Quote:
Originally Posted by Dyenimator
Avila's wOBA through today is .252. Last year it was ~.400. Laird throughout his career is .296. Obviously Avila has had a small sample size, but @ .381, he should be seeing more PT, right?
The chances that Avila's true wOBA is ~.380 are approximately 0. That would make him as good a hitter as Evan Longoria, which just isn't true. Avila's 2009 numbers were inflated by a 26% HR/FB rate. His current HR/FB rate is 22%. To give you an idea of how that compares, Ryan Howard had a 25% HR/FB rate and Miggy had a 18% HR/FB rate last year.
Statistical projections put Avila's true wOBA is probably around .290-.330. If his wOBA truly was .381, he should be getting more playing time. However, that would make him the second best hitting catcher in the league, which is just not true. The difference between his expected offense and Laird's expected offense simply isn't worth more than 8-13 runs, which is what Laird is good for over a season behind the plate according to the best stats on catcher's d we have.