i laughed

5/7: Went 2-0. +$815

Updated Record: 46-45, +9.67u (+$2,417)
Total points gained on closing market: +1,843
Pts/gm: +20.25

5/8 Bets:

Dodgers -186 (Wood/Williams) $465 to win $250 (Game was put back on the board)

5/9 Bets:

Twins -111 (Santiago/Pelfrey) $552.50 to win $500

I hereby humbly apologize for my support of Brad over the past two years when you guys were saying he sucked.

"But Ausmus is so smart. He went to Darthmouth or Harvard or whereverthe****. He's a former catcher. He invented a time machine so he could go back and beat Albert Einstein at Trivial Pursuit!" Bull****.

Wilson has like a negative WHIP, but he gets sent out in the 8th to face their 6-8 batters, so Frankie can get the pathetic save if he can fade the top of their lineup (he can't).

Brad is young enough he should be able to get this ****. A W for the team is more important than a ****ing S for your pathetic veteran.

I just long for the days when managers will finally realize that starting pitchers not named Kershaw should never go three times through the lineup and the "closer" label is dropped forever and replaced by the "awesome high leverage guy" label, I.E. the guy that will give you 1 inning in a game at the exact time you need him most. E.G. if your starting pitcher is Pelfrey, you'll probably need that AHLG in the 4th or 5th to clean up his mess.

Obvious problem with my longings: If managers do this, scoring and probably ratings will drop. Another problem is the backwards culture of saves and wins is a bit out of mangers' control. Forgot the name of the manager, but in that Scorecasting book, the manager went with a more optimal pitching arrangement (something like 3 innings each for a pitcher during a game IIRC--kinda like how you would manage pitchers in RBI baseball for nintendo lol) that worked statistically but really hurt pitcher "wins" and the players we're on the brink of revolting since this strategy was costing them money. The manager ended up switching back to the more suboptimal conventional format.

we will see if Brad gets it.

K-Rod cant ever be in a tie game or save situation ever again.

Same for Anibal.

ILP, what does the model say for Cubs/Rockies tonight (and what are you seeing for lines)? Just curious for telling-friend-at-work-he's-an-idiot purposes

I ignore all Rockies games:-/

Model doesn't work well for Rockies so I never analyze/bet them. I don't know how to deal with the Coors field effect or the "hangover effect" of Rockies players playing on the road in normal environments.

That said, all my friends are pounding Rockies and Reds today. Obviously after last night's marathon, everyone wants to fade the Yankees and Cubs now. Sounds like your work buddy is also on to this failproof get rich quick scheme. Good for him. I shall root for him*.

Indeed he is on that obvious free Rockies money.

Indiana football was indeed the GOAT Gravy Train. They were playing a 5th string walkon freshman at QB and the line moved by like 4 points.

I made $26K fading that guy. I'm seriously still ashamed at how fast I blew that good fortune.

Speaking of failproof get rich quick schemes, auto-fading Pelfrey is as close as it gets right now. How the hell that Twins line hasn't made a big move yet is beyond me.

I heard/read somewhere (maybe Charlie Steiner doing a Dodgers radio game last year when they had a bunch of red-eye cross-country flights or something) that in games after teams have a marathon game, or whose travel gets screwed up, that the marathon team does as well or better than normal in their next game, but that the 2nd game afterward is usually a let-down.

Remember the day when Zumaja was pitching the 8th throwing 103? He was the real closer. Right now Wilson pitching the 8th is the real closer. Why? Simply because a 1-run lead with 6 outs to go is a higher leverage situation than a 1-run lead with 3 outs to go. You can actually look up the percentages and a 1-run lead in the 8th is less likely to result in a win. Can't argue with logic supported by numbers.

Nevertheless K-Rod has to be DFA immediately. Personally I would make a deal with the A's in order to obtain Wahl. They can have Rondon, K-Rod and Anibal for him if they want. Wahl is my type of guy for 9th inning.

Could be true. Altho I try to ignore such angles for the same reason it's best for someone on a diet to keep all the junk food out of the house. After all, any excuse to put money on a game is a good excuse!

5/8: Won Dodgers. +$250

Updated Record: 47-45, +10.67u (+$2,667)
Total points gained on closing market: +1,887
Pts/gm: +20.51

5/9 Bets:

Twins -111 (Santiago/Pelfrey) $552.50 to win $500

5/10 Bets:

Twins +118 (Hughes/Holland) $250 to win $295
Indians -130 (Salazar/Liriano) $647.50 to win $500
Mets -105 (Milone/Cain) $262.50 to win $250
Dodgers -179 (Maeda/Kuhl) $447.50 to win $250

Another 5/10 Bet:

A's -119 (Triggs/Chavez) $297.50 to win $250

Dozier and Sano out. **** me.

nvm god i'm so smart

Welcome to the J Wilson era.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

Wasn't a save situation though. We will see

5/9: Won Twins: +$500

Updated Record: 48-45, +12.67u (+$3,167)
Total points gained on closing market: +1,886
Pts/gm: +20.28

5/10 Bets:

Twins +118 (Hughes/Holland) $250 to win $295
Indians -130 (Salazar/Liriano) $647.50 to win $500
Mets -105 (Milone/Cain) $262.50 to win $250
Dodgers -179 (Maeda/Kuhl) $447.50 to win $250
A's -119 (Triggs/Chavez) $297.50 to win $250

5/11 Bets:

None so far.

With Wilson you don't have to hold your breath. That makes a huge difference.

Just have to stop conceding 3 run games by putting anibal in the game

He gives up 3 runs every time he goes out there.

5/10: Went 2-2 (Twins cancelled). -$410

Updated Record: 50-47, +11.03u (+$2,757)
Total points gained on closing market: +2,009
Pts/gm: +20.71

5/11 Bets:

Astros +115 (Keuchel/Pineda) $250 to win $287.50
Twins +119 (Hughes/Holland) $250 to win $297.50

Three runs or two bombs, whichever's greater