Quote:
Originally Posted by ILOVEPOKER929
Our OL got stalemated against Akron and Uconn. We know how 2013 turned out after that. And now our OL just got stalemated by Cincy and AF. Anyone who thinks everything is ok and that 10 wins is still a realistic possibility is more deluded than climate change deniers.
Obviously we can all poke holes in any analogy but youre doing it way wrong. Riverman is doing it right. Having Harbaugh instead of Hoke is our only hope. But seriously it's over. Just plz beat MSU again.
There are other hopes.
In order:
1. I don't think everything is OK but this was always going to be a transition/rebuilding year. 10 wins is still realistic, although probably bad outcomes like a 7 win season remain realistic as well. I agree that on the whole you are correct; this is a mediocre team in many facets, perhaps of 2013 vintage. But 2013 was probably a tougher schedule.
2. Also: some peripheral things like explosiveness/big play athletes (DPJ, Black, Ty Isaac/Chris Evans) on offense versus 2013 where your best athletes were like Jeremy Gallon and Devin Funchess. This is a testament to Harbaugh's recruiting that you have young, faster, frank better caliber of young player than Hoke. Special teams TDs from DPJ is not pure chance on the meta level, we can expect more special teams or offensive explosive plays all other things equal to the Hoke 2013 Michigan team because we simply have recruited better athletes in the past three years. Fitz Toussaint was a good player but imo there's no question that Isaac (a former 5 star) and Chris Evans are more explosive athletes and may have 1-2 explosive plays each this season that you wouldn't expect from Hoke's players. We got more MAKES PLAYS guys at our disposal than Hoke did.
tl;dr summary: recruiting improvements at skill positions make some amount of high-variance plays more likely
3. Obvious coaching improvement even if Harbaugh isn't literal gawd. The team will probably get better even if we expected more by now.
The 2017 defense has young/better athletes with more potential to get better faster (e.g., Gary, who I agree has been a disappointment) and some guys in the secondary. David Long was a borderline 5 star, for instance. Hoke recruited very well at first, but Harbaugh's classes have been better, and we probably have superior defensive coaching (Mattison is still on staff, Don Brown + Zordich + Mattison >>> Mattison + Curt Mallory + Roy Manning).
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Variance will be high. But we are still going to be favored in all but 3 remaining games. Rutgers is basically an auto-win. Purdue looks tougher but not enough data to conclude anything drastic. IU remains a likely win. Michigan State 2017 @ home >>> Michigan State 2013 @ MSU. They're not anywhere near the same as they were a few years ago. We're probably still 10 pt favorites over Minny. Maryland looks tough but I assume we're still favorites there.
Still a realistic shot at 10 wins. I think 9 wins is more likely and the most likely outcome. 8 is a distinct possibility. 7 is probably unlikely but small and extent.
No panic for me. I think the Florida win was a bonus. 2018 will be better and 2019 better still. This season was always going to be up-and-down and full of inconsistencies. Michigan isn't recruiting at Alabama or OSU's level and Harbaugh is human, not one of the greatest coaches of all time. Still a top 5-10 coach in the country we are very fortunate to have even if this year is frustrating at points. Watch DPJ work magic like yesterday, Black start to be a better route runner, Gary will be a beast more consistently, etc. etc., bank 8 or 9 wins and enjoy it imo. I think it gets better next year. Anyone who thinks we just show up and automatically get 10 wins because of the Winged Helmets and Harbaugh hasn't watched modern college football, and I thought we would have learned some lessons from say 2005-2014 that if this is a "bad" season we remained blessed.
Last edited by DVaut1; 09-17-2017 at 10:35 AM.