I would be curious to know what the Lions' scouts think of him.

Remember when they drafted Andre Ware because he put up ridiculous numbers in college?

I haven't watched any Tua-specific film, but I definitely wonder if he's accurate enough to be an elite NFL QB -- how much of what he did in college was because he had a ridiculous OL and the best WRs? I don't know.

I'd happily take Tua in the mid-teens, but I'm not taking him at 3.

Tua is pretty legit. His main concerns are size and injury history. His QB talent is 2nd to none as far as demonstrating it in college. Yeah, he was throwing to NFL WR's, but they were also squaring off against NFL DB's, and he still put passes on a dime where only his guys could get it.

The way I think of it, there are sort of 3 types of QB's that go in the first round.

1. Guys that look the part of the NFL QB but you have concerns about their ability to perform at the next level. They tend to go more in the mid to back half of the round. There is some boom or bust here though. Think Dwayne Haskins vs. Patrick Mahomes.

2. Guys that are must drafts if you are QB needy and they are still on the board. They tend to go in the top 10. Think the quadfecta a few years back of Mayfield, Darnold, Rosen, and Allen. If there weren't 4 of them to chose from, any one of them is probably the #1 overall to Cleveland that year.

3. Guys that are locks to go 1 overall. You mortgage the future of your franchise to move up to get them if you need a QB. If you were lucky enough to suck enough to get #1 overall when one of these guys is on the board, congrats on winning the lottery. If you find yourself picking in a class where 2 of these guys exist, then don't screw it up. Think Petyon Manning/Ryan Leaf. Andrew Luck/RG3. Maybe Burrow/Tua?

I think there is no doubt Tua is at least a #2 level QB. I think he's almost certainly in category 3 without the injury concern. He's gone by 5, 100% chance of that. The question is, do you want to trade other picks to move up for a guy whose career path might look more like RG3's? Or do you just stand pat at your spot in the draft and hope he falls to you, and if not, roll with what you've got?

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-tua-t...se-qb-prospect

Number 3 on the ringers big board https://nfldraft.theringer.com/?_ga=...061.1578080623

Yup hes a good QB prospect. If his health is good like were hearing you draft him and hold him ransom from other teams. If they wont pony up for him then we hold him and trade Stafford next season. Its not often you're in a position to get a big time QB prospect. Gotta take the value thats on the table and figuring the draft goes Burrow Young we take the most valuble player on the board.

I'd still love to trade back esp to 5 where we could get either Simmons/Okudah + picks but if we took Tua I think that would be pretty exciting. It would for sure give me some faith that Quinn has some balls to make a franchise changing play.

the team was 3-4-1 when Stafford went down last season. he had 64.3% completion and was on pace for 4998 yards, 38 TD 10 INT. the team did a perfect tank without him, 0-8. if his medicals are good, the quickest path to a contender is to stick with Stafford and use that premium #3 overall pick for an impact defender or trade down for impact defender+depth.

Tua is an underdog to ever be as good as Stafford is right now, Tua is high on big boards but Stafford was #1 overall his draft class and has lived up to the hype.

Completely true in a vacuum, but Tua would be $15-$20M less against the cap for the next 4 seasons that Stafford. That's where the value lies and why the NFL motto right now is "win on a rookie's QBs cheap first contract." Your best bet to win the super bowl is to find near-elite or elite play out of a rookie QB years 2-4, and use the salary cap savings to put other elite players around him and on defense.

The real problem is Bob and Matty-P are in do-or-die mode in 2020, so they can't draft Tua for the long term.

If Tua didn't get injured we wouldn't be talking about whether he'd be #1, we'd be talking about whether he's gonna be the best QB in NFL history. THATS how good he is. Do I think he's worth the gamble. **** yea. But like one poster basically put it, the Lions Organization does not have the DNA to make this pick so we're wasting our time even talking about this. One of the worst organizations in the history of humanity does not have the balls nor the intelligence to make THAT pick. We should accept that reality and move on. We're talking an organization that draft TEs in the top 10 here. Let's get a grip folks.

So you're saying we're drafting an OT at 3? Sounds right.

I have resigned myself to Okudah so I'm really hoping its Okudah plus something. Will be disappointed if Lions have to take him at 3.

Get ready for disappointment imo. In typical lions fashion it seems like the stars have aligned to stop them from getting much of a haul from MIA or LAC - the injury concern on Tua combined with the upside will make both teams content to sit still at 5 and 6 and draft Tua or Herbert at their current spot. MIA will take their pick and LAC will be content with the other - neither will love one QB more than the other to trade up with DET to secure him. I hope I'm wrong, but that's the strong vibe I'm getting from the mocks and chatter I've seen.

That means trading back means trading way way back, which would in theory be possible and maybe involve multiple 1st and 2nd round picks, however I think Bob and Matt value 2021 picks at near-zero right now. It's going to be near impossible to swing a trade to mid-round or later unless there's impact veterans included, and that seems super rare.

I think we're taking Okudah @ 3. And while I'm excited to add him to the team, I'm disappointed too we won't be able to turn this draft slot into more than one very good player.

The thing with the draft is all the mocks and analysis falls victim to group think. They all eventually converge on roughly the same expected outcomes. Sometimes that's for good reason. But you get the occasional move no one saw coming, like the Bears moving up 1 pick for Trubisky. NFL GMs don't give 2 shits what Mel Kiper or any other draft expert says. They have their own systems, their own draft boards, and they are going to stick to it, and we have NO idea what those look like.

The decision of when and who draft at QB is probably the most important decision a GM will ever make. They can completely turn around a franchise like no other draft pick can. You do not want to let a future HOF QB slip through your fingers, but you also don't want to look stupid and trade up for a bust.

I think you're right in that some of the value of the #3 pick comes from how close you think Herbert is to Tua or other QBs that will fall to you. Here's my opinion: it's not even close.

While I haven't probably done 1/10 of 1% of the "scouting" on these QBs that NFL GMs have, here's what I've seen. Tua is the best QB in this draft. If Tua stays healthy in the NFL, he will be more successful than Burrow. I'll bet on it. I also think QB injuries are less of a concern than other positions. With some guys, if they suffer a serious injury and lose a step they lose their magic. That rarely happens with QBs. You have two of the best QBs in the NFL right now playing into their 40s after getting beaten up and they are still ticking.

Burrow is great, but I just don't see elite skills there. There's a reason he couldn't beat out Haskins at OSU. His Junior campaign was mediocre at best. LSU's offense made it really easy for him to be successful, and I don't think he's going to get that type of help in the NFL. He can still be good or even very good in the NFL, but I don't see the accuracy it takes to be a future hall of famer there. Tua was putting balls through the tightest of windows for 2.5 full seasons at Bama. His arm is pure money, and as far as I can tell, completely uninjured. I haven't seen accuracy like his from a college QB since, I'll just say it, Peyton Manning. It would not surprise me in the slightest (OK, I'd be a little surprised) if Tua went #1 and Burrow slid to #5.

So in summary, don't believe the fog out there in draft land. My extremely amateur scouting tells me that some team should really be trying to move up to take Tua. If I'm LA or Miami, I hope Cincy takes Burrow, then I start calling WAS, DET, and NYG, and give them just about anything they are asking for to get Tua.

I hope you're right! I agree entirely that Tua has a very high chance (relative to other top-5 QB picks) of becoming a superstar. Take away his injury, and you'd have a clear top-3 tier in this year's draft, which would all but guarantee Detroit at either getting Chase Young, or getting a haul as the team in the top 3 who won't take a QB* and CY is already gone. Tua's injury muddies the water - to your point, we don't know how much though and won't find out 'til draft day.

* - This is no knock on Stafford, I think he's a very good QB, but if I was GM I'd draft Tua at 3 and trade Stafford for what I could get for him (couple of mid-round picks?). I'm not saying I'm 100% sure Tua will be better than Stafford, I'm saying there's a good chance he can be as-good or better than Stafford, and is guaranteed to be much, much, much cheaper. Adding 16 games of Stafford + Jeff Okudah to this team does not turn us into a super bowl contender this year; I think the odds of winning a super bowl in the next 5 years are higher with Tua and his contract over that span than with Matt and Matt's contract. But of course, Bob isn't drafting to maximize his odds in the next 5 years (which is why owners should never have do-or-die years for their front offices or coaches...)

Between Hebert and Tua theirs gotta be a team that is going to move up. teams always move up for QBs. Even if you're the fins at 5 you've got a preference and not letting someone else hop over you for your guy is worth it. Even if we can only get a extra 2nd+4th out of the fins moving back to 5 you lock up Okudah or Simmons possibly both on the board still.

We heard last week "Tua failed two teams physical including one in the top 10 of the draft" from sources. I mean this could easily be BS made up to hurt his draft value. Havent heard this anywhere else. For all we know Tua could be a huge target.

If we just stand pat this draft and take Okudah at 3 and Quinn says something like "the offers on the table just werent that good" he sucks.

stafford has another 5 years of his prime, maybe 2-3 more of soft decline. drafting tua is dumb

At $33M/year starting next season.

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Maybe. I think it will depend on what happens after #3. If Tua/Herbert slip to 5&6 or get drafted wherever they fall to, then that says there was no market. If teams start jockeying for position on QB's after #3 then yeah, then Quinn was too locked in on Okudah to see the value in the trades.

I do think Quinn has a tendency to lock in on certain guys and maybe over-draft players he covets rather than let the board come to him. I think he's actually done a decent job this year shoring up big holes in the roster where they don't have to address any one position in the draft. Obviously the defense could use all the help it can get, but if they end up trading back to a spot where all the value is at OT or WR, they can certainly do that.

I just cant believe if you're the Chargers or Fins planning on taking a Hebert/Tua you wouldnt give us a little something to move up and get the QB you prefer AND make sure nobody trades above you. As I stated I'm not even talking multiple picks even if its a 2nd and a 4th it makes sense for us to move back to 5 or 6 as we can still get one of Okudah/Simmons.

If we trade further back in the top 12 or something then yeah OT would be where the value is. Seems like we are always drafting Oline early. WR is stacked in this draft you dont even need to take one in the first round. Its so deep we could find a star in the 2nd-3rd. Looking at mocks I'm seeing quite a few CBs going through the late 1st-2nd that could fill our needs without using a early pick.

Say we trade back to 5 or 6 picking up a extra 2nd rounder in the process. We could go Simmons/Okudah in the 1st and then in the 2nd round pick up 2 of AJ.Epenesa,Ruiz,Tee.Higgins,K.Fulton. If we came out of the round 2 with 3 of these guys thats a slam dunk draft no matter what we do the rest the way. Just a 2nd rounder is actually low value for us moving back by the way.

The other interesting trade back candidate would be the Raiders. Say Gruden has his eyes on Tua. Thats what 12 and 19 +this years 2nd and then next years 2nd? I'm not looking up a pick calculator or anything that might be short selling us. I think with how good this draft is though those are really valuable picks. 12+19 we are looking at D.Brown/OT/top WR then at 19 we could go CB/OT/WR depending on what we took and value is there.

Its really crucial we trade back this season. So many quality players available outside the top picks.

The ringer just wrote about us in a aritcle https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2020/4...tua-tagovailoa

Just caught this Peter King mock draf from a reddit link. Hes got us moving down to 5 with the fins.

5. Detroit (trade with Miami)—Jeff Okudah, cornerback, Ohio State
Not sure of the return for Detroit, but let’s say Lions GM Bob Quinn deals the third overall pick for the fifth and 39th. Most Lions’ fans will scream and say, “Quinn should have gotten one of the other Miami first-rounders, either at 18 or 26.” I’m going to ask you this, Lions fans: If I told you before the draft that you could exit the weekend with CB1 on your first pick (Okudah), RB3 (Wisconsin’s Jonathan Taylor) on the second and G1 (Louisiana’s Robert Hunt) on the third, would you be doing cartwheels about that? Acquiring the 39th overall pick while still ensuring you’d get the corner you want would likely allow that.

One last thing: In the first draft in Carolina Panthers history, GM Bill Polian traded down with Cincinnati from one to five in the first round and acquired the 36th pick (only) in return. Polian didn’t have another trade option, and he didn’t want to pay the player he really wanted, quarterback Kerry Collins, first-pick money. So he picked the player he’d have taken at one, Collins, fifth, and had a bonus second-round pick. The point is, sometimes you take a deal even if it’s not the one the trade chart says you should make, because you’re going to improve your team by doing it.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.co...ia-peter-king/

Hes basically thinking the same as me. Even if we get just a 2nd were still going to end up with the same guy we take at 3 + a really good player.

Way to go bob ****ing quinn. You can't tell me that the chargers wanted Herbert over Tua. There was probably value there. Could've got more picks probably.

I see SOME lions fans on reddit and POD saying "no offers the Fins and Chargers knew they didnt have to move". I say no way they didnt at least offer a 2nd rounder to make sure a rogue team doesnt move up and take your guy. This is your QB of the future you want the guy you want.

What I see happening was they offered up just a 2nd and BQ looked at the draft value chart and knew he was losing value on the chart and wouldnt move. BQ always talks about wanting to move down in drafts but he never does. He seems to play if safe in the 1st round with the guy who everyone mocks us to take then reach for a system guy later.

Okudah is a good player. I'm not hating on him at all.

Siiiiggghhh.

Sounds like there just wasn't a market to drop back a couple spaces. For a GM told to win this year or he's gone, I can't fault Quinn for not wanting to go back past top 5 or 6.

Instead, will just marvel how the lions somehow can't get a red cent for a franchise QB spot, compared to Wentz, RG3, etc. This franchise is cursed. Obviously.

****ing sigh.


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If their really wasnt any offers thats because everyone knew who the Lions were going to pick. We should of made it look like we were going to take Tua. As I brought up months ago if nobody behind us believes us then you take him. Now the Fins are forced to make a deal with you if they want their guy. The Fins and Chargers knew exactly what the lions and the Giants were going to do and outplayed us.

Yep. 3 QBs taken in the top 6 and the Lions had #3 and walked away with a CB. Do you really think if the Lions/Giants grab the QBs and hold them hostage that Miami and LA are just going to grab OTs and ride with their barely replacement level QBs? QB is the one position in the NFL you need at least an upper half level talent to compete. Washington taking Chase makes sense, but after that the value drops off a cliff and the path to a franchise QB goes through you. I guess you rarely see GMs do this. The last time I remember it happening was SD drafting Manning and then trading for Rivers, which was a baller move on their part.

Anyways on to rounds 2 and 3. This is a pretty deep draft so if Quinn does well he should be able to get 2 or 3 more starters tonight. I wouldn't mind seeing AJ Epenesa or JK Dobbins at 35.

Yeah I'd of took Epenesa for sure.

I didnt want a 2nd round RB at all. I know some draft sites had Swift over Dobbins and Taylor but if I was going RB I'd of went 1. Taylor 2.Dobbins 3.Swift. I actually caught these guys quite a bit in game over their careers even Swift. I will say like every draft site had Swift going first of these guys.

On a bright note Swift was projected in the 1st round everywhere. To me RB isnt the position to put us over the edge though.

Epenesa may be falling to the 3rd round? I know he was pretty bad at the combine but looked good in college.