so LeVert looks prettay good

Time for this unranked team to shock the world tomorrow and upset the #1 team in the country.

how sweet it is to hear nantz calling a michigan game.

how unsweet it is watching another 1st half lead go to DIE with spike in.

and glennrob is michael jordan now.

driving to Wash DC ****ing nightmare in this weather. Pulled into a BDubs to watch this second half. Like what I'm seeing from a score standpoint.

that fade was nuts from gr3

stuck watching game cast at this stupid school thing.

gr3 being aggressive??

Where was the foul ffs

lol Spike

come on spike, you're a 5'11" white guy make the ft's ffs

lol spike

Lolspiiikkkkeee Jesus thou can we get it in another persons hands to shoot the fts

McGary absolutely killed us today. He was an absolute liability defensively and he got beat on the boards a lot. I don't understand why Beilein had him in over Horford at the game. Arizona scored like every possession in the last 5 mins when McGary was in. They went after him consistently.. it should have been so obvious to Beilein.

One thing we do very well defensively (and we did last year too) is recovering after pick and rolls. The bigs hedge very well, hold the ball handler off until the other defender recovers and then the players away from the screen rotate very well until the big can get back down low. Beilein (or someone) is doing a great job coaching PnR defense.

We suck on the boards... nothing new there.

Our offense is great when we're running Beilein's traditional offense, moving the ball on the perimeter, setting off ball screens, etc. Then we go into long stretches where we just go 1 v 1 every possession (see: 2nd half today). When we do that, we're terrible in the half court. LeVert is the only one that can create anything in an iso situation. He should be getting the ball 100% of the time when the shot clock is running out.

Spike >>> Walton at this point, Spike has been pretty damn good

Spike and Horford both need to play more.

Huge lol at Zak Irvin playing at the end of the game.. not sure what Beilein was thinking there. His defensive efforts on the late in bounds plays today were terrible.

Speaking of in bounds plays, we suck at getting the ball in bounds under the hoop. Again. Beilein needs to figure something out.

Win would have been huge in terms of our tourney chances.

I think we're prob 70% to get in right now.

70% equity I mean.

lol

it's not like we have a great OOC win. FSU and that is not all that great. We still have some work to do that is for sure. Not very impressive beating up on ****ty teams then losing to every solid team you face.

you agree with greear then that 30% of the time we miss the tournament?

i think we're probably 70% to still get a #6 seed or better.

Prolly not that high but there is definitely a scenario where we don't make it

sure there is. there's also a scenario where arizona doesn't make it and kent state wins the national title.

overreaction is part of being a sports fan, let alone being a michigan sports fan, i dig.. but saying we have 70% equity to make the tournament just isn't true. it might be 90%+ (because maybe one of the 'big 3' gets hurt and one of the other 2 is the worse version of themselves the rest of the way) but that's still a LOT different than saying "1 out of 3 times we don't make the tournament".

Biggest risk is doing ****ty in a loaded B1G.

Teams that could easily finish ahead of Michigan:
Ohio State
Wisconsin
Iowa
MSU
Minnesota
Indiana
Illinois

Then it starts getting more iffy. PSU could have a lucky run, and Purdue and Nebraska aren't awful.

So in some scenario where Michigan finishes like 9th or 10th in the B1G, they aren't getting in.

Michigan only plays Ohio State once (@), Illinois (@), Northwestern (home), PSU (home)

This is a bit unfavorable because you play 3 of the worst teams only once. Say you split with the top 6 that you play twice, lose to Ohio State. Lose Illinois, beat NW, PSU. Say beat Nebraska twice.

That's 10-8 in conference. Now say instead you lose both to Wisconsin and MSU. That's 8-10 and it gets more iffy.

I think if you go .500 in the B1G you are in. With an Arizona win, probably could have gotten by with 8-10 and a conference tourney win.

Michigan's a pretty solid favorite to finish ahead of Minnesota, Indiana and Illinois.

3 of our losses are to Kenpom's 4th, 19th, and 22nd ranked teams. Charlotte is 97th.

This is with McGary recovering from a back injury and being out of shape and GR3 and Stauskas being banged up. Also with a freshman point guard who might be losing his starting job.

LeVert and Horford both have looked great and much improved.

I'll lay 4:1 if people think that 70% number is close.

My reasoning for the 70% figure was how good the big 10 will likely be. 4 OOC losses already, so a 9-9 conference record might have us in trouble.

I'm listing worst case scenario. Obviously Michigan is favored above a lot of those teams. But it wouldn't be unreasonable for Michigan to split against those teams, and bad luck would be losing both to a few of the better teams, and losing on the road against the mediocre/bad teams.