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Old 09-02-2007, 04:00 PM   #101
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Re: *** Official Michigan Football 2007 Thread ***

line was somewhere between 37 and 40 from what I've gathered

biggest upset according to spreads

Temple over V Tech with Vick and some Central Michigan/Western Michigan game a few years ago are the only ones that come close
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Old 09-02-2007, 04:07 PM   #102
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Re: *** Official Michigan Football 2007 Thread ***

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The money line is what matters, not the spread...
I would love to here this line as it accurately represents what the spread really is.

My guess: UM -850
APP St +650
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Old 09-02-2007, 04:10 PM   #103
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Re: *** Official Michigan Football 2007 Thread ***

I haven't really read this thread since I was at UNC watching my I-AA school get thrashed yesterday, but I went to Boone to see my school (JMU) play app state last year. App State (or CRAP state as we called them then) is actually a really good team. They are well balanced and Edwards is super underrated IMO.

App State put a tough loss on us last year, but I was really excited to see them beat Michigan... as a I-AA football fan.
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Old 09-02-2007, 04:41 PM   #104
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Re: *** Official Michigan Football 2007 Thread ***

Quote:
Quote:
The money line is what matters, not the spread...
I would love to here this line as it accurately represents what the spread really is.

My guess: UM -850
APP St +650

it wouldn't be anywhere close to that

coming into last season, I believe it was 2 of 250 games with 26 point + favorites lost

For instance, Arkansas was 23.5 point favorites over Troy and were -2500 on the moneyline
Nebraska -21.5 v Nevada was -2100
V Tech -27.5 v E Carolina was -6000
W Va -23 v W Mich was -3600

Michigan would've been higher than all of those.

I believe I saw the spread as over 30 with my own eyes under 5dimes college xtra
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Old 09-02-2007, 04:49 PM   #105
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Re: *** Official Michigan Football 2007 Thread ***

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I haven't really read this thread since I was at UNC watching my I-AA school get thrashed yesterday, but I went to Boone to see my school (JMU) play app state last year. App State (or CRAP state as we called them then) is actually a really good team. They are well balanced and Edwards is super underrated IMO.

App State put a tough loss on us last year, but I was really excited to see them beat Michigan... as a I-AA football fan.
That's kind of my thing too. I read quite a few articles that said that Appy State would easily contend in a bunch of the mid-major conferences, which would still be a big upset if they were in a mid-major, but since they are classified as I-AA, it seems even bigger. Which blows. Oh well.
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Old 09-02-2007, 05:14 PM   #106
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Re: *** Official Michigan Football 2007 Thread ***

My bad. I forgot to put a 0 on the end of those lines.....

Much difference?
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Old 09-02-2007, 05:25 PM   #107
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Re: *** Official Michigan Football 2007 Thread ***

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Quote:
I haven't really read this thread since I was at UNC watching my I-AA school get thrashed yesterday, but I went to Boone to see my school (JMU) play app state last year. App State (or CRAP state as we called them then) is actually a really good team. They are well balanced and Edwards is super underrated IMO.

App State put a tough loss on us last year, but I was really excited to see them beat Michigan... as a I-AA football fan.
That's kind of my thing too. I read quite a few articles that said that Appy State would easily contend in a bunch of the mid-major conferences, which would still be a big upset if they were in a mid-major, but since they are classified as I-AA, it seems even bigger. Which blows. Oh well.
i think Ball State almost beat Michigan last year. i have to agree that their classification as a double A and the fact that it is the 1st game of the season as the two things making this seem so improbable.

Sure it's absolutely huge (and i was luckily enough to have watched it) but lets give App state some credit for being a decent team.

Oh, and as a diehard OSU bucks fan i still have a huge smile on my face.

Absolutely hilarious!
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Old 09-02-2007, 05:27 PM   #108
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Re: *** Official Michigan Football 2007 Thread ***

Quote:
line was somewhere between 37 and 40 from what I've gathered

biggest upset according to spreads

Temple over V Tech with Vick and some Central Michigan/Western Michigan game a few years ago are the only ones that come close
Not sure which CMU or WMU games you're referring to, but back in the late 80s or early 90s CMU beat Michigan State 20-3, then beat them again the next year.
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Old 09-02-2007, 05:51 PM   #109
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Re: *** Official Michigan Football 2007 Thread ***

no...it was a CMU v WMU game in 2000

West Mich was 35.5 point favorites and lost 21-17

biggest upset in my database of games spread wise

The power index I trust most (Phil Steele) had Michigan 38 points better and had the worst Big11Ten team double digits over APP St on a nuetral field
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Old 09-02-2007, 06:44 PM   #110
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Re: *** Official Michigan Football 2007 Thread ***

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The power index I trust most (Phil Steele) had Michigan 38 points better and had the worst Big11Ten team double digits over APP St on a nuetral field
Really? Interesting, Sagarin only had it as a 22 point difference on a neutral field.
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Old 09-02-2007, 06:57 PM   #111
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Re: *** Official Michigan Football 2007 Thread ***

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i think Ball State almost beat Michigan last year.
That's what makes this so inexcusable. They almost blew an undefeated season last year to a far, far, far inferior team out of the same lazy arrogance that cost them this game.
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Old 09-03-2007, 12:18 AM   #112
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Re: *** Official Michigan Football 2007 Thread ***

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Alright, all the very, very, very much-deserved crap we're taking aside, here are my thoughts for the rest of the season:

Flame away. I think this program will see better days real, real soon. If not, I'll still be here.


that's about where my mindstate is now...the game itself was one of the most gut-wrenching things i've ever had to endure. i was supposed to be painting a house w/my brother and dad, but listening to the game on the radio on the way there, i promised them i would come back tomorrow (today) to do my part, and headed off to a local sports bar to watch ([censored] you, big ten network)..

picture being one of 2 people in a packed, standing-room only bar of people wearing scarlet and gray wearing maize and blue, that's what my buddy and i went through..whatever you (OP) went through down in N.O., trust me, being a michigan fan in northeast ohio was never easy, but getting 7 text messages in 2 minutes is like putting your hand down the garbage disposal.

despair to relief to dispair to relief to 12 hours of sloppy drunkedness..

late night bar-hopping also probably wasn't the best idea in hindsight...i left with 3 $50 bills, and came home with 3 cigarettes. stayed up another hour or so at home w/my girlfriend, and her 2 hot friends, announced i had to pee, went upstairs, and never made it back down. (i had to be told all this today, as i can't remember none of it)

only reason i'm typing now is because sportscenter just showed 'the day after in ann arbor'...just, wow. if this loss was to iowa, or wisconsin, it'd be devastating, but to lose to app. state, it just makes it surreal.

however for me, my problems are not yet over, as i have to go teach on tuesday, and literally 95% of the teachers and students know my affiliations.

again, i just want to say i feel horrible for mike hart and jake long and mario (who i taught, and watched his entire high school career) and a little less so for chad henne. 3 of those 4 could be millionares right now, but came back because of michigan pride, and wanting to beat osu. mike hart has to be sick right now...

anyway, next saturday will come. i'm not buying into the sub-.500 talk i'm reading, though oregon will be tough..

finally, seeing lloyd carr say in an interview last night that the team 'wasn't prepared' was one of the most infuriating things i've ever seen. i'm a high school baseball coach, and that is the FIRST thing you make sure of, that your team is mentally focused and ready, regardless of the fact that we're a division 1 school possibly playing a division 4 school, you just don't let that happen, and if you sense complacency, you figure out a way to change that.

i'm literally sitting here shaking my head thinking about those comments..i can't wrap my head around the thinking involved..he must be ready to go, and while i've been a carr-supporter in the past, his 'big game' record, and saying that he didn't get his team ready in the hours and days before the biggest upset in michigan football history, i can't say that anymore. last year i was ready to annoint ron english, but that was pre osu, usc and this...now, he ought to be polishing his resume...the 'powers that be' probably have too much pride and respect for carr and his staff to chop them 1 game in, but next year i expect to see a big rollover in coaching...

wow.

in a sick sort of way, i'm happy i left painting to watch, as hard as it was. being a cleveland sports fan (all 3 pro teams + michigan), i'm used to these scars, and in a way, am proud of them. seeing and feeling the heartbreak will make the next nail-biter that they pull out all the more better..

keep your heads up, maize and blue, and just be happy that you don't live in ohio, like i do..
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Old 09-03-2007, 01:34 AM   #113
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Re: *** Official Michigan Football 2007 Thread ***

Yeah, I sympathize with all of that easily. I go to Tulane and everyone here knows I love Michigan since not many kids from around there go to school here, so I got a lot of ribbing from people I'm sort of friends with, but none of my real friends said anything since I was so despondent after the OSU game last year. Oh Ryan Mallet and Jeff Tedford or whoever, bring happy years to come pleaseeeeeeee.
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Old 09-03-2007, 06:40 AM   #114
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Re: *** Official Michigan Football 2007 Thread ***

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seeing lloyd carr say in an interview last night that the team 'wasn't prepared' was one of the most infuriating things i've ever seen. i'm a high school baseball coach, and that is the FIRST thing you make sure of, that your team is mentally focused and ready, regardless of the fact that we're a division 1 school possibly playing a division 4 school, you just don't let that happen, and if you sense complacency, you figure out a way to change that.

i'm literally sitting here shaking my head thinking about those comments..i can't wrap my head around the thinking involved..he must be ready to go, and while i've been a carr-supporter in the past, his 'big game' record, and saying that he didn't get his team ready in the hours and days before the biggest upset in michigan football history, i can't say that anymore. last year i was ready to annoint ron english, but that was pre osu, usc and this...now, he ought to be polishing his resume...the 'powers that be' probably have too much pride and respect for carr and his staff to chop them 1 game in, but next year i expect to see a big rollover in coaching...

just be happy that you don't live in ohio, like i do..
I live in northwest Ohio, so at least there are quite a few Michigan alumni here.

After some further thinking and discussion - there are very few coaches in the game today that could have prepared for Appalachian State. Do you think most of the players on the Michigan team would believe the coaches' warnings about how good this opponent was? I suppose some of the blame must sit with the captains as well.
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Old 09-03-2007, 06:58 AM   #115
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Re: *** Official Michigan Football 2007 Thread ***

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The power index I trust most (Phil Steele) had Michigan 38 points better and had the worst Big11Ten team double digits over APP St on a nuetral field
Steele is TERRIBLE on 1-A vs. 1-AA games. Use Sagarin instead. You posted somewhere (I can't find it now) that Sagarin is known to be flawed on inter-division games, but I ran some numbers that suggest you had that backwards.

There were 22 games this week between 1-A and 1-AA teams. If you use Sagarin's ratings as the "true" spread, the 1-A teams went 14-8 against the spread, covering by an average of three points. This indicates that Sagarin has a slight bias toward the 1-AA teams, slightly underestimates the difference between divisions, and leaves the spreads marginally lower than they should be. Overall, though, it's not too bad.

If you use Steele's lines as the "true" spread, however, the 1-AA teams went 21-1, and covered by an average of 21 points. Steele has a HUGE bias toward the 1-A schools and massively overestimates the difference between divisions. He had Louisville 79 points better than Murray State and Alabama 71 points better than Western Carolina, among others. The ONLY 1-A team that actually managed to cover Steele's spread was Indiana who beat Indiana State by 48, as a 47.5 point favorite.

Steele is NOT a good source for comparing division 1-A with 1-AA, while Sagarin is at least in the right ballpark. Sagarin had Michigan as 25 point favorites including home field advantage. Add in the three point bias, and give The Big House two extra points, and it still only deserved to be a 30 point line at most. This wasn't the biggest upset in college football history, thirty point favorites have lost before.

Oh, and as for the other 1-A team that lost to a 1-AA team? Steele had Rice as 36 point favorites, Sagarin had them -16.5.
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Old 09-03-2007, 03:36 PM   #116
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Re: *** Official Michigan Football 2007 Thread ***

Your math is flawed for one huge reason....the big favorites call off the dogs.....L'Ville is 79 points better, but layed off. This would account for the stat difference.

This is the biggest upset in history
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Old 09-03-2007, 03:46 PM   #117
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Re: *** Official Michigan Football 2007 Thread ***

lol @ the App St line holding their own
did you watch the game?
I did

Michigan averaged 6.2 ypr even with Michael Hart sitting out a large portion of the game.
Michigan only allowed one sack in 37 pass attempts.

Meanwhile, App St averaged 3.6 ypr despite having a huge pass attack and successful QB runs. They also allowed 4 sacks to 23 pass attempts.

The lines were pwned.


You had the following take place
-App St exposed the Michigan D's inexperience and faulty scheme which opens up the middle to spread attacks (we saw tO$U and SC blow that middle wide open last year as well)
-Michigan's coach was a moron and started going for 2 in the 3rd quarter in a shootout
-Michael Hart was out for nearly 2 quarters
-Michigan couldn't kick FGs
-Lloyd Carr's crappy play-calling
---Didn't threaten deep enough...see how easy it was for Manningham when they threw it up for grabs late...how is Manningham only getting 3 catches?
---terrible 2-point conv and fourth down plays (0 for 4)
-Terrible accuracy by Chad Henne (4th year starter????--lollerskates)
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Old 09-03-2007, 04:39 PM   #118
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Re: *** Official Michigan Football 2007 Thread ***

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Your math is flawed for one huge reason....the big favorites call off the dogs.....L'Ville is 79 points better, but layed off. This would account for the stat difference.

This is the biggest upset in history
And the big favorites don't call off the dogs against bad 1-A opponents too? Personally I would prefer the ranking system that actually predicts results over the one that says how much better a team hypothetically is. I'm not trying to use my numbers as evidence of how good Appalachian State is or isn't, I'm staying out of that argument. What I am looking at is the question of what a fair spread would have been, in order to determine how big of an upset this really was. If 1-A teams CONSISTENTLY "call of the dogs" to the tune of underperforming their "true" edge by an average of 21 points, then that should be factored into the line. I have no doubt the talent gap is large enough that Michigan could have won by 41 on average if they played their best for all four quarters, but in any normal version of this matchup they would reign it in, and not end up winning by that much. Therefore 38-40 would not have been a reasonable spread, since the margin would be less than that well more than 50% of the time. 30-32 is the highest spread that I think would have been reasonable for this game, and since that is less than the 35.5 that has happened in the past, I think there is a decent argument to be made that it isn't THE biggest upset ever. Not that it isn't close

Would you consider it the biggest upset of all time if it had been Utah State instead of Appalachian State? It's valid to say yes, I probably would, but I'm curious.
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Old 09-03-2007, 04:41 PM   #119
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Re: *** Official Michigan Football 2007 Thread ***

Not sure you are responding to me or not. Just in case you are.

Quote:
lol @ the App St line holding their own
did you watch the game?
Nope, only saw the highlights.

Quote:

I did

Which makes your opinion regarding this point much more valid. No I am not being sarcastic.

Quote:

Michigan averaged 6.2 ypr even with Michael Hart sitting out a large portion of the game.
Michigan only allowed one sack in 37 pass attempts.

Meanwhile, App St averaged 3.6 ypr despite having a huge pass attack and successful QB runs. They also allowed 4 sacks to 23 pass attempts.

The lines were pwned.

Fair enough. I was going by a VERY small and insufficient sample of highlights and the fact that ASU blocked not one but two FGs. You can see why I would come to the conclusion that ASU's lines held their own.

Quote:

You had the following take place
-App St exposed the Michigan D's inexperience and faulty scheme which opens up the middle to spread attacks (we saw tO$U and SC blow that middle wide open last year as well)
-Michigan's coach was a moron and started going for 2 in the 3rd quarter in a shootout
-Michael Hart was out for nearly 2 quarters
-Michigan couldn't kick FGs
-Lloyd Carr's crappy play-calling
---Didn't threaten deep enough...see how easy it was for Manningham when they threw it up for grabs late...how is Manningham only getting 3 catches?
---terrible 2-point conv and fourth down plays (0 for 4)
-Terrible accuracy by Chad Henne (4th year starter????--lollerskates)
If this is all correct (and it very well may be), then it is very likely to have been as big of an upset as you and some others are suggesting.

Hopefully you can see why some of are skeptical though.
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Old 09-03-2007, 04:44 PM   #120
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Re: *** Official Michigan Football 2007 Thread ***

I am conflicted on how to weigh the blocked FGs

it might be line differences, but it seemed like blown assignments

I will say that App St is an impressive 1-AA squad, but I'd still be very embarrassed if Illinois lost to them.
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Old 09-03-2007, 04:51 PM   #121
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Re: *** Official Michigan Football 2007 Thread ***

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Quote:
Your math is flawed for one huge reason....the big favorites call off the dogs.....L'Ville is 79 points better, but layed off. This would account for the stat difference.

This is the biggest upset in history
And the big favorites don't call off the dogs against bad 1-A opponents too? Personally I would prefer the ranking system that actually predicts results over the one that says how much better a team hypothetically is. I'm not trying to use my numbers as evidence of how good Appalachian State is or isn't, I'm staying out of that argument. What I am looking at is the question of what a fair spread would have been, in order to determine how big of an upset this really was. If 1-A teams CONSISTENTLY "call of the dogs" to the tune of underperforming their "true" edge by an average of 21 points, then that should be factored into the line. I have no doubt the talent gap is large enough that Michigan could have won by 41 on average if they played their best for all four quarters, but in any normal version of this matchup they would reign it in, and not end up winning by that much. Therefore 38-40 would not have been a reasonable spread, since the margin would be less than that well more than 50% of the time. 30-32 is the highest spread that I think would have been reasonable for this game, and since that is less than the 35.5 that has happened in the past, I think there is a decent argument to be made that it isn't THE biggest upset ever. Not that it isn't close

Would you consider it the biggest upset of all time if it had been Utah State instead of Appalachian State? It's valid to say yes, I probably would, but I'm curious.
yeah...the talent gap according to steele was 38 points, but that is only one set of his rankings. I'm sure the final power poll (which he didn't release this year) would've had teh gap as smaller as App St clearly maximizes their potential while Michigan, as rated by Steele, merely plays to theirs. IIRC, the spread was 32 or 32.5 when I saw it at 5dimes college xtra. I didn't take note of it though and didn't write it down.

so, not the biggest spread to overcome

but, I have to think the distribution of outcomes, Michigan's 'name,' the spotlight, the numerous swings late, 100k opposing fans, etc makes it the biggest

I mean, W Mich-C Mich just doesn't measure up to all that
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Old 09-03-2007, 04:52 PM   #122
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Re: *** Official Michigan Football 2007 Thread ***

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I will say that App St is an impressive 1-AA squad, but I'd still be very embarrassed if Illinois lost to them.
As well you should be. The people who think Appalachian State is comparable to even a bad BCS conference team are deluded. I said I wouldn't get into the discussion of how good App St is, but I can't help but throw my two cents in. I think they would contend in the Sun Belt, or be middle of the road to bottom two thirds (but not cellar dwellers) in a weak mid-major conference like the MAC. I think Sagarin's ratings are seriously flawed for having them 59th preseason, they do NOT deserve to be nearly that high. I also think Steele's rankings are seriously flawed for having them 116th preseason, they do NOT deserve to be that low.

Everything you said statistically about the game was correct, and it confirms the talent gap, but don't try to tell me Michigan wouldn't dominate the lines just as effectively against Eastern Michigan... and probably without having their defense exposed anywhere near as badly.
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Old 09-03-2007, 04:53 PM   #123
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Re: *** Official Michigan Football 2007 Thread ***

probably just about equivalent....I have Michigan -33 v E Mich in Ann Arbor before week 1 results
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Old 09-03-2007, 04:58 PM   #124
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Re: *** Official Michigan Football 2007 Thread ***

Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Your math is flawed for one huge reason....the big favorites call off the dogs.....L'Ville is 79 points better, but layed off. This would account for the stat difference.

This is the biggest upset in history
And the big favorites don't call off the dogs against bad 1-A opponents too? Personally I would prefer the ranking system that actually predicts results over the one that says how much better a team hypothetically is. I'm not trying to use my numbers as evidence of how good Appalachian State is or isn't, I'm staying out of that argument. What I am looking at is the question of what a fair spread would have been, in order to determine how big of an upset this really was. If 1-A teams CONSISTENTLY "call of the dogs" to the tune of underperforming their "true" edge by an average of 21 points, then that should be factored into the line. I have no doubt the talent gap is large enough that Michigan could have won by 41 on average if they played their best for all four quarters, but in any normal version of this matchup they would reign it in, and not end up winning by that much. Therefore 38-40 would not have been a reasonable spread, since the margin would be less than that well more than 50% of the time. 30-32 is the highest spread that I think would have been reasonable for this game, and since that is less than the 35.5 that has happened in the past, I think there is a decent argument to be made that it isn't THE biggest upset ever. Not that it isn't close

Would you consider it the biggest upset of all time if it had been Utah State instead of Appalachian State? It's valid to say yes, I probably would, but I'm curious.
yeah...the talent gap according to steele was 38 points, but that is only one set of his rankings. I'm sure the final power poll (which he didn't release this year) would've had teh gap as smaller as App St clearly maximizes their potential while Michigan, as rated by Steele, merely plays to theirs. IIRC, the spread was 32 or 32.5 when I saw it at 5dimes college xtra. I didn't take note of it though and didn't write it down.

so, not the biggest spread to overcome

but, I have to think the distribution of outcomes, Michigan's 'name,' the spotlight, the numerous swings late, 100k opposing fans, etc makes it the biggest

I mean, W Mich-C Mich just doesn't measure up to all that
I can certainly agree that the marquee aspect of it counts for something. At this point I'm just arguing semantics. I still don't think it was the "biggest" upset ever, I think that is something measurable, just look at spreads, and you'll see it wasn't (quite). If you wanted to say it was the "most shocking", or "most spectacular" upset ever, or something like that, I would completely agree. I mean it wasn't just 1-AA vs. a ranked 1-A team. It was 1-AA against MICHIGAN. IN THE BIG HOUSE. WHEN THEY WERE PRESEASON #5!!! Of course it's huge

p.s. I really REALLY hope Appalachian State loses to Lenoir-Rhyne at home next week, I would laugh even harder, and that would only make this whole thing even better for me.
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Old 09-03-2007, 05:01 PM   #125
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Re: *** Official Michigan Football 2007 Thread ***

Lenoir-Rhyne is a trap game
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