3rd and 1 100%. You have nothing but faith in your o line. Just run it.
4th and 4 vs. short punt vs. 53 yard FG - I dunno, would be interested to know what the math says. FG was my least favorite option, but only up 3 I understand why you don't want to punt when there's a decent chance you only gain 20-25 yards and a FG sends you to OT.
Edit, just found this on google/no idea how accurate it is, but this 4th down decision calculator says go for the 1st down, gives you 85% chance of winning, vs. 80% each for punting and trying the FG:
https://rbsdm.com/stats/fourth_calculator/
Last edited by jawhoo; 09-25-2022 at 06:29 PM.