The offense is going to be pretty good. Obv the worries are on the defensive side of the ball. Can Morgan Trent and Jamar Adams step up? Can true freshman Donavan Warren step in right away and fill a role in the secondary? There's a lot of doubt about the D-Line with the loss of Branch and Woodley but I'm pretty confident that Terrance Taylor and Will Johnson will be exceptional replacements as they get inserted into the starting slots. Don't forget Shaun Crable is there on the outside as well.

The biggest loss imo was David Harris, he was really the cornerstone of the defense and led the team in tackles his last two years. There was hope that JUCO transfer and JUCO national defensive player of the year Austin Panter would be able to step in and play but word out of Spring camp was that he still had a ways to go to in his transition to the D1 level. Hopefully he puts in a good summer and is able step in this fall.

Nice home schedule for my last year in A^2. Tough growing up watching us own OSU only to go 1-5 while I'm there (1-5 in bowls, too, but that's hardly a new tradition). If you want a good preview, I strongly suggest "Hail to the Victors" (clever title) from Maple Street Press. Brian of MGOBLOG fame wrote most of it (with help from some other bloggers/journalists), so you know it will be fantastic. Also a comparison of Malone/DeBord/Parrish (I think) from the guy from IblogforCookies, since I saw someone reference that.

Anyone doing any away games? I'll be at every one but Illinois.

I'm looking to do Illinois and Wisco.

My goofy analysis:

Automatic Wins: 5
App. State, NW, Eastern, Minnesota, Mich. St.

App. State isn't even Div1A, Eastern is a terrible MAC team, and Northwestern and Minnesota will probably both be at the bottom of the Big Ten this season.

I know I'm tempting fate by putting State here, but put a new coach/system and a new QB together with a team that was already pretty bad, and I don't see this game being competitive. This isn't your 2001 Sparty team, who surprised us in East Lansing but had Smoker/Duckett/Rogers and a thieving time keeper. They're just bad.

Almost Automatic Wins (greater than 90% confidence): 1
Purdue

I may be underestimating Purdue here; they have one of the better aerial attacks in the conference, as they have an experienced QB in Painter and a few skilled WRs; and short of Warren stepping in and immediately becoming a shutdown corner and/or Trent learning how not to get torched, our secondary is a glaring weakness. Still, the game is at home, Purdue's defense is awful, and the fact that Purdue was a bowl team last year says more about the bowl system than it does about the quality of last year's Boilermakers team. Short of some disaster, this is likely a win.

Probable Wins (greater than 75% confidence): 2
Oregon, Illinois

Oregon fell apart at the end of last season and look like a mediocre Pac 10 team. If this game is all that close, there's a chance that Hart/Henne are on crutches watching from the sidelines. With the rosters as currently constituted, I don't see us losing this game at home more than 1 out of every 4 times it's played.

I've state my reasons for being scared of Illinois and I stand by them. Summary: They're getting better, it's a night road game, and we're historically very questionable on the road in the Lloyd era.

Sort Of Worrisome But I'm Confident: 2
Notre Dame, PSU

No Quinn. No Smardizkzkzjza. No McKnight. No Walker. Clausen is an Emu. Defense is very good, though. We're probably better, and it's at home, but meh, we've lost to inferior ND teams in the past, so who knows.

PSU is a good team. Maybe I'm underestimating them, too. But most of last season's defensive line is gone, so we should have no problems running against them, but Connors and the other good linebacker they have (whatever his name is) may help there.

Levi Brown, the only guy who did any blocking for Morelli in the Michigan game last year, is in Arizona. Speaking of Morelli, count me in the camp that doesn't think he's good.

Again, maybe I'm overly confident here, but the PSU game doesn't strike fear in my heart.

Tough: 2
Wisconsin, OSU

Playing Wisconsin on the road in November is a tall order. Do they ever lose at home? They always have an offensive line +1500 lbs combined, and PJ Hill is obviously very good. Throw in Beckum catching balls over the middle against our questionable linebacks and secondary and this game has all the potential of being very scary. Either Donovan or Evridge will have taken alot of reps at QB by the time November rolls around. I think it's probably a very underrated offense right now that might not be so underrated come November. They do have play tOSU before us, though.

Not much to say about OSU. Troy Smith is thankfully and finally gone, but the defense is outstanding. They'll have plenty of [censored] teams to feast while whoever wins the QB battle gets comfortable. I won't make any predictions about this game, lest I unnecessarily anger the college football gods.

------

I haven't mentioned our special teams much. While I love Zoltan, he won't be kicking important, game-deciding FGs. I don't like our chances to come out on the right side of high-variance, close games with an inexperienced kicker, and this year sure reminds of me the Brabbs/Finley/Nienberg disaster of 2002.

Assuming we split the two tough games and lose one of the four Probable/Worrisome games, I think 10-2 is a reasonable bet. If something goes wrong (bunch of injuries to key players, etc). then 9-3 is possible. Similarly, if we get lucky, stay healthy, and everything falls right, we'll probably be competing for a spot in the BCS title game. I have enough secondary & special teams concerns to say this: I think we're currently at something like 6-1 to win the national title at most sportsbooks, but that strikes me as far too generous. Don't get me wrong, we're a very good team and the schedule sets up nicely, but this is a team with disconcerting weaknesses. Give me last year's team against this year's Big Ten and this year's favorable home-heavy schedule and I really like our chances to get to the BCS title game. This year's questionable defense and special teams puts alot of doubt in me.

Oregon fan assessment for our upcoming Meeting:

We are quite possibly screwed/it could be close. I know that is a wide range there so let me explain.

The primary reason why we could be screwed is our QB situation. On a scale from 1-10 our QB situation is a 5 at best. This is due to the lack of consistency from projected senior stater Dennis Dixon. When the kid is on, watch out because he can break down defenses with his legs and make some big throws. When he is off...well lets just say he personally was responsible for a couple losses which caused the entire team to spiral downhill.

Our receiving core is big and fast. If we had a decent QB good god I love it. Right now it is under-utilized.

Our running game is top-notch. We have probably the best 1-2 tailback combo in the country with both having the ability to rip a long run at any point. Jonathon Stewart is a legit STUD. He is a junior this year and we are expecting big things from him. Here is a a quick youtube run from his freshman year STUD . Jeremiah Johnson is the yang to his ying as he is not so much a power guy but is shifty. Here is a nice run (he is known for this kind of stiff arm) Stiffy .

Our O-line should be solid.

The variance for this offense is the new system brought in by new Offensive coordinator Chip Kelly who apparently is a spread offense genius (so they say).

The reason we have a chance is because for one game, with our weapons on O, we could get your inexperienced D in a world of hurt early.

Our defense is going to be decent. We have very good secondary skilled players and our D-line will be back to 100% this year (we were decimated on the d-line last year having to pull over a 3rd string TE due to injuries). This is a very good thing as we can actually look to stop the run this year again as we couldn't stop anything last year.

Our Linebackers will not be great but will be good enough to get the job done.

To summarize I see Michigan winning big or the Ducks winning a close one. If we get down huge our team will quit. If our offense figures it out and clicks...you guys are in trouble because we CAN (can not necessarily will)put 500 yards up on anybody.

Been out today did anyone catch the score?

lololol

I think (?) this is a joke, but if not, <3.

Oops, I'd be worried about the rest of those now too.

Could be a long season UM fans. I said damn. That was an awful (and very funny) start to what should be an 'exciting season'.

Are we allowed to turn this into the offical fire Lloyd Carr thread? Probably not, since it will never happen. I just hope Lloyd will have some class and do the right thing and announce his resignation at the end of the season.

I wish I had confidence that we would do what other major programs have done recently, and NOT promote from within like we did with Moeller and Carr. The fact that we went outside of the program for our last 2 BB coaches gives me a little hope.

I have hated on Lloyd since he was defensive coordinator, where he loved the weak-tight bend but don't break defense. Hopefully this loss with convince the last few remaining Lloyd Carr apologists that he needs to go. If this doesn't, nothing ever will.

You missed a spot.

Yes, the analysis does seem, indeed, goofy.

</Season>.

This [censored] blows.

When was the last upset of such proportion?

Never

This is the first time a 1-AA team has beaten a top 10 opponent and only the second time one has ever beaten a top 20 opponent (and that team was only ranked in the UPI poll, not the AP).

Chaminade over Virginia.

Vietnam over the United States.

Afghanistan over the Soviet Union.

this is the biggest upset in the history of college football.

seriously.

If ESPN is referring to the Lamar win over #20 Baylor I think they are actually wrong on this. Lamar was I-A that season and I-AA the following season.

When was Goliath around?

It's funny, I was following along on Gametracker and then when Mich took the lead and had the ball with 2:30 left I figured it was over and went out to get some food. Didn't find out App St had actually won until 45 minutes ago.

It is clearly the biggest upset in history, although Lloyd Carr's poor coaching diminishes it somewhat subjectively.

lol

This game is without a doubt the biggest upset since Buster Douglas knocked out Mike Tyson.

this thread now.