Someone has way way too much time on their hands:

We really really need some physicality on D. Yes we have talent, but in watching games there is no apparent physical threat other than Johnson roaming around. I'm not sure about the schemes or those advanced metrics, but the D line and run defense seemed to get gashed and were over matched way too often. Few years ago we used to be slow, now we seem undersized and it feels like everyone is playing on their own island; there's no ball hawking ferocity whatsoever.

Andy Reid is fine. This is football, hitting home runs does not apply. The Chiefs have been lacking in leadership and direction (ofc hope was greatly hampered by Matt I'd-rather-hide-in-my-Castle) Who knows what really goes on behind the scenes or the reasons for a team's future/past success, but Reid obviously has his own philosophies and blueprint for how he thinks things should be done; which he will implement.

We have so much desperation, that there's no chance that Reid goes into the season without having maneuvered into a few options at QB. Not really sure how the market for trading/mortgaging draft picks is evolving, or what the employed but available market is (does TB new regime love Freeman).

Prob the biggest factor for predicting next fall's QB situation, will be how committed Hunt, and to a certain extent, Reid, are to building a contender patiently and calculated. In Philly, Reid used more QB's and schemes than first come to thought, I think this flexibility bodes well for the future prospects of this position.

What happens in the negotiations with Bowe and Albert will be interesting, and prob good indicators for the pace that they're willing to work at.

Reid's Philly MO seemed to consist of maintaining depth along both lines, we have flux in both areas, looking forward to how this goes.

Also excited about the draft and all the player movements that are bound to come with a new regime. i think the dynamic of our crappy record + the not terrible roster talent wise will be interesting. Are there personalities to be moved, do they view this roster as more of a rebuilding project or simpl7 lacking depth and a few cosmetic changes then one Major upgrade?

Charles is boss, will Andy Reid run the rock??

Nice post. Here's my wishlist: Sign Bowe and Albert, draft the best quarterback available at number one (probably Geno Smith), trade for the best experienced QB you can get to possibly start a few games and mentor the guy we draft.

Here's my 2c

Offer our 5th round pick to SF for Alex Smith. Draft BPA @ 1.1 or trade down and draft BPA at wherever and draft BPA @ 2.2. Draft EJ Manuel @ 3.1 to sit for a year behind Alex.

Sign Bowe to a 3-4 year deal. Sign Colquitt to the same. Not sure what to do with Albert if they draft Joeckel at 1.1. I don't think they will, so sign Albert to a 3-4 year deal if you don't.

**** Joeckel. We have a top 10 LT already. There's no point having a stud LT if you don't have a QB to protect. Even if we pick Geno Smith and he turns out to be the 10th best QB in the NFL, that's still worth more than the greatest LT of all time. Also nothing is a sure thing. Joeckel could always be another Mandarich. Gotta go for QB imo. How do you think the Dolphins feel about drafting Long and passing on Ryan?

I think the pundits are just picking Joeckel because the narrative this year is there's no Luck or RGIII, so a QB can't possibly go #1. Well no ****, almost every year there's no Luck or RGIII. But QBs still go #1 all the time. Cliffs: pundits are morons.

It's a lot easier to pick up just about anyone other than a QB in free agency. The Chiefs should keep drafting QBs until one pans out.

Also realize that BPA at 1.1 means no RTs, guards, centers, TEs, fullbacks, middle linebackers or safeties. Probably no running backs either unless it's a once a decade RB. So it's not really BPA.

At week 8 what should the Chiefs' record be for us to say whether or not the changes (Head Coach, hopefully upcoming QB change, draft pics, etc.) are heading in the right direction?

Are they looking to grab a playoff spot or is improving to 6-10 in 2013 enough of a a jump from an embarrassing 2012 season?

Records aside, I'm excited for the season because it's a fresh look. We shouldn't be on ESPN with a QB that leads some *teams* in turnovers. I'd like to see a different flavor of Chiefs than we've had the last several years.

Before we give a ****load of money to Albert, he's going to have to get a clean bill of health. He's had back issues and if he's not going to be healthy, let him go.

If Albert is gone, I think we'd be better off picking Joeckel first and someone like Tyler Wilson in the second round than picking Geno first and the 4th best LT in the second. I don't think there's just enough separation between the QB's this year and anyone we pick is going to be a crap shoot.

That is unless someone goes off at the combine and shoots up the draft boards.

BPA obviously implies you aren't taking a fullback or some other replaceable position. Should be a CB, LB, LT, WR, or QB. The QB & WR are not top heavy, so I suggest 1 of the other 3 positions.

Whoever gets picked #1 better be good enough to come in and start right away - no projects and that includes QBs.

Which they usually do. If the Chiefs don't trade for Alex Smith or Matt Flynn or someone, the pundits will find a QB and start projecting that to us. This fan base is completely fed up with the QB play since Trent Green. There is no way Hunt goes into the season with the junk heap at QB again. All the season ticket holders would revolt.

If a QB has to sit for half the season and ends up being really good that is still like 5 times more valuable than a pro-bowl LT who starts right away.

I mean if nothing else shouldn't the last few years show how much more important a QB is than every other player - looking at the Chiefs, but also teams like the Colts and Redskins? A great QB can win a SB with a decent team around him. But a mediocre QB wins the superbowl like once a decade and none since Brad Johnson.

Here's a visual illustration of how important a QB is:

Super Bowl 1. Bart Starr (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 2. Bart Starr (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 3. Joe Namath (MVP), 0 TDs
Super Bowl 4. Len Dawson (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 5. John Unitas (Chuck Howley), 1 TD
Super Bowl 6. Roger Staubach (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 7. Bob Griese (Jake Scott), 1 TD
Super Bowl 8. Bob Griese (Larry Csonka), 0 TDs
Super Bowl 9. Terry Bradshaw (Franco Harris), 1 TD
Super Bowl 10. Terry Bradshaw (Lynn Swann), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 11. Ken Stabler (Fred Biletnikoff), 1 TD
Super Bowl 12. Roger Staubach (Harvey Martin & Randy White), 0 TDs
Super Bowl 13. Terry Bradshaw (MVP), 4 TDs
Super Bowl 14. Terry Bradshaw (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 15. Jim Plunkett (MVP), 3 TDs
Super Bowl 16. Joe Montana (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 17. Joe Theismann (John Riggins), 2 TDs,
Super Bowl 18. Jim Plunkett (Marcus Allen), 1 TD
Super Bowl 19. Joe Montana (MVP), 3 TDs
Super Bowl 20. Jim McMahon (Richard Dent), 0 TDs
Super Bowl 21. Phil Simms (MVP), 3 TDs
Super Bowl 22. Doug Williams (MVP), 4 TDs
Super Bowl 23. Joe Montana (Jerry Rice), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 24. Joe Montana (MVP), 5 TDs
Super Bowl 25. Jeff Hostetler (Ottis Anderson), 1 TD
Super Bowl 26. Mark Rypien (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 27. Troy Aikman (MVP), 4 TDs
Super Bowl 28. Troy Aikman (Emmitt Smith), O TDs
Super Bowl 29. Steve Young (MVP), 6 TDs
Super Bowl 30. Troy Aikman (Larry Brown), 1 TD
Super Bowl 31. Brett Favre (Desmond Howard), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 32. John Elway (Terrell Davis), 0 TDs
Super Bowl 33. John Elway (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 34. Kurt Warner (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 35. Trent Dilfer (Ray Lewis), 1 TD
Super Bowl 36. Tom Brady (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 37. Brad Johnson (Dexter Jackson), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 38. Tom Brady (MVP), 3 TDs
Super Bowl 39. Tom Brady (Deion Branch), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 40. Ben Roethlisberger (Hines Ward), 0 TDs
Super Bowl 41. Peyton Manning (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 42. Eli Manning (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 43: Ben Roethlisberger (Santonio Holmes), 1 TD
Super Bowl 44: Drew Brees (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 45: Aaron Rogers (MVP), 3TDs
Super Bowl 46: Eli Manning (MVP), 1 TD

Something to think about, when it comes to the QB position, NFL talent evaluators are much more likely to overvalue talents and potential, then undervalue them. This is because, as you're advocating, the QB is essential; so when it comes to risk assessment, an evaluator is willing to take on higher uncertainty if the payoffs are higher.

I'm more a hard core casual fan than someone who actually knows what they're talking about (I thought Leinhart/Quinn Yay outta college), but the falling and plateauing of stock for Barkely/Smith is more telling in this day and age than in the past. Of course they still have to run their combines and individual work outs, but I really can't remember when a QB they were down on, after previous hype, were able to surpass expectations.

I'm in the NW and I've followed Wilson fairly closely, and I don't really believe that he fits the criteria for what I'm talking about + its my belief that they NFL defensive philosophies will adjust enough and he'll have a hard time surpassing the statistical numbers of his rookie year--Note I don't believe this to be the same as him not being able to be as efficient as this past year.

fwiw I think Smith is more of a project with a lower ceiling and Barkley's bound to have a few seasons' opportunity somewhere. But I don't think the Chiefs will use the #1 overall pick on a QB. Again, in this day and age, they can't afford to/are unwilling to go with gut feelings and miss in such a high profile circumstance; and in terms of value, imo, they can come close to what smith/barkely can offer via other means; e.g. trades for current QB's, trading back, packaging picks to move up, etc.

cliffs: the chiefs won't use #1 overall pick on a QB

And how well did these NFL scouts do on Rodgers, Freeman, Roethlisberger, Flacco, Kapernick, Russel Wilson?

Yes they could be right. But they could be wrong. It's still worth the risk imo to draft the best QB available. Or we could use our pick on someone "safe" like Aaron Curry or Tyson Jackson.

Frankly I don't really care who we pick first cuz I don't know **** about evaluating talent


I'm kind of in the suzzer mindset that we need to just grab qbs till one works out cuz there is no way you get a good one in free agency but at the same time it doesn't seem like there is much separation at the top of the qb class so I don't really care if we grab one with the 1st pick or the 2nd round. I am way to stupid to do anything other than just wait and hope for the best once they get on the field. But yeah I mean if whoever we pick sucks just keep drafting qbs. I'm with him that getting a franchise qb is so damn important that it trumps everything else pretty hard ESP with this team where all our other positions are looking to be in pretty darn reasonable shape

definition of casual fan analysis here

Ooooh, Rodgers is a good one. All the others were rising and gaining momentum with their play. I mean, I used to think really smart people were at the top making decisions; politicians, corporate heads, etc. Now, especially after living through the poker boom, and seeing the transition happening in sports, I've got a better understanding of how people get to top spots, and what the top actually is.

To keep this soliloquy brief, the 'formula' isn't perfect. These guys are only working with what they know. They can only evaluate raw talent in the ways that they understand it, granted this is pretty sophistocated; but when it comes to assessing the changes and transitions between a college game and the NFL, this is obv much harder. Case in point is Kaepernick, I don't know, but I'm sure if you asked a 100 NFL people about him, the standard deviation on him would be much greater than, using your list in order, Big Ben/Rodgers/Flacco/Freeman/Wilson. It's worth mentioning that there's 30 teams and we don't know where say, the Patriots stood on any of these QB's, there's a lot of variance in teams' needs and who has the final say and their beliefs.

My whole point is that the Chiefs won't 'risk' the #1 overall pick on players of Barkely/Smith current prognosis. Last year I really really wanted them to upgrade from Cassel and would have been ok with a future mortgage if they believed in RGIII; I'm not ok with them taking a QB #1 overall if they're not absolutely certain.

The point is you can never be absolutely certain. But if you don't take a risk on guys like the ones I mentioned you wind up where the Chiefs are right now - 6 pro-bowlers on a 2-14 due to absysmal QB play. It's like choosing a 70% chance at winning a small pot vs. a 40% chance at winning a huge one.

I still like my strategy a lot.

No QB is worth anything close to the #1 pick this year. Grab a shutdown corner or whoever is deemed most valuable, and do it again in round 2. EJ Manuel is not any worse than these other guys + his ceiling is basically Kaepernick.

I guess I trust Dorsey/Reid to figure this out, but if you're not going to be a playoff team in 2013 with any of the QBs in this draft, then why not trade for Alex Smith and draft the QB with the highest ceiling in round 3?

We let Carr go because we didn't want to pay two #1 corners. Drafting a CB at #1 would be nuts.

Rookie salary cap though. We wouldn't have to pay him like a #1 for a couple of years.

I think where we might be off is that I don't think the consensus is that Barkley/Smith is even a 40% chance. I know that number was prob arbitrary, but I think what the Chiefs will believe is that they can find near the same value as that 40% via other means. Trading down, trading up, trades, etc. So if they feel that they can accomplish that, and maintain a safe impact at #1, then they will do that; and I think that would be prudent.

We also don't know how they feel about the current roster, or what they think they can achieve by opening day. Personally I feel we're much closer than our record, but closer to what? Are we searching for competitiveness; does a sure 40% at #1 give us better opportunity than a 80% chance at the same 40% at pick #xx or a 50% chance at two ~25%-33% a little latter?

I understand that a hit is a really really awesome thing and extremely needed; but we can use analogies to benefit either side of a point. Drew Brees is a wonderful QB in an excellent offense, but they couldn't win half their games. Romo, Manning, Cutler, Stafford, Newton, Freeman, Bradford, Big Ben, Rivers, and a number of highly drafted QB's missed the playoffs. The entirety of the roster does matter, and prob more so than is attributed in our over sensationalized sports media.

I just want the Chiefs to have a plan, and then believe and stick to the process. The fan in me thinks that they could probably achieve this, even not taking a QB #1 overall. This same fan also feels like it would really suck to either blow it up or not make any progress the way Pioli went about it. Like, he didn't really do anything horrific, but then he also didn't do anything good either (Cassel wasn't as horrific in theory as it was in results)

edit: if they think they can get a QB that gives them a decidedly better chance than any other option...TAKE IT.

Letting Carr go was a mistake. Said it last summer, during the year, and I'm still saying it now. If Millener (sp) is the best player, take him. Or trade back to like 3-4 and pick him. Picking a QB at 1.1 just to do it is not a good idea.

We're not going to be able to trade the pick. There isn't that great of a demand for any players in this draft.

Ya, draft is deep but not very top heavy.

could potentially change after combine though

always does