
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01-18-2013 , 02:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NLSoldier
whew for a second there i thought the bolded was referring to "the other 4 picks" and had a good LOL. im assuming bolded was meant to refer to ponder.

Yea, 3rd sentence should be 2nd one. Train of thought typing..

id say we got fairly lucky on those other 4 in that the BPA happened to fill a huge need for us but thats kinda beside the point.

I disagree. ADP wasn't a need at all. Taylor was just coming off a 1216 yard season.

Harvin wasn't a huge need either. We had just signed Berrian to a huge deal, and we had high hopes for Rice.


i realize there are no can't miss QBs in this draft class (yet-these perceptions can change between now and the draft) but that doesn't mean they are all guaranteed miss.

and if we really hate the draft class then we can go after a guy like flynn or even smith or vick (gross but prob > ponder).

I agree. I absolutely want them to see what Flynn or Smith would cost. Best case for me is they get Smith at a reasonable price, and draft another guy in round 3+ to compete with MBT.
.
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01-18-2013 , 11:14 AM
Jets had a decent roster besides QB too and they spent 4 yrs trying to fill in the gaps while ignoring the 1 spot they really needed an upgrade to.
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01-18-2013 , 06:08 PM
If you are comparing our FO to the Jets front office I'm not even going to bother responding.
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01-18-2013 , 06:13 PM
I'm more comparing Ponder to Sanchez. Ponder arguably earned his job w/ his play the final 4 games (specifically the Packers game). Just hope we're able to move on if he doesn't show big improvement next season.
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01-18-2013 , 06:15 PM
I think the issue here is we have never been looking for QB's in the 2-4 round range, which is where you normally find backups who can develop into decent starters.

In the last 18 years, we have only take 3 QB's before round 5.

Ponder
TJack
Culpepper

Like I said before, If at any point a QB is close to BPA, go ahead and take a shot. But blindly drafting QB's just to have warm bodies, when that pick could be used for a near guaranteed starter at another position in round 1-3, is stupid.
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01-18-2013 , 06:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BillNye
I'm more comparing Ponder to Sanchez. Ponder arguably earned his job w/ his play the final 4 games (specifically the Packers game). Just hope we're able to move on if he doesn't show big improvement next season.
I think next year is make or break, especially if we get some more WR's in here. That's been the main argument for Ponder backers. He has no downfield threat. Bring in a FA, and draft one in round 1-2 and we will see for sure what the real issue is.

Either he will "get it", and turn into a consistently serviceable QB, or he's done. He's never gonna be elite, but until something better comes along, we roll with what we got.
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01-18-2013 , 06:35 PM
I just hope we do something, anything to get something better and/or a legitimate backup plan for when/if Ponder shows that he sucks even with good WRs.

Putting all our eggs in the TJack basket was beyond stupid. That team was painful to watch. I don't ever want to have to see that crap again.

This past season was sort of like that, and it could have been avoided somewhat if we had hung onto Sage.

I hope we bring someone in better than Ponder to start or at least challenge him for the job, but that seems doubtful now. At the very least we better have a better 2nd string QB than Webb. The status quo at QB would be a disaster imo.
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01-18-2013 , 06:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Schwatt
I think the issue here is we have never been looking for QB's in the 2-4 round range, which is where you normally find backups who can develop into decent starters.

In the last 18 years, we have only take 3 QB's before round 5.

Ponder
TJack
Culpepper

Like I said before, If at any point a QB is close to BPA, go ahead and take a shot. But blindly drafting QB's just to have warm bodies, when that pick could be used for a near guaranteed starter at another position in round 1-3, is stupid.
THANK. YOU.
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01-18-2013 , 07:01 PM
Obviously we don't need to take a 1st or 2nd round QB. I just hope we don't cross our fingers and say "Ponder is our starter, here goes nothing."
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01-18-2013 , 08:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BillNye
Obviously we don't need to take a 1st or 2nd round QB. I just hope we don't cross our fingers and say "Ponder is our starter, here goes nothing."
97.6%-99.1% chance this happens
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01-18-2013 , 09:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BillNye
Drafting a QB would be awesome. Take QB in round 1 and 2 and u have 3 guys that can compete for the job.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BillNye
Obviously we don't need to take a 1st or 2nd round QB. I just hope we don't cross our fingers and say "Ponder is our starter, here goes nothing."

Last edited by Schwatt; 01-18-2013 at 09:36 PM. Reason: edit: great pooh bah post :(
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01-18-2013 , 10:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Halstad
97.6%-99.1% chance this happens
Ponder is the starter next year period. Will they sign a veteran QB as backup?Yes. One of the MIA QB's will be an option. MBT will be given every opportunity to develop as well.
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01-19-2013 , 06:51 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BillNye
Jets had a decent roster besides QB too and they spent 4 yrs trying to fill in the gaps while ignoring the 1 spot they really needed an upgrade to.
They were hoping that their highly drafted QB developed. He didn't. Luckily for us, Ponder is so much worse than Sanchez was we can easily pull the plug now.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BillNye
I'm more comparing Ponder to Sanchez. Ponder arguably earned his job w/ his play the final 4 games (specifically the Packers game). Just hope we're able to move on if he doesn't show big improvement next season.
Chi: 11-17 91y 0TD-1INT
StL: 17-24 131 0-0
Hou: 16-30 174 1-0
GB: 16-28 234 3-0

Those are his supposed GOOD games! While having a RB go absolutely crazy. You guys realize that his great game was a 234 yard game?? The legend of Ponder has grown after seeing how awful Webb was. Seriously would rather have 44 year old Favre next year.
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