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Old 09-04-2007, 09:42 PM   #151
NajdorfDefense
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Re: *** Official Michigan Football 2007 Thread ***

Quote:
also, I'm the one who has to eat alot of crow as I was saying the Big11Ten, SEC, Pac-10 have never had a team lose when favored by that much and that the probability of them winning should just be rounded to 1.00 when doing evaluations of season W-L totals.

I need a good recipe for crow
Yes, yes you do.
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Old 09-04-2007, 11:06 PM   #152
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Re: *** Official Michigan Football 2007 Thread ***

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at least you can say you're number 27.
FYP
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Old 09-04-2007, 11:51 PM   #153
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Re: *** Official Michigan Football 2007 Thread ***

Lot of people didn't get to see this game obviously because it was on the Big10 Network.

Just posting to say that the replay was evidently picked up by some FSN affiliates. They're showing it right now in Florida. You may want to watch for it.

Thom Brennaman did the play-by-play for this game.
What a thrill for him to call perhaps the two most exciting college-football upsets of the decade or possibly all-time since he also got to do Boise St/Oklahoma.

I'm going to be interested in hearing Thom's call at the end. Didn't particularly care for the insane screaming of the Appy St. announcers that was played over and over on the various networks.
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Old 09-05-2007, 12:02 AM   #154
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Re: *** Official Michigan Football 2007 Thread ***

Would Michigan consider interviewing Boise's Chris Peterson?
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Old 09-05-2007, 12:31 AM   #155
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Re: *** Official Michigan Football 2007 Thread ***

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Would Michigan consider interviewing Boise's Chris Peterson?
Hopefully Bill Martin is compiling a list of candidates right now.
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Old 09-05-2007, 12:37 AM   #156
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Re: *** Official Michigan Football 2007 Thread ***

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Lot of people didn't get to see this game obviously because it was on the Big10 Network.
In State College, this was not true.
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Old 09-05-2007, 01:43 AM   #157
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Re: *** Official Michigan Football 2007 Thread ***

Jeff Tedford or Steve Sarkisian would be ideal, but I doubt Sarkisian would leave since he turned down the Raiders job and is probably in line to succeed Carroll.
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Old 09-05-2007, 02:44 AM   #158
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Re: *** Official Michigan Football 2007 Thread ***

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Quote:
Lot of people didn't get to see this game obviously because it was on the Big10 Network.
In State College, this was not true.
Sadly it was. [censored] you Comcast.

(Though I'm assuming you're referring to everyone who saw it as they were coming out of the stadium.)
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Old 09-05-2007, 02:54 AM   #159
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Re: *** Official Michigan Football 2007 Thread ***

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Jeff Tedford or Steve Sarkisian would be ideal, but I doubt Sarkisian would leave since he turned down the Raiders job and is probably in line to succeed Carroll.
I wouldn't read to much into turning down the Raiders.
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Old 09-05-2007, 11:14 AM   #160
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Re: *** Official Michigan Football 2007 Thread ***

it's just really [censored] embarrassing.

whatever...we can still win the big 10.

if we lose early on in the big 10 tho, i will be very demoralized.
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Old 09-05-2007, 12:32 PM   #161
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Re: *** Official Michigan Football 2007 Thread ***

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1. Everybody knows Michigan is not nearly as bad as they showed yesterday and the the vast majority of the time they would win.
O'rly?

Quote:

2. Holy God our defense needs some serious help.

You can't teach speed, you can only recruit it. Div 1AA wr's outrunning entire um secondary is obv. not a good sign.


Quote:

4. Here is where we stand on all of our preseason goals:

-Undefeated: Uh, nope.
-National Title: Only if Michigan somehow destroys everyone in sight by 50 and any other team with any kind of claim whatsoever to a BCS bowl loses like 3 games. Appy State blitzing the Montana School for Blind Women and all the other teams they play by 2309834 each game would kind of help maybe a little bit too but probably not.

LOLLLLLZZZZZ.

I was befuddled why anyone was saying the words michigan and national championship in the same sentence before the season started, and now this.


Btw, this was a bigger upset than Chaminade over Virginia, as ASU did it on the road while Chaminade had home court advantage.

Also, lol at that hack in the Tennessee who voted michigan 16th in the AP Poll. This is just further proof that the AP Poll is a complete joke. It's right up there with the Berryman Poll.
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Old 09-05-2007, 01:04 PM   #162
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Re: *** Official Michigan Football 2007 Thread ***

Quote:
Quote:

1. Everybody knows Michigan is not nearly as bad as they showed yesterday and the the vast majority of the time they would win.
O'rly?

Quote:

2. Holy God our defense needs some serious help.

You can't teach speed, you can only recruit it. Div 1AA wr's outrunning entire um secondary is obv. not a good sign.


Quote:

4. Here is where we stand on all of our preseason goals:

-Undefeated: Uh, nope.
-National Title: Only if Michigan somehow destroys everyone in sight by 50 and any other team with any kind of claim whatsoever to a BCS bowl loses like 3 games. Appy State blitzing the Montana School for Blind Women and all the other teams they play by 2309834 each game would kind of help maybe a little bit too but probably not.

LOLLLLLZZZZZ.

I was befuddled why anyone was saying the words michigan and national championship in the same sentence before the season started, and now this.


Btw, this was a bigger upset than Chaminade over Virginia, as ASU did it on the road while Chaminade had home court advantage.

Also, lol at that hack in the Tennessee who voted michigan 16th in the AP Poll. This is just further proof that the AP Poll is a complete joke. It's right up there with the Berryman Poll.
Dude, you are not smart. You really think Michigan does not win that game the majority of the time? They played AWFUL and it took a bunch of horrible miscues to lose. Appy State is good, but they're not regularly-beat-Michigan good.

Secondary is obv a problem, but it's not like they put up hundreds and hundreds of yards passing against us. Still pathetic, but acting like they're some world beater that would toss Michigan's salad through the air every week is laughable.

As far as my paragraph on Michigan's NC hopes, I thought it was pretty damn clear that it's not going to happen. Michigan winning every game by 50 and every other BCS school and good mid-major losing 2-3+ is obviously not going to happen, dumbass. Notice how you're the only one in the entire thread who took that paragraph as me seriously thinking Michigan still had national title chances?
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Old 09-05-2007, 02:29 PM   #163
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Re: *** Official Michigan Football 2007 Thread ***

FWIW if we were any good, we would have held them off with 1:30 left in the game.

i don't even think the game looked like a huge fluke. we got picked apart in the first half.
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Old 09-05-2007, 03:16 PM   #164
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Re: *** Official Michigan Football 2007 Thread ***

Ok, Mike Hart gets injured for two quarters, two blocked field goals, two failed two-point converstions, etc., etc. I'm not saying Michigan kills them over and over and over again but do you really think Appy State wins anywhere close to the majority of the time? Come on, it took the game of their lives plus a ridiculous number of blunders by Michigan and the game was won by 2. It was such a pathetic showing precisely because the difference in the teams is so great.
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Old 09-05-2007, 04:07 PM   #165
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Re: *** Official Michigan Football 2007 Thread ***

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Ok, Mike Hart gets injured for two quarters, two blocked field goals, two failed two-point converstions, etc., etc. I'm not saying Michigan kills them over and over and over again but do you really think Appy State wins anywhere close to the majority of the time? Come on, it took the game of their lives plus a ridiculous number of blunders by Michigan and the game was won by 2. It was such a pathetic showing precisely because the difference in the teams is so great.
I think this much is very obvious. Anyone who does not think that Michigan wins this match up an overwhelming majority of the time forfeits their right to call this an upset, much less a huge upset.

Noze: at least you got dem Tigers pretty close by to root for now!
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Old 09-05-2007, 04:22 PM   #166
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Re: *** Official Michigan Football 2007 Thread ***

too bad the tigers suck now.
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Old 09-05-2007, 04:23 PM   #167
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Re: *** Official Michigan Football 2007 Thread ***

ESPN's Bottom 10
featuring the Wolverines and the Golden Domers
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Old 09-05-2007, 06:06 PM   #168
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Re: *** Official Michigan Football 2007 Thread ***

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too bad the tigers suck now.
Did I miss something in the news? Why would we (LSU) suck?
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Old 09-05-2007, 06:38 PM   #169
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Re: *** Official Michigan Football 2007 Thread ***

If Michigan somehow were to get their act together after this I actually think it wouldn't be completely impossible for them to contend for the national championship.

Appy St went 14-1 and finished 53rd in the Sagarin ratings last year.
Right behind Iowa and Southern Miss.
Isn't that similar to what they use for the BCS calcs or do games against 1-AA or FCS or whatever it is just all count the same or something.

If losing to Appy St counts as a loss to a 50th ranked team then Michigan could finish ahead of some other 1 loss teams conceiveably.

That's not going to happen obviously because Michigan's morale is in the cellar and i don't think they are good enough to win out anyway.
The loss to a 53rd ranked Appy St team obviously looks worse to the eyes of the voters than a loss to a 55th ranked Alabama or something.

But just looking at how this particular loss will effect their computer ranking at the end of the season I think it's possible that it doesn't completely kill them.
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Old 09-05-2007, 07:45 PM   #170
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Re: *** Official Michigan Football 2007 Thread ***

a team that lost to App St isn't going to go undefeated v Oregon, v Penn St, @ Illinois, @ Wisconsin, v Ohio St with @ MSU, v Purdue, v Notre Dame

Just too many tough games left IMO for a team that doesn't have clear and away better talent

They might be favored in all or all but one, but they just won't win them all
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Old 09-05-2007, 07:51 PM   #171
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Re: *** Official Michigan Football 2007 Thread ***

mt2r: who do you think will coach less bad in the Illinois-Michigan game: Carr or Zook?
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Old 09-05-2007, 07:56 PM   #172
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Re: *** Official Michigan Football 2007 Thread ***

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Ok, Mike Hart gets injured for two quarters, two blocked field goals, two failed two-point converstions, etc., etc. I'm not saying Michigan kills them over and over and over again but do you really think Appy State wins anywhere close to the majority of the time? Come on, it took the game of their lives plus a ridiculous number of blunders by Michigan and the game was won by 2. It was such a pathetic showing precisely because the difference in the teams is so great.
Here's the thing: I'm not saying App. State wins that game a majority of the time. But despite the fact Michigan had a bunch of blunders, so did App State.

Let's not forget that App State turned the ball over more than Michigan; let's not forget that App State's coach COMPLETELY mismanaged the clock at the end of the game (30 seconds left, Appalachian State has the ball on the 5 yard line, and it's first down. Michigan understandably calls timeout, and instead of doing the obvious thing -- taking a knee in the middle of the field, spiking the ball with less than 10 seconds left, THEN attemping the FG -- App. State's coach decides to give us another chance to win by kicking the FG with 30 seconds left). Let's not forget that a wide open App St WR, Brian Quick, dropped a perfectly thrown ball that hit him in the hands in stride in the end-zone that would have put App St. up 35-20 late in the 3rd quarter. Let's not forget Michigan had almost 250 rushing yards. Let's not forget that penalties were nearly indistinguishable (App St. 7 penalties for 45 yards, UM 7 penalties for 56 yards). Let's not forget that the referees, after review, overturned a VERY questionable Johnny Sears fumble call which both commentators working the game (Brennaman and Charles Davis) speculated the refs might have actually gotten wrong, even after the review.

The "Michigan made a bunch of terrible blunders, and App State played perfect" is an appealing narrative, but completely contradicted by the fact that Applachian State made almost as many, if not more, mistakes as we did, and really didn't have any bounces go their way. In fact, if anything, Michigan had a bunch of lucky breaks (refs overturning questionable call, almost benefited from App State awful clock management).

I'm not saying App State wins this game a majority of the time or close to it, but let's not pretend Michigan was the victim of awful variance, or App State played flawlessly. There weren't any tipped ball INTs, it wasn't a soaked field that slowed everyone down and caused Michigan to fumble away 3 snaps, the refs didn't make 15 terrible calls, and frankly, App State probably made 5 or 10 very avoidable mistakes.

Michigan did its Michigan thing: they ran their 3 offensive plays, never figured out how to cover more than 3 WRs at a time, and more or less ignored preparing themselves on special teams. And App State exploited us by doing obvious things like spreading 5 wide, double covering the TE on transparent bootlegs, and trying to block FGs.

It didn't require any special act of God, nor some divinely inspired play on behalf of our opponents. Pretty much App State's coach had access to a TV, a VHS player, and tapes of last year's games against Ohio St and USC. That's about all anyone needs to beat us. That's about all anyone's ever needed to beat us. We're just fortunate the rest of the Big Ten is as stubborn and backwards as we are, or else we'd surely have experienced many more games like last Saturday.
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Old 09-05-2007, 08:12 PM   #173
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Re: *** Official Michigan Football 2007 Thread ***

As all Michigan fans know, we are extremely predictable. Brian at mgoblog, broke down the game. Among his findings:

"Whenever Michigan shuffled the fullback they ran to that side. Without exception. And whenever Junior Hemingway was in the game, they ran. Without exception. If every Michigan fan can tell you certain things obviously tip Michigan's plays, what are the chances opposing coaches don't know this? Zero. Everyone knows what Michigan is going to do. This is something we've heard every time a bowl opponent is asked about us for the past half-decade and probably longer. It's an arrogant waste of expectation because you expect that you won't need to fool the other team. It's like playing poker without ever bluffing.

Given Appalachian State's blitz directly into Henne both times we tried a waggle and irresponsible seven-man blitzes that worked, it's safe to say that Michigan's predictability goes beyond the really blindingly obvious crap we've been observing for years and into the realm of deep exploitability."
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Old 09-05-2007, 08:17 PM   #174
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Re: *** Official Michigan Football 2007 Thread ***

The thing is, I fully expect Appy State to make errors like those (minus the coaching mismanaging the clock thing, awful) against teams like Michigan. The players simply aren't objectively as good. For every open drop they had that game, they had huge plays that wouldn't likely happen again. I still think they hit the extreme upside of variance in their performance and would be lucky to replicate anything close to it.
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Old 09-05-2007, 08:22 PM   #175
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Re: *** Official Michigan Football 2007 Thread ***

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Given Appalachian State's blitz directly into Henne both times we tried a waggle and irresponsible seven-man blitzes that worked, it's safe to say that Michigan's predictability goes beyond the really blindingly obvious crap we've been observing for years and into the realm of deep exploitability."
Henne threw just about the worst pass in the history of the forward pass on that waggle --> INT in the 4th quarter, but lost in all the justified Henne bashing is the fact that the waggle hadn't worked all day because App State obviously knew it was coming, and YET we still tried running it about 3 more times after it was obvious that App State knew it was coming and could successfully defend it. It's sickening how predictable we are; and yet the coaching staff is oblivious/ambivalent to how exploitable we are.
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