It seems the consensus has moved to no player is worth the #2 pick. Thibs too risky, Willis too risky, Hamilton not transcendent enough to take a safety here. Maybe Seattle will panic trade up for a QB? Or someone will fall in love with one of the tackles and move up?

Sigh. Guess there's a difference between 1 & 2 this year after all.

Oh well still like Campbell and Holmes.

I'm starting to think swing for the fences and take whichever QB you think is best. sit him for a year and polish up the rest of the roster, then push all the chips in for a 4 year run during the remainder of his rookie deal.

the past few seasons have been a real eyeopener for how important getting a big time QB on a rookie deal is or getting a stud and mortgaging the future, and if you choose the latter your window seems like 2ish years before the assets run out and the contracts add up.

feel like Holmes has done a rock solid job so far of turning over this roster (not close to done obv), clearing bad contracts and not blowing his cap wad, and implementing a staff and culture it appears players really like.

I understand the argument that they'll probably not be good next year and this class is weak but are they really going to be that bad again? I truthfully don't think so. guess I'm coming to the realization I'd rather have them get their choice of QB in this class vs potentially drafting like 12th next year and only getting a shot at QB 3 or 4 of that draft.

Fine if they trade down a couple spots if no strong preference for any of those guys but unless there are giant red flags I’m probably still taking Thibodeaux if no partner is out there.

also not saying it has to be at 2, get the player at the best cost if possible, obv. I just don't buy seeing draft buffs saying you can't take a guy like Willis at 2 but it would be okay for NYG or Seahawks to do so at 7 or 9. especially in this draft.

lions are 4.5 o/u for season wins, which side you guys taking?

after spending the evening putting on my youtube scout hat I agree barring a trade just take Thib at 2, he fits very well, and hope Willis or Corral fall to 32. can't imagine that happens but those are the only two I like and if it happens any year this is it. Pickett looks like the obv bust to me.

think its over by at least a game and will place a small sweat wager just for the sweat.

Over. My normal distribution curve would be centered at about 6.5 wins, so I’d feel good about O4.5.

First thought is pretty solid over:

• The team was 3-3 over the last 6 games/playing better at the end of the year
• We were unlucky not to win 5+ games last year anyway
• Adding Chark to an already decent offense that didn't lose anybody
• Good draft capital
• Weak division

My concern is, Vegas knows all this and set the line at 4.5 anyway. I would bet the over is a popular bet (anyone know the vig? I tried googling for a minute but can only find super-bowl odds not win totals). As we all know, casinos aren't built on the public regularly beating the house.

I'd objectively take the over as well for many of the reasons listed, but some counterpoints:

Reasons for pessimism:

- Jared Goff play in back half of season maybe the exception, not the rule.
- Offensive improvements may be hard to sustain as defenses have time to gameplan against it better.
- Defense also seemed to outperform its talent in some spots (Charles Harris, the UDFA CBs), Vegas may be forecasting a regression to the mean.
- Relatively weak top of draft class means getting a high impact player may be unlikely.

I think at this point I'm also on team Thibs if Hutch goes #1. We know he's got the skills to be a good pass rusher in the NFL. There's really nothing we can do about this being a crap draft class for us at #2, and finding a trade partner isn't quite the same as it is on the mock draft simulator. Take what you can get. Thibs may not be a long term answer, but take him at #2, he's an instant improvement, and if he's got the character/talent issues, we can move on after his rookie deal.

I have no doubt Kyle Hamilton is going to be a good player. But I do worry that he's got the right mix of skills to dominate college but that dominance won't translate to the NFL. His combine results were good but not elite, and when you start talking safety at #2, elite would help make that more palatable.

I've also gone down the Malik Willis highlights rabbit hole. He's got plenty of film out there that makes him look like Lamar Jackson. If that's the case, hell yes #2. I've also seen videos that highlight some of his inaccuracies and fundamental problems. However I will say I remember hearing a lot of the same stuff about other big armed athletic QBs like Lamar, Josh Allen, and Herbert. If we think he can be like one of those guys, also hell yes #2.

Maybe this is the wrong way to think, but I feel that if you draft a QB at #2 and it doesn't work, it's a significant setback. You build around a QB and have to give him time to develop and learn. With an edge rusher, if he doesn't work out you just put in the next best player. Yeah it sucks not to get value out of the #2 pick, but there's a much bigger opportunity cost with taking a bust QB than a bust Edge.

Edit: I will say drafting Willis would at least be fun. We've never had a QB like that in Detroit. Arm strength is definitely the new hotness in QBs right now and he's got that in droves. And seeing a QB who can bust a huge run out of a busted play is awesome. I'd at least have tons of fun watching it.

Lions on Hard Knocks - don't act like you guys aren't excited

Appointment television! Absolutely pumped. Feels like the best possible time to have a Hard Knocks season with the combination of late-honeymoon regime + optimism coming out of the end-of-season improvements and the FO's draft-hits last year.

BTW: I went back and looked at the three games we were were unlucky not to win last year . Per ESPN win percentage, we had:

99.9% chance to win with 0:26 left in 4Q vs the Ravens.
82.3% chance to win with 0:37 left in 4Q vs the Vikings.
90.1% chance to win with 2:42 left in OT vs the Steelers.

Per those percentages the odds of getting 0 wins out of those three games (which we did) was 0.002% (1 in 50,000). I knew we had some historic bad swings, but I didn't quite realize how historic - I doubt the NFL has ever had a team come away without a win in 3 similar situations, and I don't know if it ever will again.

I've never watched Hard Knocks but it looks like I'm about to start.

I don't know much about Travon Walker but from the highlights I've seen he plays like a man possessed and tested off the charts at the combine. I could get on board with him at 2.

Lol, Same.

I have no problems if they take Walker over Thibodeaux. You cant teach size or speed and Walker seems to have those traits all around. His production numbers may be a little lower since UGA played him all over not just as traditional DE - that should be viewed as a positive

More importantly Campbell needs to get a player he likes from effort and attitude standpoint and if he prefers Walker then let us do it.

This is the kind of effort I want to see out of our D linemen


https://twitter.com/i/status/1507744815433273348

meh, sure he has the physical tools but why wasn't he a good pass rusher in college (9.5 total sacks in 3 seasons)? its certainly not because they didn't use him like that because they played him everywhere along the D-line.

I see a ton of Clowney in him. 3/4 defensive end with all the physical tools but has no pass rush moves or plan. he'll probably be a really good run defender and play at a high level for a number of years but to me he's very similar to drafting Kyle Hamilton. will be a good pro but doesn't give the Lions quite what they need at 2nd overall.

Haha - the extent of my 'research' is a couple articles on Pride of Detroit and about 45 seconds of Twitter highlights

Ziggy Ansah had 4.5 sacks in 3 years (OK yes he didn't play much, but he did his last year and only had 4.5). Walker seems like a consensus top 10 pick at this point, so it's not like he would be a huge stretch at 2. He's a freak athlete for his size, and maybe I'm wrong about this, but if there's one position where freak athleticism and size translates to success at the NFL it's at the edge position.

The only knock on him is that Georgia's D-Line was so dominant that they couldn't just focus on him like teams did with Thibodeaux. I wouldn't focus too much on just his raw sack numbers in college. There's a lot of reasons those might not line up with his talent level. And to the point about him not giving the Lions what they need at #2 overall, who really does in this draft? Assume Hutchinson goes #1 and there's no decent trade offers. You've got to draft someone. Would you rather have Thibodeaux who may have more talent now but might not be a hard worker and wash out after a while? Malik Willis who could either be Josh Allen or Josh Rosen? Or you could take a high floor guy like Hamilton or Walker who is going to give you solid starting reps right away even if they aren't pro-bowl caliber. I honestly don't know. I'm usually a swing for the fences kind of guy, but if we're talking Edge I'm not sure that Thibs has a better chance of being a home run than Walker.

your anecdotal example is far from the norm as college production is a much better indicator of success than a lack of production. also if I remember correctly Ziggy had only been playing football for like 3 years total. of course he was gonna be rough but he showed bend and speed to power. that's the knock on Walker, he shows virtually nothing as a pass rusher and he's knocked as a bad tackler to boot. he shows good hand fight skills to hold the edge and get free from blockers which will make him a good run defender, but aside from motor and athleticism, that's all he shows right now.

I'm not sure if you've done so, and of course lolyoutubes, but if you watch the scouting videos on there (not the highlight vids) a large majority of the vids say it would be crazy to take him top 10 and people are just falling in love with the measurables. will somebody do it? probably, lol.

at this point I don't really care what they do. nothing says to me it MUST be this person and I'm certainly far from a professional scout so I'll just put my faith in Holmes to make the right decision.

Can't pick a trash QB at 2
Can't pick a safety at 2

Just pick aiden or tib. Whomever is there. Hopefully they don't go smartest guy in the room pick like fat **** picking a 6th round LB in the 2nd round.

Really hope the Panthers or Seahawks trade up with us for Willis. Fig Hutch goes 1 I dont really see huge differences in the guy we would take 2 or 10 in this class.

As far as I can tell the only players consensus worth a trade up in this draft is OT and you can get one at 3 cuz the Lions can't take one. We need someone to pull of a bears trubisky type move to get a good trade here.

I hear ya. Seems like I always want a trade down and it never happens.

Anyways I'm actually alright scooping Walker at this point. I like DEs.

Walker's odds of being picked in the top 2 have been skyrocketing up betting markets. I think he's ahead of Thibs in the #1 overall odds at +250 even though Hutch still has that spot locked down.

It seems like at this point we are down to 5 finalists for the #2 pick.

Aidan Hutchinson - If for some reason he doesn't go #1 I'd make him the guy. He seems to have it all. The athleticism, the size, the college production on a power 5 team, and most importantly I think, the raw power to take on NFL tackles. I love a good edge rusher who can just knock an OT out of his way and Hutch has that.

Kayvon Thibodeaux - The consensus #1 pick before the college season started. Good production and excellent athlete. The concerns about commitment and effort are well documented. I'll trust the front office to do their homework (they sent like 7 guys to his pro day, lol). If those seem like overblown, then him being the pick seems fine.

Travon Walker - The combine hero. Decent in college, but lit up the combine with his athleticism. Discussion was had about this earlier in the thread. Hot take, sack numbers are a bit overrated and subject to variance. Pass rush win rate and pressures are where it's at. Did Aaron Donald get a sack on the final drive of the SB? No. Did he single handedly ice the game by making sure Burrow was unable to get anything resembling an effective pass off? Absolutely. That said Walker's numbers here weren't particularly great in college compared to Hutch and Thibs. He did play more inside, and came from the SEC, but it seems like teams may be betting they can convert his athleticism into production. If the Thibs concerns seem valid, and none of the other players on the board seem elite, I'd be OK with upgrading at edge even it is for a player who in a more stacked draft class may be a more mid 1st round pick.

Kyle Hamilton - The "best player in the draft" or so some say. Positional value at safety is real. This has to be an out of the park homer if you're going to swing at this pitch. He'd have to be a complete game wrecker in both the pass and the run game the way guys like Polomalu or Reed were. A roamer with range that if the QB forgets about is taking it the other way. But just as likely to hit your RB at the line of scrimmage. You also want them delivering hits that make the poor receiver or back wish he had called in sick that week. Despite the NFL's efforts to reduce concussions I think there's still a place for that. I'm not 100% sure I see this from Hamilton's tape. He's good, no doubt, and has the size to do it. His athleticism is good but not elite. I'd rather take a good edge player like Walker at 2 than a good safety at 2. He'd have to have a high probability of being HoF elite for me to want to take him at 2.

Malik Willis - Is he Vince Young or Josh Allen? With everything I hear about him I like him more and more. I totally get it if they take him. It's just going to be so heart breaking to whiff on a top QB for a team that's still in a rebuild and has many other needs. It will be a big set back. Joey Harrington level. I do think with his athleticism and arm strength his floor is a lot higher than others give him credit for. Maybe at his worst he's... Cam Newton? Could be worse.

Current DK odds for the #2 pick
Hutch +250
Walker +250
Thibs +330
Willis +475
Hamilton +1200.

And just for fun, some potential draft surprises. Most of these are more in play if a trade down happens, but weirder things have happened at the top.

CB - Gardner or Stingley. CB is a potential big need. We have a lot of bodies here but no standout elite CB's. I think it's best to wait and see for a year if anyone develops. Mel Kiper's latest mock has them taking Gardner. Blech, no thank you.

EDGE - Jermaine Johnson. Productive in college. Decent combine. Probably a top 10 pick. Hard to see him going over Walker and Thibs, but if they like him and decide Edge is where they want to go, it could happen.

QB - Kenny Pickett. Some say he's the best QB in the draft, and the Lions need a QB. Do they like him more than Willis? I don't. This pick would piss me off.

Interesting you say this under Walker when this article just dropped today and backs up exactly what you're saying.

https://www.prideofdetroit.com/2022/...von-thibodeaux

It's a bit long but a good read, but I'll slice out a snippet.

"Now that we’re nearly 800 words into this, let’s start talking about what makes Thibodeaux an awesome player, and it starts with that explosive first step—which just so happens to be the one common trait amongst all elite pass rushers in this league. He matches that step with elite athleticism in every other facet of the game, including the all-important bend around the edge that should give offensive tackles hell at the next level.

And unlike Walker, these athletic traits translating to production is not theoretical. Thibodeaux racked up 9.0 sacks in his first year as mostly a rotational player, and nearly matched it last season despite only playing in 11 games and dealing with an ankle injury for the majority of the year. His pressure rate—which ESPN’s Seth Walden points out translates almost completely linearly to NFL production—was among the best in this year’s class."

Pressure rates from last year
Thibs = 15%
Hutch = 13%
Walker = 8%

On the flip side of that article a fellow POD columnist was on a podcast recently and was pounding the table for Walker very hard. He makes a completely valid argument which I've always acknowledged but, for me, that is not the direction I want them to go at #2.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XVTj...ionablePodcast

The only caveat there may be the level of competition played against, but even then I just don't think that explains it. It's not like the Pac-12 is JV football.

So I think my final draft board at #2 is 1. Hutch, 2 Thibs. If Hutch is gone and there is real concern that Thibs has an attitude/personality that won't jive with the NFL, then it gets tricky. I think the safe pick is Walker. Hamilton only if you think he projects to be about the best safety in the NFL. Willis if you think he has a much higher floor than he's been given credit for.

They have tons of options at 32 & 34 as well. I wouldn't hate seeing both picks go to defense. We did just sign a FA safety yesterday but I still think you can grab one here, as well as LB.